Chances of a human pandemic

[Sally Furniss]

Dr Michael Perdue of the WHO's Global Influenza Program.
Asked about the chances of a human pandemic, Dr Perdue said that on a scale of 1 to 10 "maybe we're midway, around 4 or 5 but the next question is, 'How long does it take to get to the number 6?' These are very difficult questions to answer."

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/bird-flu-spreads-amid-pandemic-fears/2006/02/27/1141020021180.html

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Chances of a human pandemic

I wonder how he works that out. If he is using the number of mutations required. Then we are up to about number 8.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Chances of a human pandemic

AnneZ, I need an answer. I'm going on vacation to Egypt for 10 days in 4 weeks. I'll be reporter on the ground.

This man's news is the same conclusion I've reached. It's still a while away.
It's coming, but it's still a few months away, even in Indonesia.

If anyone thinks its coming sooner, please post.
Thx,

[DB]

Re: Chances of a human pandemic

Watch how fast Chikungunya spreads, that will tell you how long you have.

In 6 Weeks it infected 160k people.

So in essence you have weeks.

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Chances of a human pandemic

AnneZ, I need an answer. I'm going on vacation to Egypt for 10 days in 4 weeks. I'll be reporter on the ground.

4 weeks is a long time. So the answer is to have refundable tickets just in case you decide not to go.

[Bruce]

Re: Chances of a human pandemic

I'll be reporter on the ground.

10 days at 3500 USD a day minimum, tax free and even then there should be a reason, why someone else could not be sent. That?s my fee.