AFD - 2009 H1N1 - WHO Updates, Announcements, Data

[sharon sanders]

WHO Influenza Update # 35



# 3234


Although the gaps in testing around the world render these numbers less reliable with each passing day, these official releases are still a rough yardstick of the progression of the virus.

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 35

21 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 21 May 2009, 41 countries have officially reported 11 034 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 85 deaths.

[sharon sanders]

AFD - H1N1 WHO Updates

WHO Influenza Update #36



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The WHO has released its daily numbers, we see a very modest jump of 134 confirmed cases.

As I reported yesterday (see The Surveillance Gap and Arizona & Utah Report Swine Flu Fatalities) and again on Wednesday (see H1N1 In Europe: Hiding In Plain Sight?) there are genuine problems in our global surveillance, not to mention a reluctance by some countries to look very hard for the virus.

In any event, for whatever it is worth, here are today?s numbers.

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 36

22 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 22 May 2009, 42 countries have officially reported 11 168 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 86 deaths.

[sharon sanders]

Re: AFD - 2009 H1N1 - WHO Updates, Announcements, Data

WHO Influenza Update #38



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The WHO is reporting another modest increase in confirmed cases over yesterday, with 493 new infections. Given that this is an update of Sunday?s numbers, and many labs were closed over the weekend, a small increase was to be expected.

Additionally, many countries remain incapable of testing for the virus, while some other countries have the ability, but have either a limited capacity or limited desire to do testing.

The result being that the WHO numbers, like the CDC?s (which they admit represent perhaps 1 in 20 real cases) are badly undercounted.

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 38

25 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 25 May 2009, 46 countries have officially reported 12 515 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 91 deaths.

For more information on the chronic understating of H1N1 cases around the world, see H1N1 In Europe: Hiding In Plain Sight? and A Yank From Oxford.

[sharon sanders]

Re: AFD - 2009 H1N1 - WHO Updates, Announcements, Data

FT does not agree with WHO. Please see FT News Release:

Possible A/H1N1v Mutations

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112199

WHO: No Sign Of H1N1 Mutation (Yet)


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Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, today stated that they have seen no signs of mutation in the H1N1 swine flu virus currently spreading around the world.

In recent days, there have been several high profile news stories indicating that such a mutation may have have taken place, including this one which quotes the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) of Germany as being worried about changes in the virus.

There have also been concerns raised over an isolate, collected in Shanghai China (A/Shanghai/70T/2009) which showed a mutational (as opposed to a reassortment) change (E627K) that possibly represents an increased adaptation to humans.

This isolate has been the subject of discussion on a number of flu forums over the past week.

We don?t currently have any details on the clinical course of the person infected with this mutated strain, nor do we know if it has been transmitted to others.

This mutation is believed integral to allowing the virus to replicate at lower temperatures (such as is found in the nose and upper pharynx) and could conceivably increase the virulence of the virus.

It is present in most seasonal flu viruses, but has not been seen in any of the other A/H1N1(2009) isolates.

None of this is to say that scientists aren?t worried about mutations arising from this virus.

They are.

Seasonal H1N1 has, over the past year, picked up almost complete resistance to oseltamivir (Tamiflu). Right now, Tamiflu is one of only two effective antivirals available to treat this virus.

Should swine flu pick up similar resistance, it would greatly impact our ability to treat serious cases. And of course, there are many mutations that could affect virulence as well.

This from Reuters.

Thursday June 25, 2009

WHO says H1N1 virus is stable, not yet mutating

By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The World Health Organization said on Thursday that the H1N1 virus was stable and there was no sign yet of it mixing with other influenza viruses.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan speaks to media during a news conference on the 62nd World Health Assembly at the United Nations European headquarters in Geneva in this May 19, 2009 file photo. (REUTERS/Denis Balibouse)

Some health officials have raised concerns that if H1N1, known by many as swine flu, combined with the much deadlier H5N1 bird flu virus then the pandemic could claim many more lives.

"The virus is still very stable," WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan told reporters at a news briefing in Moscow when asked if there were any signs of the virus mixing with other strains such as avian flu.

"But as we all know the influenza virus is highly unpredictable and has great potential for mutation," Chan said after meeting Russian Health Minister Tatyana Golikova.

Chan's remarks are some of the first comments by the WHO leadership since the United Nations agency declared an influenza pandemic on June 11.

Chan said the viruses needed to be closely monitored to make sure there was no mutation.

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