Announcement

**gsgs** · May 13, 2013, 05:01 AM

Ecdc:

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/influenza-A(H7N9)-China-rapid-risk-assessment-8-may-2013.pdf

more than 3000 contacts of the cases were traced, which did not lead to the detection of
additional laboratory-confirmed cases
In China, many samples from birds were tested but less than 1% were positive
National authorities should make preparations for the occurrence of confirmed
cases in the EU/EEA Member States;
(as of 6 May
2013) and focuses on developments after the publication of ECDC?s Rapid Risk
Assessment of 3 April 2013 [1], updated 12 April 2013 [2].
Close to 3000 contacts have been followed-up and only four are reported to have
developed symptoms,
As of April 26, national and provincial avian influenza
reference laboratories in China have collected 390 628 samples for virus testing from 13 014 surveillance sites
around the country, including 2 587 live-poultry markets, 337 poultry slaughterhouses, 8 808 poultry farms, 341
wild birds habitats, 277 pig slaughterhouses, 31 pig farms, and 633 other sampling spots. It is reported that
218 897 samples were tested, including 150 837 serology samples and 68 060 pathology samples. Of the 68 060
samples, only 46 tested positive for the virus, resulting in a positive rate of 0.07% [22].

Of those animals tested positive, almost all (44) were from 14 live-poultry markets

The risk of the disease spreading to Europe via humans in the near future is considered low

It is also likely that ? as in the Jiangsu-to-Taiwan case ? there
will eventually be laboratory-confirmed cases in the EU

There is insufficient evidence to quantify the risk of A(H7N9) developing into a virus that transmits from human to
human. Close monitoring of the outbreak epidemiology, clinical features and the viruses? genetic variation over
time will be critical for assessing this risk; instruments like the Influenza Risk Assessment tool can be used for this
task [61, 62]. However, that risk is certainly not zero.

The risk of the A(H7N9) virus arriving in Europe with migratory birds cannot be quantified at this time

The
hypothesis that poultry in the affected area have been infected by wild birds has not been confirmed

**gsgs** · February 11, 2014, 05:05 AM

Re: WHO risk assessment (monthly)

WHO,2014/01/24, http://www.who.int/influenza/human_a...4January14.pdf
H5N1:the risk of community-level spread of this virus remains low
H7N9:no identifyable risk statement
H9N2:This virus does not seem to transmit easily between humans and tends to result in mild
clinical disease, therefore the current likelihood of community-level spread and public health
impact of this virus is considered low.

ECDC,2014/01/27: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publica...nuary-2014.pdf

my snippets from it:
Further information about influenza A(H7N9) detections in China can be
found at the Global Animal Disease Information System EMPRES-i [30].
30. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (EGADIS). Low pathogenic avian influenza –
H7N9 12/01/2014 – China 2014. Available from: http://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/#h=0.
intravenous pathogenicity index
Currently, the most likely scenario in China, and therefore worldwide, is that this event remains
a localised, widespread zoonotic outbreak in which the virus is transmitted sporadically to humans
in close contact with the animal reservoir. However, with the regular influenza season now ongoing
in southern China and elsewhere in the northern hemisphere there is a potential risk for co-infections
and the development of new reassortants with the possibility of increased capacity to transmit among
human populations.
Chinese New Year, which falls on 31 January this year, will dramatically increase the potential
for human exposure to both A(H7N9) and seasonal influenza viruses, increasing the risk of
reassortment in humans
Considering the spread of influenza A(H5N1) over national and geographic borders in and outside Asia,
it is nothing short of surprising that neighbouring Asian countries have not reported more cases of
influenza A(H7N9). It is possible that additional countries will be affected in the coming months.
The current influenza A(H7N9) viruses are considered to have pandemic potential [63].
63. Nicoll A, Danielsson N. A novel reassortant avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China – what are
the implications for Europe. Euro Surveill. 2013;18(15).
the risk of the disease spreading to Europe via humans in the near future is still considered low.
To date, there is no epidemiological evidence that avian influenza can be transmitted to humans
through the consumption of cooked food, notably poultry meat and eggs.
There is insufficient evidence to quantify the risk of influenza A(H7N9) developing into a virus that
transmits from human to human, thereby increasing the risk of an influenza pandemic.
Close monitoring of the outbreak epidemiology, clinical features and the genetic characteristics
of the virus will be critical for assessing this risk; instruments like the Influenza Risk Assessment
Tool (IRAT) can play a role [64,65].
The risk of increased transmission of H7N9 viruses between humans is not negligible
The risk of influenza A(H7N9) virus being transported to Europe in viraemic poultry through
legal trade is negligible
The risk of the avian influenza A(H7N9) viruses arriving in Europe with migratory birds cannot
be quantified. ECDC and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) have performed multiple
independent risk assessments in the past regarding avian influenza that also cover pathways
for avian influenza A(H7N9) [64,70,71]. The hypothesis that poultry in the affected area has
been infected by wild birds has not been confirmed but neither can it be excluded.
Surveillance in wild birds for this novel virus has not been initiated in the EU/EEA.

Announcement

WHO risk assessment (monthly)

WHO risk assessment (monthly)

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