Tweet
On 12 March 2012 ECDC published its annual risk assessment on seasonal influenza 2011/2012 in Europe. ECDC points out that on this occasion the seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe started unusually late and unlike the last few winters have not followed any particular geographical progression.
The annual EU season influenza risk assessment follows a structure that was established in the 2009 pandemic and gives an early description of the epidemics of seasonal influenza in the EU/EEA countries drawing on the experience of the first affected countries. The assessment identifies the special features of the current season, especially areas where public health or clinical actions are justified. It also highlights areas of uncertainty and therefore priorities for further work. The first ECDC seasonal influenza risk assessment was published in January 2011.
Virological surveillance data for the season shows that the epidemics have so far been dominated by the A(H3N2) viruses, but recently the proportion of B viruses has increased. The data also shows that some A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are also circulating, although these are far lower in numbers than in the previous two seasons. However, they are over-represented among the people most severely affected that have been hospitalised with a confirmed infection. Antiviral resistance to the neuramindase inhibitors is almost non-existent this season.
At this stage, the role that B viruses will play towards the end of the season is uncertain. Other areas of uncertainty are the degree of effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine in a season when there is an imperfect match between the vaccine and the circulating A(H3N2) viruses and the level of premature mortality that can be expected in older people due to the dominance of the virus A(H3N2). It will be difficult to tease apart the effects due to the influenza from those consequences of the cold weather.
Related links:
See the full ECDC report: ECDC risk assessment on Seasonal influenza 2011/2012 in Europe (EU/EEA countries)
ECDC public health development, 1 March 2012: WHO recommendation on influenza virus vaccines for the northern hemisphere 2012-2013 season
Eurosurveillance, 1 March 2012: Overrepresentation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus among severe influenza cases in the 2011/12 season in four European countries
ECDC risk assessment 2010/2011: Seasonal influenza 2010?2011 in Europe (EU/EEA countries), January 2011in
Read more about influenza on ECDC web portal:
ECDC?s Seasonal influenza web pages
ECDC Director?s statement on influenza, 16 December 2011: While epidemics have not yet started across Europe there is still time to protect yourself against influenza
Read more: ECDC annual seasonal influenza risk assessments
The ECDC risk assessments are produced within an annual cycle which relates to the ECDC approach to severity of influenza. It is produced by a series of independent experts in the EU and draws on reports from national influenza representatives in the first affected countries in Europe. ECDC is grateful to the input from the experts and the representatives. Read more about the European approach to informing responses to the severity of influenza epidemics and pandemic
The ECDC annual risk assessments follows a WHO recommendation accepted by the World Health Assembly following the report from the independent report on the handling of the 2009 pandemic (the Fineberg Report)
The annual EU season influenza risk assessment follows a structure that was established in the 2009 pandemic and gives an early description of the epidemics of seasonal influenza in the EU/EEA countries drawing on the experience of the first affected countries. The assessment identifies the special features of the current season, especially areas where public health or clinical actions are justified. It also highlights areas of uncertainty and therefore priorities for further work. The first ECDC seasonal influenza risk assessment was published in January 2011.
Virological surveillance data for the season shows that the epidemics have so far been dominated by the A(H3N2) viruses, but recently the proportion of B viruses has increased. The data also shows that some A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are also circulating, although these are far lower in numbers than in the previous two seasons. However, they are over-represented among the people most severely affected that have been hospitalised with a confirmed infection. Antiviral resistance to the neuramindase inhibitors is almost non-existent this season.
At this stage, the role that B viruses will play towards the end of the season is uncertain. Other areas of uncertainty are the degree of effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine in a season when there is an imperfect match between the vaccine and the circulating A(H3N2) viruses and the level of premature mortality that can be expected in older people due to the dominance of the virus A(H3N2). It will be difficult to tease apart the effects due to the influenza from those consequences of the cold weather.
Related links:
See the full ECDC report: ECDC risk assessment on Seasonal influenza 2011/2012 in Europe (EU/EEA countries)
ECDC public health development, 1 March 2012: WHO recommendation on influenza virus vaccines for the northern hemisphere 2012-2013 season
Eurosurveillance, 1 March 2012: Overrepresentation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus among severe influenza cases in the 2011/12 season in four European countries
ECDC risk assessment 2010/2011: Seasonal influenza 2010?2011 in Europe (EU/EEA countries), January 2011in
Read more about influenza on ECDC web portal:
ECDC?s Seasonal influenza web pages
ECDC Director?s statement on influenza, 16 December 2011: While epidemics have not yet started across Europe there is still time to protect yourself against influenza
Read more: ECDC annual seasonal influenza risk assessments
The ECDC risk assessments are produced within an annual cycle which relates to the ECDC approach to severity of influenza. It is produced by a series of independent experts in the EU and draws on reports from national influenza representatives in the first affected countries in Europe. ECDC is grateful to the input from the experts and the representatives. Read more about the European approach to informing responses to the severity of influenza epidemics and pandemic
The ECDC annual risk assessments follows a WHO recommendation accepted by the World Health Assembly following the report from the independent report on the handling of the 2009 pandemic (the Fineberg Report)
