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State plans for 'inevitable' flu pandemic
Officials scrambling to prepare for predicted worst-case scenario
Paige St. John
News Journal capital bureau
TALLAHASSEE -- Florida health officials are prepared to see as many as 3.2 million residents stricken and as many as 20,000 killed in the event of an influenza pandemic.
Nearly 450 deaths would occur in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties under a worst-case scenario, the officials say.
They say the question is not if but when such an emergency will occur.
State response plans for an "inevitable" flu pandemic depict a grim scene that includes shortages of hospital beds and morgue space.
In the anticipated six to eight months it would take to find a vaccine to stop the outbreak, Florida also expects shortages in anti-viral medication to at least treat it.
The state's share of current national stockpiles would provide medication to less than 2 percent of those who would need it.
Gov. Jeb Bush meets today in Tallahassee with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt for a state conference on influenza. Bush will stress preparation and early response; Leavitt is scheduled to announce $4.6 million in federal funding for state planning.
"The important thing is, in a pandemic-type situation, to identify early," Bush said, "which is why we have early detection systems in place at all of our hospitals, so that we can identify and quarantine people before it becomes such a serious problem that it impacts the work force and impacts everything else."
Behind the scenes, with federal urging, Florida is scrambling.
Last month, Florida Health Secretary Rony Francois told Roche, a Swiss drug manufacturer, that Florida would -- if it has surplus to sell -- buy $33.8 million worth of anti-viral medication, enough to treat 1.8 million of the more than 18 million state residents.
If there's a list, the state wants to be high on it, said Department of Health Communications Director Irv "Doc" Kokol. "Roche has gone out and said we're like No. 5," he said.
The federal government has pledged to supply Florida enough to treat an additional 2.8 million residents, he said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends states tell residents how vaccinations programs would work, who would get first access and what to do to help contain the disease.
In Florida, that has not yet begun, although the state has readied draft press releases that reassure residents and admonish them to wash eggs before handling and to cook chicken thoroughly.
"If there is a pandemic, I promise you there will be a very aggressive communications strategy," Bush said.