Shock UK swine flu estimates

[Shiloh]

Source: http://news.stv.tv/scotland/106456-s...flu-estimates/


Shock UK swine flu estimates

Health Secretary warns Commons that more than 100,000 new cases could be reported each day by the end of August.

02 July 2009 13:41 PM
The number of swine flu cases could reach more than 100,000 per day in the UK by the end of next month, Health Secretary Andy Burnham has warned.

The UK has moved past the stage of containing the flu outbreak and into the "treatment phase", Mr Burnham said. "We have reached the next stage in management of the disease."

"The national focus will be on treating the increasing numbers affected by swine flu," he added. "We will move to this treatment phase across the UK with immediate effect."

There are now 7,447 laboratory-confirmed cases in the UK, he told the Commons on Thursday. About one-seventh of the total is in Scotland.

Mr Burnham said that last week saw several hundred new swine flu cases.

He added: "We have now signed contracts to secure enough vaccine for the whole population."

The first will become available next month, with 60 million doses available by the end of the year.

Predicting the huge daily rise in new cases, Mr Burnham said: "Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August."

Efforts to trace people who have been in contact with swine flu cases will stop and schools will not need to close when hit by the virus, unless particular circumstances make it necessary.

Scottish Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon, at a news conference in Edinburgh, said: "In recent weeks we have, as expected, seen a significant increase in the number of cases of pandemic flu throughout the UK.

"Given the number of cases, and the evidence of community transmission, we believe now is the right time to move to the treatment phase of dealing with the pandemic.

"It simply means that we are seeing a rise in the number of cases and are adapting our approach to dealing with these.

"I would again reiterate that the risk to the general public remains low. Fortunately, the vast majority of people who get this virus experience only mild symptoms."

On Wednesday, the Scottish Government said the number of cases have surged to 1,217 overall, including two deaths.

Six people with the virus remain in hospital.


Last updated: 02 July 2009, 13:45

[Shiloh]

Re: Shock UK swine flu estimates

Britain revamps swine flu strategy to handle surge

10 minutes ago

LONDON (AP) ? Britain's health minister says the country faces a projected 100,000 new swine flu cases a day by August and must revamp its flu strategy.

Britain had been trying to contain the disease by liberally giving out the drug Tamiflu to all suspected swine flu cases and their contacts.

Health minister Andy Burnham said Thursday that Britain will now only give the antiviral to people with the virus.

He said people with swine flu symptoms should check health services websites or call flu hotlines to get help before seeing their doctors. He said patients should stay at home and have friends pick up drugs for them from designated community centers.

Britain is the hardest-hit nation in Europe in the swine flu pandemic.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
Source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...pmuBQD996B88O2

LONDON (AP) ? Britain's health minister Andy Burnham says the country could have 100,000 new cases of swine flu every day by August.

The World Health Organization has said that 2 billion people could be infected with swine flu worldwide. Most cases are mild and require no medical treatment to get better. More than 77,000 cases, including 332 deaths, have been reported worldwide.

Burnham announced in the House of Commons Thursday that Britain was going to stop liberally giving out Tamiflu to all cases and their contacts, and that the antiviral would only be used to treat patients. Many experts have criticized Britain's approach to the outbreak for wasting resources and drugs.

Copyright ? 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[german-docter]

Re: Shock UK swine flu estimates

Source: http://news.stv.tv/scotland/106456-s...flu-estimates/
(...)
The UK has moved past the stage of containing the flu outbreak and into the "treatment phase", Mr Burnham said. "We have reached the next stage in management of the disease."
(...)
Efforts to trace people who have been in contact with swine flu cases will stop and schools will not need to close when hit by the virus, unless particular circumstances make it necessary.(...)
"Given the number of cases, and the evidence of community transmission, we believe now is the right time to move to the treatment phase of dealing with the pandemic.
Last updated: 02 July 2009, 13:45

(...)
LONDON (AP) ? Britain's health minister says the country faces a projected 100,000 new swine flu cases a day by August and must revamp its flu strategy.

Britain had been trying to contain the disease by liberally giving out the drug Tamiflu to all suspected swine flu cases and their contacts.
Health minister Andy Burnham said Thursday that Britain will now only give the antiviral to people with the virus. (...)

Source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...pmuBQD996B88O2
(...)
Burnham announced in the House of Commons Thursday that Britain was going to stop liberally giving out Tamiflu to all cases and their contacts, and that the antiviral would only be used to treat patients. Many experts have criticized Britain's approach to the outbreak for wasting resources and drugs.

They are exactly following their plan:

UK INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
CONTINGENCY PLAN

http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/221497/national_plan_ai_gbr_en.pdf

Antiviral use within UK (treatment and containment).
14. What we know:
? A pandemic flu outbreak cannot be contained in the UK because of
the large number of seed cases (i.e people bringing the disease in from abroad) that would be expected. The disease would be expected to spread to all major UK centres of population within 1 to 2 weeks.
? Mass provision of antivirals to the population would simply postpone the outbreak by the period for which prophylaxis is provided.[COLOR="Red" However, such mass prophylaxis would deplete antiviral stocks very quickly [/COLOR](at a rate of one treatment course per 10 person days).

(..)

Antivirals are most efficiently used for treatment. If the available stock is less than the clinical attack rate it will be necessary to limit treatment to priority groups. For a given stockpile, the stock available for use in treatment will depend on how much is used for prophylaxis (be it targeted prophylaxis for containment, or prophylaxis of essential workers or their contacts).
? Although the main purpose of antiviral treatment is to reduce the severity of the disease, treating all clinical cases with
antivirals might also decrease the overall attack rate.

(?)

15. Planning implications:
? Develop a flexible system that would enable antiviral treatment to be targeted dynamically at different priority groups as required, restricting use to priority groups if attack rates are high but ensuring high coverage if attack rates are low.

(...)

Other Pre-Vaccination Measures
16. What we know:
? Even very substantial restrictions on travel within the UK (~60%) would delay the peak of an epidemic only by of the order of a week, make little difference to the total numbers of cases and reduce the peak incidence by at most 5-10%.
? Closing schools and other educational facilities would have a limited effect on the epidemic. There would be a major reduction in the numbers of students affected, and this would be important if children or young adults turned out to be ?at risk? groups. On the other hand, there would be little reduction in the number of cases in the rest of the population.
The priority groups for immunisation will be based on a number of factors, including the need to maintain the elements of community infrastructure in order to carry out the pandemic plan; (?)

Two months ago?

http://www.healthcarerepublic.com//news/index.cfm?fuseaction=HCR.News.GP.LatestNews.Article&nNewsID=901865&sHashCode=#AddComment

healthcarerepublic
UK to boost Tamiflu stockpile to tackle swine flu
29-Apr-09
The UK is to order an additional 16 million doses of Tamiflu to bring the stockpile up to 50 million, as the swine flu virus spreads to three patients in England. A 12-year-old girl from Torbay in Devon is among the new cases. She travelled on the same flight from Mexico as the Scottish couple confirmed with the virus on Monday.
A 41-year old man in Birmingham and a 22-year old from London have also tested positive for H1N1.
In addition to ordering the extra anti-virals, health secretary Alan Johnson also announced that television and press adverts will run from tomorrow to help inform the public how to lower their risk of developing swine flu. (?)