USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

during this week, they changed the chart as shown below.

upper: as it was last Saturday
lower: how it is now, before the new point from this week is added

this could be due to new data from week 6 coming in
but old datapoints also changed slightly


however, it clearly went down during the week without a new
datapoint being added.
And CDC yesterday also showed a small decline


new datapoint expected to be added in some hours

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

going up again !

10 regions:

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

[sharon sanders]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

Thank you Gsgs.

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

still increasing in week 8 !
But last week's datapoint had been reduced now, so in total we are at the same level which
they showed last week.

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

clearly going down now.
Last week's data-point was also corrected downwards





slightly corrected upwards on Friday, new datapoint tomorrow




week 9: decline-speed decreased

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

week10:

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

What's down with region 9?

http://isdsdistribute.org/

[JimO]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

The latest report from LA County, California makes a good point this week and indicates how unusual this season has been/will be. They indicated that %ILI is going down, and the number of flu casing is decreasing, but percent positives are still high and there are more severe cases and new deaths every week. Of their 17 deaths, only one is from flu B and 100% of the Flu A deaths that were subtyped are pH1N1. If you look at the isolates data, Flu B and H3N2 are decreasing, while pH1N1 is increasing.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=160981

If you look at the state of Washington, they haven't reached peak with respect to any indicators.

http://www.doh.wa.gov/EHSPHL/Epidemiology/CD/fluupdate.pdf

On the other extreme, Louisiana has had a very active flu season and appears to have peaked when looking at their %ILI.



First, their samples were dominated by Flu B, then H3N2, and only in the past couple of weeks has pH1N1 shown up. Despite the severe flu season to date, they have only reported one pediatric death. I'm not sure if it was the Texas child that died in a Shreveport hospital or a different child. Unfortunately, the graph does not indicate the percent positive or the number of samples taken. But, it's clear that they have had overlapping waves of Flu B and H3N2 that has kept their %ILI over 10% since Week 1. My concern is that pH1N1 will begin to dominate in a few weeks, causing the severe cases and deaths to mount.



Bear with me for one other example. Illinois (who is chronically a week behind in reporting) is showing past peak for %ILI:



However, there was very little pH1N1 until Week 9:



Illinois has reported 5 pediatric deaths and 2 adult deaths. The Week 9 report of increased %positives is attributed to an outbreak of pH1N1 in a correctional facility.

My point in all this is that although %ILI data in the U.S. suggests that the flu season is nearly over, I believe that the isolates data indicate a strong potential for a second wave dominated by pH1N1. This might not be evident in the national or even regional %ILI data until it is well under way since different states are at various stages of relative increases or decreases of seasonal flu and pH1N1. And, if another wave is dominated by the mutated pH1N1 strain that has apparently escaped the vaccine, then we could have a spring epidemic in the U.S. comparable to the fall of 2009.

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

going up in week 19 !
i.e. region 3 (but not PA,VA,MD)

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

can't work. Delaware is too small to make a change.
There seems to be an error.

population of , ILI-sumissions ratio in % weeks 17,19
R3:29.9M,3.5,4.5
DE: 0.9M,
WV:1.9M
DC:0.6M
PA:12.7M,7.5,7.0
VA:8.0M,1.3,1.0
MD:5.8M,0.9,0.8

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

region 3 is corrected now:

http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/56.html

[gsgs]

Re: USA - Actual ISDS flu trends

........................