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Influenza is a crafty opponent. Just when researchers think they might know where it's headed next, it mutates. New strains form constantly, allowing the virus to evade detection by the human immune system, and these new strains can turn into pandemics with little to no warning. In 1918, the H1N1 subtype caused the most serious pandemic to date, killing 50 million people worldwide. That disaster was followed by the H2N2 pandemic in 1957, the H3N2 in 1968, and the resurgence last year of H1N1, now also known as swine flu.
To predict what the next dangerous strain will look like, researchers are trying to develop more sophisticated models of the biology and evolution of the virus. "If I was to make a prediction, I'd say that the H2 strain of the virus could cause the next pandemic," says Klaus Stohr, director of influenza vaccine franchises at Novartis and former head of the World Health Organization's global influenza program. But he admits that predictions like his are just educated guesses. Above all, he says, "we need better models that could genetically predict which subtype will cause the next pandemic?that would be a real breakthrough. That, in my view, could be a Nobel Prize-winning discovery."
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To predict what the next dangerous strain will look like, researchers are trying to develop more sophisticated models of the biology and evolution of the virus. "If I was to make a prediction, I'd say that the H2 strain of the virus could cause the next pandemic," says Klaus Stohr, director of influenza vaccine franchises at Novartis and former head of the World Health Organization's global influenza program. But he admits that predictions like his are just educated guesses. Above all, he says, "we need better models that could genetically predict which subtype will cause the next pandemic?that would be a real breakthrough. That, in my view, could be a Nobel Prize-winning discovery."
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