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Interview with Dr. C.A. Nidom
17 Jan 07
Confidence that government can afford to overcome the bird flu attacks has not been proven. Not one full week ago Welfare Coordinating Minister, Aburizal Bakrie, spoke about an annual report that at this time only 14 live provinces from 30 provinces in Indonesia that are infected with bird flu and displays bird flu spread back in Jakarta, Jawa Barat, and Tangerang.
This is based on data from the Agriculture Department, visibly just three provinces that are free from the virus, namely Maluku, Maluku Utara, and Gorontalo. Indonesia even noted that it broke records over Vietnam, where the aggregate number of sacrifices who died by avian flu virus between 2005-2007 was 59 people, when in Vietnam it was only 42 people, and in the years 2006-2007 there have not been any sacrifices who died in Vietnam.
Even more dreadful, an expert doctor of large domestic animals made the same claim that Jakarta society has the H5N1 virus. Straightaway what actions actually should done to decide to chain (stop?) the spreading of this bird flu virus?
Following this, Eramuslim discussed this case with bird flu observer and also a member Dr. of Molecular Biology at the University of Airlangga Surabaya, Dr. C.A Nidom, MS.
There is a chance that 70 percent of the people of Jakarta have the bird flu virus, so allegations have been made that the mass media is spreading this around town. Is this matter true? ('Have the bird flu virus, means have anti-bodies, IMHO ed.)
These allegations were issued after research and examinations were conducted on Jakarta society. I am confident that this is the same dangerous virus, consequently I mentioned no less than 70 percent. Data was obtained from facts I found all these years in the areas of Tangerang and Jakarta.
The first facts that came this way, happened to be a big bird flu case, occurring in the year 2003 to Tangerang chickens. I also discovered the first virus that infected pigs also in Tangerang, later it infected people. That direct cluster case in Iwan Iswara was also in Tangerang. Later for several months the infection continued.
Later in March, 2006, I conducted tests against a virus that came from Tangerang, that would indicate the presence of a pocket of virus contagion that is spread between humans.
Then from where do you make the conclusion of 70 percent?
The important figures are not here. I have said that I am sure that a profound part of the Jakarta population Jakarta as well as Tangerang has this virus, because my guess is that this virus has spread between people whose numbers reach 50 percent, so my calculations may be less than 70 percent. But these are the calculation figures.
These days officials from the Health Department do not want to conduct surveillance for those in Jakarta to prove that the incidents in Jakarta and the Tangerang are not only because of contagion from birds.
At this time the government still considers the flu contagion to be from bird from bird, while you have looked for the contagion being through cats. How effective are bird relocations in determining the spread of bird flu virus?
The problem of relocations if done a few months or years ago may have been effective. If the government still believes that bird flu is spread only from birds, they will conduct the relocation too late.
So that is not good. It is good, but not effective, because this virus has been in other domestic animals. This immediate move in no way solves the problem, but will even cause new problems.
New problems that will be brought up?
This bird relocation requires an endowment, it requires an idea from society and all that. Why are only non-commercial village chicken relocated when apparently this problem comes from commercial chickens? This causes friction that happens in acommunity. Least of all if examples of these relocation cases still happen, this indicates an adverse education in the community.
What bird flu vaccines have been administered by the government in 14 provinces to effectively solve the problem of bird flu? Has administration to birds such as that done by governments in 14 provinces effectively solved the problem of bird flu?
I see cases in people due to the bird flu virus, because it is significant that this virus not only comes directly from birds, but comes from other animals that are infected by birds. Just concerning humans, the problem is derived from bird sources, so from the beginning that must be resolved.
We from from the Domestic Animal Physician University of Airlangga have conducted investigations and research in December, 2006. And we have reported our findings to the Agriculture Department.
We recommend as the best method that we prefer proper commodious virus vaccines, because H5N2 and H5N9 have not left and still cause virus problems in chickens. Other favorable recommendations in deterring bird flu virus are with chicken virus infection.
According to you, at this time the research is based on what kinds of domestic animals that are suspect as being able to spread the bird flu virus, apart from cats and pigs?
Almost all domestic animals are spreading this virus. So in consideration, this virus was first in birds, lately it has successfully spread to pigs and cats, lately again it has successfully spread from domestic animals to half the humans.
Slowly this will succeed in spreading from human to human. This slowness is able to have consequences that are worse than previous ones.
How does one dispel worry about the community and neighborhood consumption of domestic chickens?
Virtually in a community humans and domestic animals cannot live in the same space. In principle, we are too late. It was passed at the end of 2005 and early 2006, so that immediately governments made allegations to communities to pen their chickens and relocate bird communities from humans. Foremost commercial chickens should have poultry industrial areas, and not be around society.
This was passed at the end of 2005. With such methods, cities such as Jakarta and Tangerang, if yearning to eat eggs, should not be able to keep chickens, or if they want chicken meat, they should have previously maintained chickens. And if a health program is created, this virus should not continue later. It is seen from controlling this virus that there is always a later virus. We should be in front of that.
Wherever the virus goes after this, it should be restrained. If a new one does relocate, this virus is far ahead. We have also made a fine simulation as though this virus has spread from human to human. We do a deterrent program in there, for example with localizations in districts where there are epidemics in people. In such a localized area where people cannot be moved from there, immediately supply them with food from outside such as that done in Vietnam. It should done ahead of time. If we are always at the back of the virus movement, surely we will miss.
Jakarta is from the three districts that have the bird flu endemics, so the ferocious virus is in Jakarta?
It has been determined that the provinces are Jakarta, Tangerang and Jawa Barat, but the provinces are actually just researched from human mobility. I did theorize that people who are in Jakarta will always have a chance of contracting this virus. Afterwards they will go to another district, arrive and meet with people from that area who are at a weak point.
Jakarta, Tangerang and Jawa Barat have the highest data in mobility, because there it is high enough, because we say that Jakarta and Tangerang are the epicenter of Indonesia's bird flu virus incidents. So the joke is "do not go to Jakarta."
From mapping it has also been seen that the greatest number of Family Cluster total incident cases are one third in the district, where the greatest majority of cats are in Jawa Barat. So the government should make another simulation. This could be done without government admitting that human to human contagion has happened, but a program will be more anticipatory.
If government announces that human to human contagion has happened, the apprehension it creates will be profound. It may be that Indonesia people will transfer out, or that foreign tourists do not come to Indonesia or leave.
But emphasizing this program, like the case of four people in Province X Subdistrict in isolation, where society cannot enter the district for a week, food is supplied from the outside, but they continue to be monitored, there is quick team movement for these individuals, because this mobile unit follows that travelling virus.
So what should government be doing these days?
Honesty, because all these years the government is seen as not being open in matters such as this. Saying that, it certainly is just not productive, do not conceal the virus data, because if it is not seen with one's eyes or by word of mouth that we are not lying, the virus is not able to lie.
One fresh day Welfare Minister Aburizal Bakri announced that there was a decrease from 30 to 14 provinces that were infected with bird flu, the next day an explosion happened, because what had been said was scarcely appropriate with the huge expansion.
Credits Influentia2 and thanks to History Lover for great editing and translating.
17 Jan 07
Confidence that government can afford to overcome the bird flu attacks has not been proven. Not one full week ago Welfare Coordinating Minister, Aburizal Bakrie, spoke about an annual report that at this time only 14 live provinces from 30 provinces in Indonesia that are infected with bird flu and displays bird flu spread back in Jakarta, Jawa Barat, and Tangerang.
This is based on data from the Agriculture Department, visibly just three provinces that are free from the virus, namely Maluku, Maluku Utara, and Gorontalo. Indonesia even noted that it broke records over Vietnam, where the aggregate number of sacrifices who died by avian flu virus between 2005-2007 was 59 people, when in Vietnam it was only 42 people, and in the years 2006-2007 there have not been any sacrifices who died in Vietnam.
Even more dreadful, an expert doctor of large domestic animals made the same claim that Jakarta society has the H5N1 virus. Straightaway what actions actually should done to decide to chain (stop?) the spreading of this bird flu virus?
Following this, Eramuslim discussed this case with bird flu observer and also a member Dr. of Molecular Biology at the University of Airlangga Surabaya, Dr. C.A Nidom, MS.
There is a chance that 70 percent of the people of Jakarta have the bird flu virus, so allegations have been made that the mass media is spreading this around town. Is this matter true? ('Have the bird flu virus, means have anti-bodies, IMHO ed.)
These allegations were issued after research and examinations were conducted on Jakarta society. I am confident that this is the same dangerous virus, consequently I mentioned no less than 70 percent. Data was obtained from facts I found all these years in the areas of Tangerang and Jakarta.
The first facts that came this way, happened to be a big bird flu case, occurring in the year 2003 to Tangerang chickens. I also discovered the first virus that infected pigs also in Tangerang, later it infected people. That direct cluster case in Iwan Iswara was also in Tangerang. Later for several months the infection continued.
Later in March, 2006, I conducted tests against a virus that came from Tangerang, that would indicate the presence of a pocket of virus contagion that is spread between humans.
Then from where do you make the conclusion of 70 percent?
The important figures are not here. I have said that I am sure that a profound part of the Jakarta population Jakarta as well as Tangerang has this virus, because my guess is that this virus has spread between people whose numbers reach 50 percent, so my calculations may be less than 70 percent. But these are the calculation figures.
These days officials from the Health Department do not want to conduct surveillance for those in Jakarta to prove that the incidents in Jakarta and the Tangerang are not only because of contagion from birds.
At this time the government still considers the flu contagion to be from bird from bird, while you have looked for the contagion being through cats. How effective are bird relocations in determining the spread of bird flu virus?
The problem of relocations if done a few months or years ago may have been effective. If the government still believes that bird flu is spread only from birds, they will conduct the relocation too late.
So that is not good. It is good, but not effective, because this virus has been in other domestic animals. This immediate move in no way solves the problem, but will even cause new problems.
New problems that will be brought up?
This bird relocation requires an endowment, it requires an idea from society and all that. Why are only non-commercial village chicken relocated when apparently this problem comes from commercial chickens? This causes friction that happens in acommunity. Least of all if examples of these relocation cases still happen, this indicates an adverse education in the community.
What bird flu vaccines have been administered by the government in 14 provinces to effectively solve the problem of bird flu? Has administration to birds such as that done by governments in 14 provinces effectively solved the problem of bird flu?
I see cases in people due to the bird flu virus, because it is significant that this virus not only comes directly from birds, but comes from other animals that are infected by birds. Just concerning humans, the problem is derived from bird sources, so from the beginning that must be resolved.
We from from the Domestic Animal Physician University of Airlangga have conducted investigations and research in December, 2006. And we have reported our findings to the Agriculture Department.
We recommend as the best method that we prefer proper commodious virus vaccines, because H5N2 and H5N9 have not left and still cause virus problems in chickens. Other favorable recommendations in deterring bird flu virus are with chicken virus infection.
According to you, at this time the research is based on what kinds of domestic animals that are suspect as being able to spread the bird flu virus, apart from cats and pigs?
Almost all domestic animals are spreading this virus. So in consideration, this virus was first in birds, lately it has successfully spread to pigs and cats, lately again it has successfully spread from domestic animals to half the humans.
Slowly this will succeed in spreading from human to human. This slowness is able to have consequences that are worse than previous ones.
How does one dispel worry about the community and neighborhood consumption of domestic chickens?
Virtually in a community humans and domestic animals cannot live in the same space. In principle, we are too late. It was passed at the end of 2005 and early 2006, so that immediately governments made allegations to communities to pen their chickens and relocate bird communities from humans. Foremost commercial chickens should have poultry industrial areas, and not be around society.
This was passed at the end of 2005. With such methods, cities such as Jakarta and Tangerang, if yearning to eat eggs, should not be able to keep chickens, or if they want chicken meat, they should have previously maintained chickens. And if a health program is created, this virus should not continue later. It is seen from controlling this virus that there is always a later virus. We should be in front of that.
Wherever the virus goes after this, it should be restrained. If a new one does relocate, this virus is far ahead. We have also made a fine simulation as though this virus has spread from human to human. We do a deterrent program in there, for example with localizations in districts where there are epidemics in people. In such a localized area where people cannot be moved from there, immediately supply them with food from outside such as that done in Vietnam. It should done ahead of time. If we are always at the back of the virus movement, surely we will miss.
Jakarta is from the three districts that have the bird flu endemics, so the ferocious virus is in Jakarta?
It has been determined that the provinces are Jakarta, Tangerang and Jawa Barat, but the provinces are actually just researched from human mobility. I did theorize that people who are in Jakarta will always have a chance of contracting this virus. Afterwards they will go to another district, arrive and meet with people from that area who are at a weak point.
Jakarta, Tangerang and Jawa Barat have the highest data in mobility, because there it is high enough, because we say that Jakarta and Tangerang are the epicenter of Indonesia's bird flu virus incidents. So the joke is "do not go to Jakarta."
From mapping it has also been seen that the greatest number of Family Cluster total incident cases are one third in the district, where the greatest majority of cats are in Jawa Barat. So the government should make another simulation. This could be done without government admitting that human to human contagion has happened, but a program will be more anticipatory.
If government announces that human to human contagion has happened, the apprehension it creates will be profound. It may be that Indonesia people will transfer out, or that foreign tourists do not come to Indonesia or leave.
But emphasizing this program, like the case of four people in Province X Subdistrict in isolation, where society cannot enter the district for a week, food is supplied from the outside, but they continue to be monitored, there is quick team movement for these individuals, because this mobile unit follows that travelling virus.
So what should government be doing these days?
Honesty, because all these years the government is seen as not being open in matters such as this. Saying that, it certainly is just not productive, do not conceal the virus data, because if it is not seen with one's eyes or by word of mouth that we are not lying, the virus is not able to lie.
One fresh day Welfare Minister Aburizal Bakri announced that there was a decrease from 30 to 14 provinces that were infected with bird flu, the next day an explosion happened, because what had been said was scarcely appropriate with the huge expansion.
Credits Influentia2 and thanks to History Lover for great editing and translating.
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