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One point not mentioned above is the role of Command & Control. This is an area where, after decades of obscene military spending, the US is pre-eminent.
If we are planning for a 1918 scale Pandemic what can we learn from history? Consider the pros & cons now vs. then.
Firstly medical advances seem an obvious pro but on closer examination how useful would they be? If I caught H5N1 today I would probably be in a negative pressure isolation tent, on a respirator in the ICU getting Tamiflu with excellent medical care. In a Pandemic the most I would realistically expect would be some Tamiflu, if they had not run out. The vaccine would be months away and the Tamiflu stocks would be rapidly depleted by prophylactic usage, in any event I would expect the virus to rapidly develop resistance in this environment. In addition, unlike 1918, the developed world has an enormous number of healthy active people who not be without there medication (Blood pressure, Diabetics, Asthmatics, Assorted Heart patients etc.).
Acting both for and against is the greatly increased speed and ubiquity of our communication systems. On the plus side the internet, cellular phones & military technology could allow us a command and control structure working in near real time. For the cons we have the air transport system, just-in-time stocking and globalization. In 1918 we were coming to the end of WW1, the counties of the world had been adapting, since 1914, to surviving on there own resources. Now you have only to glance around your home or supermarket to see the interdependencies created by 60 years of uninterrupted global trade. Consider the impact if countries, or regions, ban all cross boarder traffic by people or goods. An essential first step in any attempt to contain or slow the Pandemic would be the grounding of all air traffic worldwide; regretfully it is unlikely that there will be the political will to take this step early enough to be of any use.
Another need is to actively probe for choke points in the supply & distribution system now so they can be alleviated. This is standard military procedure, the Allies in WWII identified German ball bearing production as a potential weakness and bombed their factories. Where are yours?
If we are planning for a 1918 scale Pandemic what can we learn from history? Consider the pros & cons now vs. then.
Firstly medical advances seem an obvious pro but on closer examination how useful would they be? If I caught H5N1 today I would probably be in a negative pressure isolation tent, on a respirator in the ICU getting Tamiflu with excellent medical care. In a Pandemic the most I would realistically expect would be some Tamiflu, if they had not run out. The vaccine would be months away and the Tamiflu stocks would be rapidly depleted by prophylactic usage, in any event I would expect the virus to rapidly develop resistance in this environment. In addition, unlike 1918, the developed world has an enormous number of healthy active people who not be without there medication (Blood pressure, Diabetics, Asthmatics, Assorted Heart patients etc.).
Acting both for and against is the greatly increased speed and ubiquity of our communication systems. On the plus side the internet, cellular phones & military technology could allow us a command and control structure working in near real time. For the cons we have the air transport system, just-in-time stocking and globalization. In 1918 we were coming to the end of WW1, the counties of the world had been adapting, since 1914, to surviving on there own resources. Now you have only to glance around your home or supermarket to see the interdependencies created by 60 years of uninterrupted global trade. Consider the impact if countries, or regions, ban all cross boarder traffic by people or goods. An essential first step in any attempt to contain or slow the Pandemic would be the grounding of all air traffic worldwide; regretfully it is unlikely that there will be the political will to take this step early enough to be of any use.
Another need is to actively probe for choke points in the supply & distribution system now so they can be alleviated. This is standard military procedure, the Allies in WWII identified German ball bearing production as a potential weakness and bombed their factories. Where are yours?
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