EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 5057 suspected cases since 03/2006

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3539 total suspected cases since 03/200

Update on total number of suspected cases/people tested for bf in Egypt:

Since the outbreak of bird flu in Egypt in February 2006, 3,645 people have been tested for Avian Flu.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...82&postcount=1

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991

Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207

Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539

Total figure of human suspected case (people tested?) as of Nov 1, 2007 = 3,645

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 1, 2007 = 106 sus cases/people test for bf

[Laidback Al]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,645 total suspected cases since 03/20

Here is a graph showing the relationship of suspected to actual human cases of H5N1 in Egypt in 2007, using the numbers posted by Theresa42 above. The suspected cases are fuzzy numbers, but the data show that increased testing occurred just after the number of confirmed cases peaked in April.

[tygerkittn]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,645 total suspected cases since 03/20

Could some of these countries be giving tamiflu BEFORE they test on purpose, to fudge the numbers and keep from hurting tourism?
Sorry, I'm paranoid.

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,645 total suspected cases since 03/20

Here is a graph showing the relationship of suspected to actual human cases of H5N1 in Egypt in 2007, using the numbers posted by Theresa42 above. The suspected cases are fuzzy numbers, but the data show that increased testing occurred just after the number of confirmed cases peaked in April.

Thanks, Al!

So -- are they just testing more whenever there are bf cases around? Or do the testing numbers really reflect the numbers of people with flu-like symptoms at any given time? (The numbers do seem to vary seasonally.)

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,645 total suspected cases since 03/20

Google-translated from Arabic:

The health ministry denies the emergence of new infections of virus avian influeza
Dec 4, 2007

(...)

He has been conducting monitoring of suspected cases to about 3675 citizen, appeared all negative except 38 cases, and more governorates, which witnessed the suspect is the Western [Al Gharbiyah] 400 cases suspected, and least of Suez and Matrouh emerged as one case in each....

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=43277

So, that's ca. 30 suspected cases in the last 5 weeks since Nov 1:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991

Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207

Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285.

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3,645

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,675 total suspected cases since 03/20

Google-translated from Arabic:

Ministry of Health denies alter the bird flu virus to other types
Dec 27, 2007
Hossam Zayed wrote:

(...)

This envisages all the scientific community in the world for fear of occurrence, but it did not happen in Egypt or in any other country in the world so far. Said that the total number of human cases that have been hit by the disease, including 39 cases cured 23 cases of which 16 died and 11 cases in the governorate of Cairo and one case in Giza and the situation in the province of Fayoum and Minya governorate case and another in the city of Luxor and the number of patients who have been isolated by suspicion of the disease was even yesterday in the 3723 case all the districts and the results of analysis were negative in full....

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46787

So, that's 48 suspected cases in the last 3 weeks since Dec 4:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991

Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207

Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 3,723 total suspected cases since 03/20

Hat-tip, Solitaire!

Anything useful here Theresa?

The discovery of 19 focus of a new victim and the death yesterday of 19
Jan 2, 2007

حفني وافي وخالد وربي Avi, who doubles and Khalid, Ruba
تقدمت مصر إلي المركز الخامس عالمياً وباتت منطقة مهددة بأنفلونزا الطيور بعد إعلان وزارة الصحة وفاة الضحية رقم 19 وهي لسيدة من دمياط تدعي هانم عطوة إبراهيم 50 سنة والتي توفيت مساء أمس الأول بمستشفي الصدر بالعباسية. Egypt submitted to the fifth place globally and became the threatened Avian after the announcement of the Ministry of Health and death of the victim No. 19 and is the Lady of Damietta called ma'am Atwa Ibrahim 50 years, who died yesterday evening I Sadr Hospital starts.
وقال الدكتور نصر السيد مساعد وزير الصحة للطب الوقائي رئيس اللجنة العليا لمكافحة مرض أنفلونزا الطيور إن المرض انتشر في عشر محافظات هي الشرقية والقليوبية ودمياط وبني سويف والمنوفية وقنا والبحيرة والقاهرة والجيزة والغربية وبورسعيد والدقهلية وأكد وجود 40 بؤرة إصابة بالمرض في تلك المحافظات وأن عدد الحالات التي ظهرت في الأيام الخمس الأخيرة من ديسمبر وصلت إلي خمس حالات توفي منها أربع فيما تماثلت حالة واحدة للشفاء. Dr. Nasr said Mr. Deputy Minister of Health for Preventive Medicine Chairman of the Higher Committee for the fight against bird flu disease that spread the disease in ten provinces are Eastern and Qaliubia, Damietta, Menoufiya, Beni Suef, Qena and the lake, Cairo, Giza and the West and Port Said, Dakahliya, confirmed the presence of 40 focus of the disease in those provinces and the number of cases that have emerged in the last five days of December and arrived at the five cases died four corresponded with one case of the cure.
وأشار د. And he added. نصر إلي أن مصر احتلت المركز الخامس بين دول العالم الأكثر تضررا من المرض وهي تايلاند والصين واندونيسيا وكوريا. We insist that Egypt ranked fifth among the countries in the world most affected by the disease are Thailand, China, Indonesia and Korea.
وقال د. He d. عمرو قنديل مدير عام مكافحة الأمراض المعدية بوزارة الصحة إن عدد حالات الاشتباه في الإصابة بالمرض بلغ 3775 حالة منذ اكتشاف المرض. Amr Qandil, director general of communicable disease control Health Ministry that the number of cases of suspected infection reached 3775 cases since the discovery of the disease.
من جهة أخري احتجز عدد من المواطنين المشتبه في إصابتهم بالمرض وتم عزلهم منهم فاطمة فتحي المهدي بمستشفي الصدر بالمنصورة، كما تم عزل الطفل محمد طلعت مصطفي أبوالفضل ?3 سنوات? لاصابته بأنفلونزا الطيور بمستشفي حميات بنها وتم عزل الطفلة سارة عادل أبوشادي بمستشفي حميات زفتي ومحمد خليل عبدالقوي الحوشي بحميات دمنهور وفي مستشفي حميات المحلة الكبري احتجز هاني العشري ?34 سنة? وهدي خان للاشتباه في إصابتهما بالمرض وقد بلغت البؤر الجديدة المكتشفة حتي أمس 19 بؤرة Elsewhere detained a number of citizens suspected of illness was dismissing them Fatima Fathi Mounsourh Sadr's Mahdi Hospital, was also isolate the child Mohammed Talaat Mostafa Abulfdil ?3 years? because of his injury Avian Hospital pathogenesis Banha isolate girl Sarah was just Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti and Mohammad Khalil Abdalkoi Alhouci Bhmyat In Damanhour hospital pathogenesis Mahala detained Hani El ?34 years?, Huda Khan injured on suspicion of the disease has reached new oilfields discovered until yesterday 19 hotbed
من جهة أخري تقدم الدكتور أحمد الخولاني عضو مجلس الشعب ونقيب البيطريين ببورسعيد بطلب إحاطة لرئيس الوزراء حول نية الحكومة إصدار قانون يجرم بيع الطيور الحية في الوقت الذي تعترف فيه الحكومة بنقص في عدد المجازر الموجودة بمصر وبما لا يكفي لتغطية حاجة المستهلكين التي تصل إلي مليوني دجاجة يومياً اتهم النائب في بيانه الحكومة بتدمير صناعة الدواجن في مصر Elsewhere progress Aljulani Dr. Ahmed MP and Port Said captain veterinary request briefing to the Prime Minister about the government's intention to pass a law criminalizing the sale of live birds at a time when the government recognizes the shortage in the number of massacres in Egypt and not enough to cover the needs of consumers, which up to two million chickens daily deputy accused in his government to destroy poultry industry in Egypt

http://www.elbadeel.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8107&Itemid=1

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...93&postcount=9

So, that's 52 suspected cases in the last 7 days since Dec 24:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991

Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207

Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285

Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723

Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 02, 2008 = 3775

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / ca. 4000 suspected cases since 03/20

Google-translated from Arabic:

Mountain whistle-blower before the People's Assembly's Health Committee:
Egypt number "3" in the world in the incidence of avian influenza
Do not hide any data from the World Health Organization .. Unlike other States [Countries]
Jan 15, 2008

Magdi Abdel-Rahman wrote:

(...)

The Minister of Health: that the total number of cases in sick on the republic's level 4 thousand [suspected] cases including 43 cases of human positive and resulted in the death of 19 cases....

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...2&postcount=79

4000 sounds like a rounded figure to me -- but it sounds as though there has been at least 225 suspected cases in Egypt in the last couple of weeks:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991
Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207
Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 02, 2008 = 3775
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 4000

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases
Jan 02, 2008(?) - Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 225 recent cases

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / ca. 4000 suspected cases since 03/20

4000 sounds like a rounded figure to me -- but it sounds as though there has been at least 225 suspected cases in Egypt in the last couple of weeks:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991
Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207
Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 02, 2008 = 3775
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 4000

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases
Jan 02, 2008(?) - Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 225 recent cases

4000 was a rounded number.

The Ministry of Health spokesman said yesterday that the total number of suspected cases in Egypt since March 2006 is 4284:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125754&postcount=109

Using the Ministry's numbers, I count 509 suspected cases since Jan 2 -- the last time they released a total number. However, the Ministry of Health spokesman was quoted yesterday as saying that there was, "464 cases during this month."

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991
Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207
Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 02, 2008 = 3775
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 4000
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 17, 2008 = 4284

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases
Jan 02, 2008(?) - Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 225 recent cases
Jan 02, 2008 - Jan 17, 2008 = 509 sus cases

[gsgs]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 4284 suspected cases since 03/2006

can we continue the graph from post #17 ?

even if it's only vague estimates.

[Laidback Al]

Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 4284 suspected cases since 03/2006

can we continue the graph from post #17 ?

even if it's only vague estimates.

from Theresa42 post above:

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases
Jan 02, 2008(?) - Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 225 recent cases
Jan 02, 2008 - Jan 17, 2008 = 509 sus cases

The bar chart below graphs the suspected cumulative number of suspected cases at the end of the reporting period by week number starting at week 14 (April 3, 2007).


<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 4284 suspected cases since 03/2006

Thanks, Al!

The last bar there should actually be 509. The 225 figure was based on the rounded figure of 4000 to date that the Ministry of Health gave out a couple of days ago, but that was not accurate.

[sharon sanders]

Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 4284 suspected cases since 03/2006

Thanks everyone for keeping track of the situation.

[gsgs]

Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 4284 suspected cases since 03/2006

next week zero ? No bars in 2 consecutive weeks yet.

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / ca. 4000 suspected cases since 03/20

Hat-tip, pugmom!

Google-translated from Arabic:

OFFICIAL REPORT: cases of suspected infection bird flu approaching 5000 people
27/2/2008

Tarek wrote Secretary

A formal report of the Department of Infectious Disease Control, Ministry of Health, the rise in the number of human cases have been isolated in hospitals in the Republic on suspicion of being infected with bird flu since the disease entering Egypt February 2006 to 4904 persons, an altitude of about 2604 cases, compared to the same period last year....

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...81&postcount=1

So, that's 620 suspected cases in the last 6 weeks since Jan 17:

Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991
Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207
Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285
Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Nov 01, 2007 = 3645
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 04, 2007 = 3675
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Dec 27, 2007 = 3723
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 02, 2008 = 3775
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 4000
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Jan 17, 2008 = 4284
Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 27, 2008 = 4904

*****

Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 (9 days) = ca. 53 sus cases
mid-June 2007 - Aug 02, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 201 sus cases
Aug 02, 2007 - Nov 01, 2007 (ca. 9 weeks) = 106 sus cases
Nov 01, 2007 - Dec 04, 2007 (ca. 5 weeks) = 30 sus cases
Dec 04, 2007 - Dec 27, 2007 (ca. 3 weeks) = 48 sus cases
Dec 27, 2007 - Jan 02, 2008 (7 days) = 52 sus cases
Jan 02, 2008(?) - Jan 15, 2008 = ca. 225 recent cases
Jan 02, 2008 - Jan 17, 2008 = 509 sus cases
Jan 17, 2008 - Feb 27, 2008 (ca. 6 weeks) = 620 sus cases