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Re: 225G Preliminary Worldwide Tracking & Evaluation
Seize up a: Two cases of change in France L' National Sanitary Surveillance Institute, INVS, announced Friday in an official statement the " reference of changes in the genome of the flu virus has (H1N1) " among two patients deceased. Identical to that announced in Norway, " this change could increase the capacities of the virus to reach the low respiratory tracts, and in particular, to reach the fabric pulmonaire" , explains l' INVS. " It s' of the first resistant stock in France among the 1200 stocks analyzed to date " acts;. Investigations thus will be launched in order to determine " l' impact of these changes on the pathogenic character and the broadcasting capacity of these virus". However, l' effectiveness of the vaccines " n' is not given in cause". Since the beginning of l' epidemic, 76 people died in Metropolitan France. http://www.lejdd.fr/Societe/Sante/De...France-153716/
The red-winged tinamou (Argentina) is a mostly ground dwelling bird, with a threatened (ie low) population. How likely is it that this bird is a donor? within the time span given 2008-2009.
email response from NS1 -
Sally asked about the potential for a ground bird as a donor for recombination.
Her logic is very clear and causes me to ponder the language we use, sometimes interchangeably, when discussing recombination. When a new concept like recombination is planted, the terms around the new growth sometimes require refinement from the previous definitions. Perhaps when we discuss donation of genetic material, we should use a more general term for the potential ultimate origin of a genetic change? Polymorphism Preserver, Resilient Reservoir, Source Supplier, Basic Bank, et al, come to mind.
Remember that surveillance, in general, is really very limited and that many animals carry and spread disease that mankind never tracks. We are definitely “searching for our lost keys under the street lamp,” in all cases of genetic exploration of trends. We rely on the data that is available and hope for more everyday.
The red-winged Tinamou, like the Chinese Chukkar (H6N1), Gallus domesticus, Meleagris gallopavo, is certainly an animal that is frequently found on the ground. That particular trait is meritorious to our study for several reasons.
Easy to capture and test.
Established and ongoing contact with man AND with birds.
Frequently domesticated, increasing the contact with man and often with swine (Asia).
Sally’s question on the “threatened” population rating of the Tinamou is particularly insightful. Generally, in our present era, an animal arrives at a reduced population for two reasons, each related to human contact.
Habitat Range Encroachment (City Building)
Inclusion or Increase as a Human Food for various reasons, including poverty or commerce.
Think of a donor as an individual Reservoir, an intermediate link, in a networked chain of transmission. We, nor other genetics evaluators, are of the opinion that the bird from Argentina traveled to each place where the polymorphisms were subsequently found though the euphemism of FlightPath is commonly used as a learning aid. We do state that the set of data currently available is strongly suggestive that the Influenza strain from the Tinamou traveled via numerous FlightPaths (contact points: humans, flight birds, domestic animals) in a network that may have had the tinamou as an ultimate origin reservoir or, at a minimum, a bank from the distant past (2008) in Influenza replication generations.
One sunny day, a perfectly happy red-winged tinamou (not our tinamou of interest, just a tinamou named Tan) was standing outside her nest (pen) and encountered the small boy who had raised her from a chick. Tan happily hopped to his side and when he tossed her the daily grains, a sneeze erupted over the bird feed. The tiny tinamou ate, was infected with seasonal influenza and incubated a human viral infection that selected for avian characteristics inside her body. Three days later and prior to Tan’s body fully clearing the infection, a gaggle of geese flew over her home and attempted a landing in the small pond next to the hut.
Too many geese and not enough pond forced several small birds to circle and take a perch at her water bucket. Human to ground bird to flight bird transmission completed.
The virus now gets several generations of replication and avian selection inside the small goose and 10 of the swarm before 3 die and the others cross mountains before their next landing point. Seeing water again 900 miles north of Tan, the infected geese drop onto a large lake 40 miles from civilisation over the heads of a research group from a local university kayaking near the marshy areas to gather environmental samples. If all contact tracing were this simple, we’d have little need for epidemiologists, but, with this straightforward and entirely invented example, you get an idea of a normal transmission chain.
Yes, the ground bird, a tinamou, may provide a vector for Influenza spread, though, on the surface, the odds seem distant. A well designed system always has failsafe mechanisms and alternate pathways. Genetic acquisition, recycling of sub-unit changes, inside a species like Influenza is accomplished via an array of failsafes and fallbacks. Nature displays very well ordered systems . . . when the data is evaluated. Unfortunately, mankind has re-engineered those natural pathways and generally without vision for the long-term effects.
And Tan has no idea in her perfect mind of the very important role she has played.
A/Norway/3364-2, sampled 2009-09-08 on a tracheal swab from an adult female, is a very special individual in the team of 9 Norwegian sequences that each demonstrate HAsyn413K, an Avian H1N1 SNP found in the most recent 225G sequences from the widely reported fatal cases in the ongoing flashfire that has now over 1.7 million cases with 404 deaths and more than 100,000 hospitalisations. The synonymous 413K is traveling worldwide, potentially laying landing strips for 225G.
What would you think if I told you that syn413K was traveling with another silent companion . . . who lives on a different gene segment? Norway3364 is the only recent sequence from that country with a published Neuraminidase segment. And this time, they gave us a very useful one. Cross segment linking is occurring regularly in ΣPF11 and this sequence provides an opportunity to examine one pair.
Norway3364 carries HAsyn413K and NAsyn407V. This particular version of 407V is widespread in H5N1 and the cross-segmentpair is also noted under the virulent serotype.
Cross-Linked HA and NA from Norway to the Ukraine
HA:syn413K encoded from A1281G, AAa->AAg*
NA:syn407V encoded from T1221C, GTt->GTc*
* SNP Matches the 4 fatal flashfire cases
A limited inspection demonstrates a wide range for this paired set of travelers. The following list is not comprehensive, but is a representative geographic sample of other sequences that carry the pair. Any attempt at a comprehensive study will only result in disappointment as you'll find that many sequences with syn413K have no NA to evaluate and many sequences with syn407V have no related HA. Patterns do not precisely define themselves without data, but the range is impressive even with the limited dataset.
Norway, the Ukraine, Sweden, Spain, Russia, the United States and Singapore are identified in this sequence range.
LvivN2
LvivN6
TernopilN10
TernopilN11
Norway3364
CatS1096
CatS1162
CatS1181
CatS1268
CatS1402
CatS1501
CatS1687
CatS1748
CatS1751
CatS1761
SingaporeON1156
Stockholm31
Omsk02
NY3702
NY3715
NY3828
RhodeIsland08
Very few of these sequences share 100% homology, meaning that most of the backgrounds are diverse on which these paired, cross-segment changes, HAsyn413K and NAsyn407V, are overlaid. Those overlays onto differing genetic templates each require a precise sub-segment data acquisition at the Hemagglutinin paired with a secondprecise sub-segment acquisition at the Neuraminidase.
We have provided 22 examples so that random mutation and / or spontaneous mutation proponents may think before answering the probabilities of these outcomes under those outdated frameworks.
This post has been edited by NS1. Please review for changes.
France announces the presence of 225G associated with fatalities and indicates that one of the 225G strains is also TamiFlu Resistant.
Less than one week after the first official announcement from Norway, western Europe has a growing coverage of confirmed and probable 225G cases. As we mentioned on the 23<sup>rd</sup> of November, many countries will now open their databases concerning this RBD change. Those databases will confirm not that 225G is spreading, but that 225G was already widely dispersed and is spreading faster than we had previously been led to believe.
A glaring signal is apparent concerning the public's right to information that may protect their health. Release of important policy-making and family protection information has been blocked as the taxpayer-funded research centers and public health officials continue to withhold even the sparse data from the limited surveillance that has been conducted.
The leading world health agency reports a rise in TamiFlu Resistant sequences to 75 cases, geographically dispersed, while continuing to read the script of "spontaneous mutation, not transmitting" over the increasing set of clustered cases. All TamiFlu Resistant cases from PF11 have had the same Single Nucleotide Polymorphism coding for 275Y in the Neuraminidase and this French case is expected to follow suit. Not random and not spontaneous. We have tracked the details of the 13 available public anti-viral resistant sequences for variation.
225G is now being reported widely as countries increase transparency concerning the antigenic diversity and transmissibility of strains carrying this important Receptor Binding Domain change that has, on lab examination of the 1918 strains, conferred dual receptor specificity for tissue in the upper respiratory system and the deep lung tissue.
Singapore (4 with 225X encoded from aNy nucleotide) *
This drug resistant strain with antigenic diversity in France, an international travel hub, is one Hydra head that merits deep scrutiny.
Several questions come to mind concerning the French report considering the paired cross-segment changes on the Norway3364 sample from September, HAsyn413K and NAsyn407V. At the instant that research centers are identifying cross-segmentlinkages, we are now presented with a second set of pairs crossing the same two segments, HA225G and NA275Y.
Are the French cases contemporary? What are the clinical details? Note also that France published one of the first 225E sequences with Paris2591 from a 23M on 2009-05-01.
225G and 225E strains are co-circulating around the world, in one French case with TamiFlu Resistance, killing hosts quickly by destroying the lungs. Of deepest interest is the exhibition of clear vaccine escape signals if the low reactor status update of one recent Ukraine 225G, LvivN6, is validated. Antigenic diversity, whether due to viral response to human immunity, anti-viral selection pressure or vaccine pressure, is a certainty.
Re: 225G Preliminary Worldwide Tracking & Evaluation
#82:
"A glaring signal is apparent concerning the public's right to informationRelease of important policy-making and family protection information has been blocked as the taxpayer-funded research centers and public health officials continue to withhold even the sparse data from the limited surveillance that has been conducted that may protect their health."
...
"This drug resistant strain with antigenic diversity in France, an international travel hub, is one Hydra head that merits deep scrutiny."
...
"225G and 225E strains are co-circulating around the world, in one French case with TamiFlu Resistance, killing hosts quickly by destroying the lungs. Of deepest interest is the exhibition of clear vaccine escape signals if the low reactor status update of one recent Ukraine 225G, LvivN6, is validated. Antigenic diversity, whether due to viral response to human immunity, anti-viral selection pressure or vaccine pressure, is a certainty.
ΣPF11 is now officially Hydra. "
___
I suppose that people will be more prone to be vaccinated, if the bigbro withholders confirms signs of dangerous antivirals-resistant strains emergence.
But if onto such strain(s) the pandemic vaccine is no more matched, than they probably would not aired much the above.
Than only the supposed adjuvanted vacc. esigue cross-protection could stimulate such vacc.
Does it mean that it is certainly almost confirmed that out there (EU/Worldwide) roaming, one (or more Hydra heads strains) mutated strain (Hydra) for which the actual pandemic vaccine is no more shielding (clear vaccine escape/if validated ...)?
Mutations in the haemagglutinin HA1 gene D222G
Following initial reports from Norway, WHO has noted that a spontaneous mutation in the haemagglutinin gene D222G has been observed in at least seven countries world-wide (1).
These spontaneous mutations have been detected retrospectively following genetic sequencing.
They were first detected in April and were seen in Mexico and the USA and so are not a recent phenomenon (1,2).
Finnish and French virologists reported another three cases last week (3). As in a number of the cases the viruses were reported from two patients with very severe illness who died.
WHO and ECDC are currently assessing the public health significance of this mutation (1,2). It is unclear whether the mutation is especially pathogenic or whether it is somehow selected for in very ill patients. However there is no evidence that the virus is transmitting, none of the patients are reported to be connected to each other and the mutation is not spreading in Europe.
As further sequencing is undertaken reports of its detection in other European countries can be expected.
WHO Public health significance of virus mutation detected in Norway November 20th 2009LINK
WHO virtual press conference 26 November (transcript)LINK
INVS Communiqu? de presse Grippe A (H1N1) 2009 : le point en France m?tropolitaine le 27 novembre 2009LINK
Re: 225G Preliminary Worldwide Tracking & Evaluation
Thank you Ironorehopper:
#84: Franch link (le 27 novembre 2009):
"L’efficacité des vaccins actuellement disponibles n’est pas remise en cause."
___
translated: "The effectiveness of the currently available vaccines is not called into question."
So, it is to be validated yet,
the:
#82: "Of deepest interest is the exhibition of clear vaccine escape signals if the low reactor status update of one recent Ukraine 225G, LvivN6, is validated."
France seems to starts considering an inner pandemic plan upgrade to their max. level 6 (not set yet),
which, from the wroted pandemic plans, is supposed to be raised for severe pandemics, as was the avian flu.
So, it seems that something is stil underwater ...
Re: 225G Preliminary Worldwide Tracking & Evaluation
Tropical, I understand the issues (but thank you for the explanation); I just don't understand his word usage. Why is he proclaiming this is officially "Hydra"?
The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918
Tropical, I understand the issues (but thank you for the explanation); I just don't understand his word usage. Why is he proclaiming this is officially "Hydra"?
I forgot to comment that.
To me, that name is used as a good description of the actual situation,
basing it on the mythical multiheaded animal Hydra:
you cut one head - another emerge
so from such name usage, I interpreted to myself it as:
it seems the actual pandemic virus (which 7 similar strains was already detected) is of a kind which have the ability to create many multi-faced similar (or less similar) variants, with an ability to emerge from various places at the same time.
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