State (FL) plans for 'inevitable' flu pandemic

[Mellie]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060216/NEWS01/602160329/1006/NEWS05

Published - February, 16, 2006
State plans for 'inevitable' flu pandemic
Officials scrambling to prepare for predicted worst-case scenario

Paige St. John
News Journal capital bureau

TALLAHASSEE -- Florida health officials are prepared to see as many as 3.2 million residents stricken and as many as 20,000 killed in the event of an influenza pandemic.

Nearly 450 deaths would occur in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties under a worst-case scenario, the officials say.

They say the question is not if but when such an emergency will occur.

State response plans for an "inevitable" flu pandemic depict a grim scene that includes shortages of hospital beds and morgue space.

In the anticipated six to eight months it would take to find a vaccine to stop the outbreak, Florida also expects shortages in anti-viral medication to at least treat it.

The state's share of current national stockpiles would provide medication to less than 2 percent of those who would need it.

Gov. Jeb Bush meets today in Tallahassee with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt for a state conference on influenza. Bush will stress preparation and early response; Leavitt is scheduled to announce $4.6 million in federal funding for state planning.

"The important thing is, in a pandemic-type situation, to identify early," Bush said, "which is why we have early detection systems in place at all of our hospitals, so that we can identify and quarantine people before it becomes such a serious problem that it impacts the work force and impacts everything else."

Behind the scenes, with federal urging, Florida is scrambling.

Last month, Florida Health Secretary Rony Francois told Roche, a Swiss drug manufacturer, that Florida would -- if it has surplus to sell -- buy $33.8 million worth of anti-viral medication, enough to treat 1.8 million of the more than 18 million state residents.

If there's a list, the state wants to be high on it, said Department of Health Communications Director Irv "Doc" Kokol. "Roche has gone out and said we're like No. 5," he said.

The federal government has pledged to supply Florida enough to treat an additional 2.8 million residents, he said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends states tell residents how vaccinations programs would work, who would get first access and what to do to help contain the disease.

In Florida, that has not yet begun, although the state has readied draft press releases that reassure residents and admonish them to wash eggs before handling and to cook chicken thoroughly.

"If there is a pandemic, I promise you there will be a very aggressive communications strategy," Bush said.

[Sally Furniss]

Bird flu could hit Florida first


Bird flu could hit Florida first

International contacts make the state a prime entry point if a pandemic begins, a state summit warns. The advice? Get ready now.

By LETITIA STEIN
Published February 17, 2006

TALLAHASSEE - Gov. Jeb Bush expects Florida to be among the first bird flu cases if a pandemic spreads to the United States.
In a visit to Florida, Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt warned Thursday that bird flu could reach the nation within 30 days - once it starts passing widely from person to person.
Bush predicts Florida would get the first wave.
"We have lots of international air travel. We have cruise ships. We have interaction with the rest of the world the likes of which is quite unique," Bush said. "This is a really high priority for us, maybe more than other states."
Those grim observations kicked off a state summit on a pandemic outbreak. Leading national experts confessed that we can't know exactly what will happen - or when. But the world is overdue for a contagious heath disaster, whether it's bird flu or some other new strain. An outbreak as serious as the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic would sicken 90-million and kill 2-million nationally.
The only thing to do: Get ready.
After eight hurricanes in two years, Bush noted that Floridians have a head start in creating a "culture of preparedness."
He wants every family to make a household plan and stockpile groceries for disaster, whether a hurricane or a terrorist attack or bird flu.
But Leavitt cautioned that hurricanes aren't perfect training for pandemics. For all its devastation, Hurricane Katrina, for example, pummelled only a few states over a short period of time.
"A pandemic, on the other hand, would be happening in Seattle and Santa Fe and Sarasota," he said, noting that it would roll out in six- to eight-week waves over a year or more. "We will not have the resources to respond to communities from East to West and North to South."
So what would happen if a hurricane hits Florida during a bird flu outbreak?
"Boy, don't even ask it," Bush said.
Emergency shelters are the obvious danger, Bush noted. Healthy people would want to stay away from those contagious with bird flu - a difficulty during forced evacuations.
Quarantines are the start of the logistical challenges during a pandemic outbreak.
Florida could have to screen for illness the tourists arriving at airports, which ultimately may shut down. There aren't enough hospital beds to accommodate sick masses. It's not clear how to distribute Tamiflu, an antiviral medicine effective immediately after symptoms appear.
Not to mention the lack of vaccines.
It will take the U.S. three to five years to stockpile doses of a vaccine. Once that's ready, there's no guarantee the vaccine will work as the flu mutates.
On the national level, Leavitt is preparing for the likelihood that basic medicine would be the only health care available at the onset. To naysayers, he says the country can't afford to take chances.
"One might ask, is this Y2K? Is this the little boy who cried wolf? Is this really going to happen?" he said. "Pandemics happen, and one will ultimately be with us."
The federal government has allocated $4.6-million for Florida to start preparing.
The World Health Organization reports that bird flu has killed 91 people since 2003, linked to infected poultry. Scientists worry it could trigger a pandemic if it starts passing person to person.
Although Florida has detailed plans for a pandemic - constantly under revision - state leaders have not predetermined at what point attractions such as Disney World would close. Local governments, schools and businesses need to consider how to handle a bird flu outbreak.
Meanwhile, the state is looking to stockpile basics such as hand sanitizer and face masks to slow the spread of any influenza outbreak, Bush said.
His biggest fear: Disaster would compound if people panic.
"This is all strange, scary stuff," Bush said. "The more we can explain exactly what is going on, the more people will make rational choices, rather than act on their fears."
Letitia Stein can be reached at lstein@sptimes.com or 850 224-7263.
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/02/17/St...d_hit_Fl.shtml