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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Sorry, No idea!
Originally posted by niman
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Mataram -- MIOL: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ordered the governors, the regent and the mayor to have a preceptive attitude towards the case of bird flu.The president considered the case of bird flu did not only become the problem in the country but also by other countries."I asked for the Regional Government to preceptive towards the case of bird flu," said President Yudhoyono in Mataram, on Tuesday, when opening the Association's working meeting of the Government of all the Indonesian Province (APPSI) that will take place till this coming May 24.The Working Meeting opening ceremony three today was attended also by Governor Bank Indonesia Burhanudin Abdul, the Minister For Home Affairs Muhamad well known, the Minister For Communications Hatta Rajasa, Menkominfo Sofyan Djalil as well as NTB Lalu Serinata Governor.The speaking head of state without the text afterwards touched on the case of bird flu that happened in the Karo Regency, North Sumatra.Recently in the Karo Regency emerged the case of bird flu to one cluster that resulted in five people dying in time that very close.To the Governors who attended the Working Meeting, the President also stated his concern because originally was estimated the case of this bird flu emerged from the poultry.However evidently poultries were there stated by the negative.Afterwards emerged the suspicion to the pig animal.Originally the pig was stated by the negative, but finally was proven this animal positively became the cause of the case emergence of bird flu there.The president said, himself very worried if the case of bird flu emerged from humankind that spread the virus to other humankind, because of could cause millions of people to die.(Ant/OL-03)</PRE>
http://www.mediaindo.co.id/</PRE>Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
A poster named Blue Jay on another board said that these numbers were from July 2005 through the present.Originally posted by nimanAbsence of evidence is not evidence of absenceComment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
The report that is being widely used is prepared by the Indonesian government.
http://www.penyakitmenular.info/pm/default.asp
click on this link to get the chart
SITUASI FLU BURUNG DI INDONESIA
Still the numbers seem confusing as the 128 "confirmed cases" reported on May 5, 2006 by the Indonesian Minister for People seem to have been a mixture of past and present cases.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=13231
Suspected birdflu patient dies in Bandung
Bandung (ANTARA News) - One of two suspected birdflu patients here died on Tuesday after being treated at Hasan Sadikin Hospital for 18 hours.
"At, a brother of Ad, both treated at the hospital for suspected bird flu died at 2.50pm, not long after doctors put a ventilator on him," deputy chief of the hospital's team of doctors for the disease, Djatnika Setiabudhi said.
He said the two patients had experienced shock while being treated in the hospital.
Djatnika could not confirm if the two had been suffering from bird flu although they showed symptoms similar to those for birdflu such as coughing, breathing problems and high fever.
The hospital had sent their blood samples to the Health Research and Development Agency in Jakarta for a test for the disease.
The siblings were first brought to Ujungberung hospital on Monday but after is was known that they had contact with a dead chicken, they were transferred to Hasan Sadikin Hospital that night.
The condition of the two patients was already serious when they were brought to the Hasan Sadikin.
He said the condition of Ad was still very serious and a ventilator had already been put on him.(*)Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
It looks like we are going to have two more cases and deaths, brothers At and Ad, after there samples get tested and most likely confirmed.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories
Tests show no evidence of a significant mutation in the bird flu strain that killed at least six blood relatives in an Indonesian village, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.
The deaths in the village in the Karo district of North Sumatra sparked fears the virus is being transmitted from person to person.
"Sequencing ... found no evidence of genetic reassortment ... and no evidence of significant mutations," the agency said in a statement.
"The human viruses from this cluster are genetically similar to viruses isolated from poultry in North Sumatra during a previous outbreak."
The World Health Organization confirmed details of the cluster last Thursday.
A 37-year-old woman from the village of Kubu Sembelang fell ill on April 27 and died on May 4.
But it's unlikely the cause of death will ever be confirmed as no samples were taken during her illness or before her burial.
Since her death, several of the woman's blood relatives have tested positive for the virus.
On Tuesday, Indonesia's Ministry of Health confirmed that another member of the woman's extended family, her 32-year-old brother, died on May 22.
"The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die," the agency said.
He is also the father of a 10-year-old boy who died on May 13.
"The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection," the agency said in a statement.
Preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases stayed overnight in a small room with the initial case when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently.
Those confirmed cases include the woman's two sons and a second brother, who is the only surviving case among infected members of this family.
"All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness," the WHO said.
"Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing."
Some doctors have suggested the cluster could mean there is some sort of genetic feature in the family's make-up that rendered its members more vulnerable to the strain.
While the source of that outbreak hasn't been officially confirmed, investigators believe the victims were engaged in the practice of defeathering swans -- an illegal activity which surviving family members may have tried to hide from authorities.
The Indonesian family cluster is the largest seen until now, but a number of other clusters among family members have been observed, most recently in Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Since late 2003, the virus has sickened at least 217 people in 10 countries, killing 123 of them, according to the WHO's May 19 count.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
The writer: SugengBandung -- MIOL: A patient suspect bird flu died in RS Handsome Sadikin (RSHS) Bandung, on Tuesday (23/5).Casualties, Ai Tita, 10, the citizen liked the Well-being, Cileunyi, the Bandung Regency, it was suspected was casualties family cluster bird flu, because during simultaneously, his full sibling, Ade Firman, 18, also in the critical condition.The two casualties were beforehand treated in RS the Berung Tip for one day, before being reconciled to RSHS, on Monday night (22/5).However, after being treated less than 19 hours, Tita did not remain, and died 02.50 WIB.Like was said the team's member of the handling of bird flu RSHS Polite, had been based on the medical note, since coming the two casualties in the critical condition, with the breathless complaint difficult and has experienced shock.To confirm whether both of them were infected by bird flu, sample blood was at once sent to the Departemenresearch and development hallThe Jakarta health.The mother of casualties, Cacih, 50, said, before his two children suffered the hot complaint high, several tails of the chicken were belonging to his neighbour found died suddenly.Before being brought to the hospital, his two children have experienced the hot sign high for three days.The "clinical sign both of them were similar to bird flu, so as we at once treated him in special isolation space RSHS bird flu in Flamboyant space."If being proven the clinical test showed they were infected by bird flu, both of them to cluster third that was handled the hospital after the family from Sumedang and Indramayu, firm Polite.In the meantime, the condition for Ade Firman, also still was critical.The sign that was experienced by him was the same as his brother who has died that.(SG/OL-02).</PRE>
http://www.mediaindo.co.id</PRE>Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Tests show no evidence of a significant mutation in the bird flu strain that killed at least six blood relatives in an Indonesian village, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.The key word here boys and girls is 'significant'.
"Sequencing ... found no evidence of genetic reassortment ... and no evidence of significant mutations," the agency said in a statement.
In essence they have found a mutation. It just doesn't classify as significant.
What is significant? Well, I can speculate that significant means Phase 6 full blown pandemic.
I don't think they found that.
But I do believe they found a mutation that would provide for, oh say Phase 4.
"The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection," the agency said in a statement.There you have it.
Preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases stayed overnight in a small room with the initial case when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently.
"All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness," the WHO said.
Limited human-to-human transmission of H5N1.
This is coming from WHO and pretty much seals the deal.
While I cannot confirm it is Phase 4, it looks like WHO is leaning toward a public announcement of such an event.
I could be wrong, but the words speak for themselves.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
I believe it is cumulative:Originally posted by niman
...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock HolmesComment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Avian influenza ? situation in Indonesia ? update 14
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/print.html
23 May 2006
The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 32-year-old man. He developed symptoms on 15 May and died on 22 May.
The case is part of a family cluster in the Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra. The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. An additional person, who was the first member of the family to fall ill, died of respiratory disease on 4 May. No specimens were taken prior to her burial and the cause of her death cannot be determined. However, as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection, epidemiologists at the outbreak site include this woman as the initial case in the cluster.
The newly confirmed case is a brother of the initial case. Specimens were taken on 21 May and flown the same day to Jakarta. Tests run overnight confirmed his infection. His 10-year-old son died of H5N1 infection on 13 May. The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection.
Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman?s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.
All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.
Both the Ministry of Health and WHO are concerned about the situation in Kubu Sembelang and have intensified investigation and response activities. Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community. To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.
Analysis of viruses
Full genetic sequencing of two viruses isolated from cases in this cluster has been completed by WHO H5 reference laboratories in Hong Kong and the USA. Sequencing of all eight gene segments found no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations. The viruses showed no mutations associated with resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitors, including oseltamivir (Tamiflu).
The human viruses from this cluster are genetically similar to viruses isolated from poultry in North Sumatra during a previous outbreak.
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.This is a game of words.
Efficient is a word that is applied to Phase 6, not Phase 4.
Phase 4 is clusters. Phase 4 is limited human-to-human transmission.
Phase 4 is what we are witnessing in Indonesia.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients, WHO Says
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus.
A team of international experts has been unable to find animals that might have infected the people, six of whom have died, the World Health Organization said in a statement today. In one case, a 10-year-old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said.
Almost all of the 218 cases of H5N1 infections confirmed by the WHO since late 2003 can be traced to direct contact with sick or dead birds. Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.
``Considering the evidence and the size of the cluster, it's a possibility,'' Cheng said in a telephone interview. ``it depends on what we're dealing with in Indonesia. It's an evolving situation.''
The 32-year-old father in the cluster of cases on the island of Sumatra was ``closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection,'' The WHO said in its statement. Three others, including the sole survivor in the group, spent a night in a ``small'' room with the boy's aunt, who later died and was buried before health officials could conduct tests for the H5N1 virus.
``All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness,'' the WHO said.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
In one case, a 10-year-old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said.So we have H2H2H.
Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.This is at least Phase 4. Hopefully it won't continue going 2H.
``Considering the evidence and the size of the cluster, it's a possibility,'' Cheng said in a telephone interview. ``it depends on what we're dealing with in Indonesia. It's an evolving situation.''It is obvious that we are dealing with at least H2H2H Phase 4 virus.
If this continues to spread we may have a Phase 5 or Phase 6.
I hope everyone has completed their preps.Comment
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Re: Indonesia BF - 5/22-5/23
Has anyone heard of Recombination?Comment
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