ECDC assessment on Avian flu outbreak in Southeast Asia indicates no change in risk to human health

[tetano]

ECDC concludes in its rapid risk assessment that there is no evidence "of the virus A(H5N1) having become more adapted to humans" and the direct risk to the health of EU/EEA population is very low.

The risk assessment was prompted by a report from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization on a potential increase in A(H5N1). The FAO report highlights an outbreak of A(H5N1) in poultry and wild bird population in Southeast Asia "with unpredictable risks to human health".

Through consultations with various experts, ECDC recognises that any increase in outbreaks or changes of distribution of the outbreaks need to be monitored. However, in this particular case and from a human health perspective, the assessment is that "there are currently no indications of any significant change in the human epidemiology associated with the clade or strain of A(H5N1)."

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/Lists/News/ECDC_DispForm.aspx?List=32e43ee8-e230-4424-a783-85742124029a&ID=477

[Laidback Al]

Re: ECDC assessment on Avian flu outbreak in Southeast Asia indicates no change in risk to human health

. . . However, in this particular case and from a human health perspective, the assessment is that "there are currently no indications of any significant change in the human epidemiology associated with the clade or strain of A(H5N1)."

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/...124029a&ID=477

OK, no significant change today. But what about tomorrow, or the future. H5N1 has already stricken more than 500 people and killed more than 300. And those are only the cases we known about. Of course we know it hasn't changed yet, otherwise we would all be cowering in fear of the pandemic.

If the ECDC wants to be helpful it could discuss the likelihood that such a change could occur in the future.