Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada

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Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(1), 27–31. Zhang et al. (2009)

Background:
The threat of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) is still causing widespread public concern. A comprehensive understanding of the epidemiology of 1918 pandemic influenza commonly referred to as the Spanish flu may be helpful in offering insight into control strategies for the new pandemic.

Objective:
We explore how the preparedness for a pandemic at the community and individual level impacts the spread of the virus by comparing the transmissibility of the 1918 Spanish flu in two Canadian cities: Montreal and Winnipeg, bearing in mind that each pandemic is unique and the current one may not follow the pattern of the 1918 outbreak.

Methods:
The historical epidemiological data obtained for Montreal and Winnipeg in Canada is analyzed to estimate the basic reproduction number which is the most important summary measure of transmission potential of the pandemic.

Results:
The transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus in Winnipeg in the fall of 1918 was found to be much lower than in Montreal based on the estimated reproduction number obtained assuming different serial intervals which are the time between onsets of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case.

Conclusion:
The early preparedness and public health control measures could suggest an explanation for the fact that the number of secondary cases generated by a primary case was significantly reduced in Winnipeg comparing to it in Montreal.

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Re: Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada

From the study:
A vaccine prepared from micro-organisms infecting the respiratory tract of those suffering from the disease was to be used as a prophylactic to raise the immunity of those inoculated against respiratory infection in Winnipeg 7,32 It was reported that in a sample of 528 soldiers admitted to a Winnipeg hospital in the 1918 pandemic influenza, no soldier who had taken two doses of the vaccine died.

Winnipeg had lower number of secondary cases for a primary case than Montreal during the initial phase of the pandemic, which may be due to the difference in response times and methods between the two cities.