EGYPT - Jan 2 - Jan 4, 2008

[HenryN]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

Please would you elaborate? Also I note that it says 'the death of his family avian'. Perhaps other family members died?

I think there was only one death. I think the translation simply said he didn't die from avian influenza (but it is unclear if that was based on his test or tests of the birds.

I think it is useful to look at cases from a risk / reward basis. If the birds tested negative and it is been several days since the teacher died, there is little risk in declaring him negative. However there is a major reward, since a positive would have tipped the scales well into the panic mode.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...t_Poultry.html

Commentary

H5N1 Spread on Farms and Backyard Holdings in Egypt

Recombinomics Commentary 12:24
January 2, 2008

more prevalent among birds in poultry farms rather than birds bread domestically. The report, complied by the Public Authority for Veterinary Services, said 25 new outbreaks were detected in Sharkia, Gharbia, Qalyubia, Menoufia, Dakahlia, Cairo, Qena, Beni Suef and Giza.

The report concluded that 90% of the poultry farms fell behind considerably in a number of biological safety benchmarks, which threatens to make it easier for the disease to spread.

The above translation describe some of H5N1 outbreaks reported in recent days in Egypt. The comments confirm earlier reports of H5N1 in backyard holdings and commercial poultry (see satellite map). However, the above comments indicate the infections are more prevalent on the commercial farms, where vaccinations would be expected to be more complete.

Recent H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of increased infections in Egypt, but the vaccination program was implemented to blunt the spread.

The explosion of poultry H5N1 cases provides some rationale for the high number of confirmed and suspect cases, but the cases reported to date are not farm workers, raising the possibility that the H5N1 in Egypt is more efficiently transmitted to humans. Although there have been no confirmed familial clusters this season, there are suspect clusters in Menoufia, Port Said, and Sharquia.

Updated data on the suspect cases and release of sequences fro the confirmed cases, would be useful.


.

[gjs47]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

[Commonground]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

Please see Post #31 for Dr. Nimans explanation.

[HenryN]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

Here is a quick rundown. Many agencies spend more time on controling information than controling H5N1. The tipping point refers to panic. One measure is ProMed commentaries, which usually dismiss H5N1. They have begun to show concern over Saudi Arabia and Egypt. For Egypt, they began to worry with the 3rd death (and were hoping the clustering was a statistical abberation).

The teacher died Saturday, so H5N1 confirmation would make 5 fatalities within a week. Moreover, a teacher with a backyard holding in Cairo matchjes a lot of people in Cairo, so the death of a 43 year old teacher alone would set off alarm bells.

Without the teacher, there is still a chance that the fifth case will recover, as will some of the suspect cases. A few recoveries will even out the scales, instead of almost all dying in short order.

Risk / reward ratio is heavily slanted toward a negative. Negatives are VERY easy to generate and getting a positive frequently requires a few tries. Those who would like a negative need to only try once (and use the chicken data to confirm a negative).

[Gnosis]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

Negatives are VERY easy to generate

They have always assuaged fear and allowed the "authorities" and Govcorp to poo-poo the true growth and spread of H5N1.

The results would be different with proper testing and collection protocol adherence.

Until then I guess I should feel good about the wind blown up my skirt.

[HenryN]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

Tighten procedures to besiege bird flu <!heade><TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; text-direction: ltr" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffec border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5></TD></TR><TR><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffec colSpan=5>

أكد السيد أمين أباظة وزير الزراعة تشديد الإجراءات الوقائية لاحتواء مرض إنفلونزا الطيور, وإحكام الرقابة علي أسواق بيع الدواجن, ومضاعفة حجم اللقاحات التي تم تجهيزها للمرحلة الثانية التي بدأت15 ديسمبر الماضي, وتستمر حتي منتصف مارس المقبل.

Mr. Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture tighten preventive measures to contain bird flu, and tighten controls on the sale of poultry markets, and doubling the volume of vaccine that have been processed for the second phase, which began last December 15, and will continue until mid-March.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://www.ahram.org.eg/Index.asp%3FCurFN%3Dfron15.htm%26DID%3D9450&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=8&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25D8%25A7%25D9%2586%25D9%2581%25D9%2584%25D9%2588%25D9%2586%25D8%25B2%25D8%25A7%2B%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D8%25B7%25D9%258A%25D9%2588%25D8%25B1%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rls%3DTSHA,TSHA:2006-07,TSHA:en%26sa%3DG%26as_qdr%3Dd

[gsgs]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

can we maintain a list here with counts for:

Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals

they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:

Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

can we maintain a list here with counts for:

Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals

they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:

Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299

Are you volunteering for the job, gsgs? I've compiled a list of confirmed & suspected cases which is in this thread (it needs to be updated at the moment) -- we could sure use someone to put together a spreadsheet! Unfortunately, I haven't had the time.

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

Schoolteacher -- or his birds -- tested negative. The headline reads that "influenza did not kill teacher Cairo" but the negative report comes from the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine, not the Ministry of Health. ??

Google-translated from Arabic:

The seizure and execution 3778 chickens in Giza, influenza did not kill teacher Cairo

2/1/2008

Security forces chased the car loaded Giza birds, and seized 3778 chickens alive in the 3 car seizures were executed by veterinary inside Cemetery healthy -- comes in the framework of the follow-up to the spread of avian influenza virus in Cairo confirmed the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine negative sample for teacher suspected in the death of his family Avian.

Major General Mohsen mandated operations assistant minister for security officers Giza Giza to control the outlets for the transfer of live birds, and prevent the unauthorized transfer to curb the spread of the disease, were seized 1000 chickens Balorac, the commander of the car he brought from Dakahlia and seized 1370 chickens loaded in trucks at six been seized 700 chickens to the seller was seized 8 chickens with the seller, and liberated the records of the facts of seizure and notify the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88591

Alternate translation of the paragraph about the teacher:

The security services in Giza chased the cars laden with the birds, and they seized 3778 an alive chicken in 3 cars and the execution of sequestered items took place with the knowledge of veterinary medicine inside health cemeteries, that comes within the framework of the follow-up of the spread of the bird flu virus and in Cairo the Veterinary Medicine Department confirmed the passivity [negativity] of sample related to a teacher that its family suspected his death by the bird flu.

I think the Veterinary Medicine Department was talking about results on tests from the teacher's birds and not the teach.

[gsgs]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

weather in Cairo last 12 weeks:

http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/weaegy1.jpg

Dec.7 - Dec.15 they had low humidity of about 50&#37;
Dec.19 - Dec.28 it rose to about 65%
temperature was between 0&#176;C and 25&#176;C during this period.
Highest activity and infection probability by breathing is presumably
during daytime at temperature of ~ 20&#176;C.
Guinea-pig daytime breathing-infectivity was about 3 times higher
in the 2nd half of December in Cairo than in the 1st half.



transmission of influenza A/Panama/2007/99(H3N2) between
Guinea pigs depending on temperature and relative humidity:


however, in Indonesia we have 23&#176;C-35&#176;C and 70%-80% humidity
most of the time of the year, so there should be hardly any
airborne influenza.

temperature in degree Celsius
   |           |           |
  |05          20          30
--|-----------------------------------
20|.           .xxxxxxx
35|.xxxxxxxx   .xxxxxxxx   .
50|.xxxxxxx    .xx
65|.xxxx       .xxxxxx
80|.xxxx       .
--|-----------------------------------
|
|_relative humidity in %

x: one infected guinea pig (out of 8)

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

1 new sus case in Sharkia: Husam Muhammad (4M)
1 new sus case in Qena: 4 month old child
3(?) new sus cases in Al Gharbiyah (there's 6 reported here but we already have 3, I think -- need to check with previous list)

Hat-tip, Helblindi & commonground!

Google-translated from Arabic:

Preventive measures against bird flu in the provinces
Execution 22.7 thousand birds in the East [Sharkia] and the lake [Beheira], Dakahliya safe ..
Jan 3, 2008

Between preventive action taken by the provinces to address the bird flu virus and movements of teams of veterinary medicine to control the new outposts in the provinces, renewed fears of the sick and warnings converted into an epidemic .. In general lost governorates witnessed yesterday fraught days of confrontations with the dreaded bird flu .. What happened?!

East [Sharkia] Abdel Ahawadwi:

Unfolded hotbed of new avian influenza infection in a poultry farms mothers City Salehia new Eastern [Sharkia] Province .. Dr Mustafa Attiya Undersecretary of Veterinary Medicine maintaining that the technical follow-up committee yesterday to execute all the contents farm and whose capacity hits 22 thousand and 600 chickens.

Children were detained Husam Muhammad 4 years from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad Eastern Province, on suspicion of being bird flu, were obtained on a sample of the child victim and sent to the central laboratory in Cairo.

Lake [Beheira] from Tamer Abdul:

First emerged hotbed of cases of avian influenza in the province of Beheira La Alhouci weakness Hamada, with the execution of a number of the 105 bird house officer Mohamed Khalil Abdalkoi and neighbouring houses.

Mansoura [Dakahlia] Office Ahram:

Dr Fathi tabled Undersecretary of the Ministry of Veterinary Medicine Being that Dakahlia free bird flu and the results of all samples taken from the farm were negative.

Aswan Aboualnil of conciliator:

Directorate of Veterinary Medicine began Aswan campaign to vaccinate domestic birds against avian influenza, "said Al Omar Mustafa, Secretary General of maintaining that the campaign will last 3 months, and targeted vaccination million birds.

Qena from Osama Al Hawwari:

Hospital dietary detained yesterday another child aged 4 months on suspicion of being bird flu after the emergence of symptoms and the number of deaths of birds in the house his family was being farmed by, has Directorate Veterinary Medicine cleared the house and birds living and buried landfill health preservation.

Western [Al Gharbiyah] Alaa Abdullah:

6 cases were detained suspected of being infected with the disease hospital dietary Mehalla Great Western Province, to the emergence of symptoms of high temperature constant, and bone pain. Testing was conducted for the suspect in the injury and taking Pap hours and sent to the central Ministry of Health laboratories Cairo to indicate the extent of the illness or not.

http://www.ahram.org.eg/Index.asp?CurFN=mhfz2.htm&DID=9450

[HenryN]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

January 3, 2008

<NYT_HEADLINE version="1.0" type=" ">Egypt: 4 Women Die of Bird Flu </NYT_HEADLINE>

<NYT_BYLINE version="1.0" type=" ">By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
</NYT_BYLINE><NYT_TEXT>Bird flu has killed four Egyptian women in the past week, according to Egyptian health officials and the World Health Organization. The women, ages 25 to 50, were from different provinces, and the cases were not related, officials said. At least one was a chicken seller, and the others were said to have kept poultry at home. The H5N1 strain of avian flu appears endemic in Egyptian poultry; previously the last human case was in June. A total of 43 Egyptians have been infected with H5N1 since it arrived in early 2006; 19 died.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/world/middleeast/03briefs-birdflu.html?_r=1&ref=world&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

<NYT_UPDATE_BOTTOM></NYT_UPDATE_BOTTOM>
</NYT_TEXT>

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

A mention here of 143 suspected cases in connection with the recent 5 confirmed cases and 4 deaths. Not sure what this figure means -- 143 suspected cases currently? Recently? No idea.

Google-translated from Arabic:

Is succeed Supreme Committee to Combat Anflonzataior in the face of the disease in Egypt?
Jan 3, 2008

Cairo - the Supreme Committee to Combat Bird Flu, the execution of all birds and remnants of the farms that prove her illness, as well as prevention education home with the closure of the farms are not bound to vaccinate poultry and protection Mnlmayor 6 months.

Attended the meeting of the Higher Committee for the flu, Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health, Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, the governor Giza, and Alestoualemnovih also told the Middle East News Agency.

And the Committee to tighten controls on the production of poultry farms either in education or home, taking all the aggravating and decisive action in all governorates to prevent the transport of poultry from one governorate to another, from one farm to another. The committee stressed that continue to ban poultry houses in the final in cities and governorates.

The Commission invited all citizens contacts poultry go directly to the hospitals and health units at once a sense of the body temperature to control the disease in its inception and a large proportion of healing.

He Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, in a press conference held after the meeting that one of the reasons for the emergence of the disease again some neglect and inaction of the relevant agencies and the owners of some of the farms, and a failure to follow procedures and precautions required for prevention of the disease.

He highlighted the granting of Governors authorities in implementing the decisions of the Supreme Committee for the fight against bird flu and to control the poultry sector in Egypt to ensure the integrity and safety of human health.

For his part, Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health, there is no dialogue in the virus during the last period confirming the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and serums used in the immunization, although there proportion acknowledged by the global vaccines lose validity result of storage.

The minister pointed out that the cases that have been cured, which is headed for the hospital early warning of dealing with vulnerable hearts of educators who transferred infected poultry in the dark for sale to citizens.

He and the Minister of Health that decided to form work teams from the Ministry of Agriculture and Health and veterinary medicine continuously monitoring the poultry in various locations to detect the case of injury, Powell addressed first.

From its side, the chariman Ayman Al Kaffas said the General Information Authority president and spokesman higher committee in the press conference that was held after the meeting of the committee is that the reports that the highest committee discussed in its meeting today pointed out that the injury ratio by the bird flu disease reached in 2007 about 25 an injury [25 confirmed cases in 2007] -- and the suspicion conditions reached about 143 case from them 5 injuries and four conditions of deaths [i.e. the recent group of 5 cases with 4 deaths] -- compared with 18 injuries in 2006 and most of the injuries were in the females.

He saw that the global position of avian influenza far beyond the situation in Egypt, where the number of casualties amounted to 348 cases and 216 deaths around the situation, and the highest mortality rates in Indonesia and Vietnam

On the other hand, the competent departments of veterinary medicine Dakahlia governorate day Wednesday the execution of the 1301 influenza miscellaneous after 4 cars seized in the governorate without a permit.

http://www.masrawy.com/News/Egypt/Local/2008/January/2/birdflu.aspx

[Theresa42]

Re: EGYPT - Jan 2, 2008+

No new sus cases listed here.

Google-translated from Arabic:

Bird flu fever sweeping the governorates
Jan 3, 2007

Egypt fever swept avian influenza again this week following the announcement that the cases of injury and death of new governorates .. [Port] Said hotbeds appeared in the new area south villages Radwan, Cape .. And hit a family of 4 members at severe temperature, had been detained [as suspected cases] Hospital Dietetic [Port] Said.

In Aswan the brigade Aswan Governor Samir Seif decision to prevent trafficking in live bird and not circulated in the market and ordered the immediate execution of shipments Chicks before entering the province.

In Qaliubiya hike remove 150 chickens nest of flats housing area and execute 12 thousand chickens in a farm village Alrahuben status Shebin Spans.

In Alexandria intensified Directorate Veterinary Medicine campaigns on poultry farms scattered government, and troops raided the Directorate of some slums, and removed some nests were symptoms of the disease had emerged in the province by suspected .. She died 4 new cases .. It is noted that Alexandria was Mcefh last year settled within the provinces where the disease.

In West [Al Gharbiyah] has been disclosed new wells [outbreaks] in Mahala, and authorities culled thousands of dead birds government, Chancellor Adli Hussein, governor of the West [Al Gharbiyah] need Egypt for 10 years to eradicate bird flu and confirmed that the 19 Qaliubiya new epicentre [outbreaks] of the disease.

In Qena baby were detained after being suspected of bird flu ..

In Dakahlia executed Investigation Supply 1300 Nestling and chickens seized on the border of maintaining loaded on transport vehicles without permits and was on its way to shops bird preservation.

http://www.alwafd.org/v3/News/NewsDetail.php?id=1878&type=main&PHPSESSID=ac2434b8c6e3b981faed45106ef071b0