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Published Date: 2013-01-13 18:09:41
Subject: PRO> Influenza (06): 2013 season early start hypothesis
Archive Number: 20130113.1495601
INFLUENZA (06): 2013 EARLY START HYPOTHESIS
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A ProMED-mail post
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
Date: Sat 12 Jan 2013
From: Michael Olesen <olesen.michael@gmail.com> [edited]
I have been thinking about the influenza season this year [season 2012-2013], particularly what would account for the number of cases and its early start. I have an idea that I would like to propose and hear some feedback about.
My hunch is that we can tie some of the impact of influenza this year [2012-2013] to Hurricane Sandy. I started thinking about this during a meeting with my MN1-DMAT [Minnesota-1, Disaster Medical Assistance Team]. It was triggered by a comment about an outbreak of norovirus at the medical shelter that my team was staffing.
I started thinking that maybe the use of shelters during the hurricane brought a lot of people in much closer proximity to each other at a time when influenza was just starting to ramp up for the year but not at a time when it was symptomatic. There was clear evidence of transmission of Spanish flu during the 1918 pandemic over the summer and that it had mutated substantially during those months. I am not arguing that there was any mutation due to Hurricane Sandy but strictly that there was probably a lot of transmission in those close quarters.
The next piece of the puzzle has to do with response teams, such as mine, who provided support to those who were affected. The virus was being amplified in the shelter populations, and response teams were coming in from all over the country to help those in need. They, too, would have been exposed to the virus in the shelter settings and could have played the role of a vector in bringing the virus to airports, where they could have spread it still further, and also back to their communities of origin. Assuming that is the case, then the virus could have taken a foothold in schools, which would have increased its prevalence in other municipalities. Since this happened before the 2 main travel holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas), this would account for its presence in such large numbers and so early this year [2012-2013].
If this is the course of the influenza epidemic this year [2012-2013], there is a pretty strong argument to be made for both early vaccinations but also for mandating vaccination for kids in school and for health care workers. In both cases under the scenario I've described, it would have had a major impact on the prevalence of influenza we are seeing in the United States today.
--
Michael Olesen
Safety Officer, MN-1 DMAT
Instructional Faculty,
St. Catherine University,
St. Paul, MN
USA
[Michael Olesen's hypothesis is supported in addition by the situations in the Northern European Region and North America as recorded in recent ProMED-mail influenza updates. - Mod.CP]
Subject: PRO> Influenza (06): 2013 season early start hypothesis
Archive Number: 20130113.1495601
INFLUENZA (06): 2013 EARLY START HYPOTHESIS
*******************************************
A ProMED-mail post
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
Date: Sat 12 Jan 2013
From: Michael Olesen <olesen.michael@gmail.com> [edited]
I have been thinking about the influenza season this year [season 2012-2013], particularly what would account for the number of cases and its early start. I have an idea that I would like to propose and hear some feedback about.
My hunch is that we can tie some of the impact of influenza this year [2012-2013] to Hurricane Sandy. I started thinking about this during a meeting with my MN1-DMAT [Minnesota-1, Disaster Medical Assistance Team]. It was triggered by a comment about an outbreak of norovirus at the medical shelter that my team was staffing.
I started thinking that maybe the use of shelters during the hurricane brought a lot of people in much closer proximity to each other at a time when influenza was just starting to ramp up for the year but not at a time when it was symptomatic. There was clear evidence of transmission of Spanish flu during the 1918 pandemic over the summer and that it had mutated substantially during those months. I am not arguing that there was any mutation due to Hurricane Sandy but strictly that there was probably a lot of transmission in those close quarters.
The next piece of the puzzle has to do with response teams, such as mine, who provided support to those who were affected. The virus was being amplified in the shelter populations, and response teams were coming in from all over the country to help those in need. They, too, would have been exposed to the virus in the shelter settings and could have played the role of a vector in bringing the virus to airports, where they could have spread it still further, and also back to their communities of origin. Assuming that is the case, then the virus could have taken a foothold in schools, which would have increased its prevalence in other municipalities. Since this happened before the 2 main travel holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas), this would account for its presence in such large numbers and so early this year [2012-2013].
If this is the course of the influenza epidemic this year [2012-2013], there is a pretty strong argument to be made for both early vaccinations but also for mandating vaccination for kids in school and for health care workers. In both cases under the scenario I've described, it would have had a major impact on the prevalence of influenza we are seeing in the United States today.
--
Michael Olesen
Safety Officer, MN-1 DMAT
Instructional Faculty,
St. Catherine University,
St. Paul, MN
USA
[Michael Olesen's hypothesis is supported in addition by the situations in the Northern European Region and North America as recorded in recent ProMED-mail influenza updates. - Mod.CP]
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