Pandemic Chikungunya

[DB]

Chikungunya is clearly Pandemic.

In the past 3 months it has bubbled to the surface in the following countries: (This list represents the reported countries to date, there are most likely more)

• Kenya - ?
• La Reunion - 230,000+ cases
• Maurturius - Thousands
• Seychelles - Thousands
• French Guniea - ?
• Madagascar - 160,000+ cases
• Italy - ?
• France - At least 160
• Norway - ?
• Switzerland - ?
• Germany - ?
• Malaysia - At least hundreds, maybe thousands
• India - 250,000 + cases (Andrha Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and other provinces)

This has all occured within the past 3 months and still it is claimed to be spread by mosquito.

This is just not possible, not with this geographic spread and the extremely high numbers of infections.

In just 3 months the virus completely decimated the island of La Reunion and Toamisina, Madagascar. As of this writing it is starting to do the same in Malaysia and India.

It has shown explosive growth. Growth that can only be modeled by a virus capable of transmitting human-to-human.

All attempts to stop the spread of the virus have been by spraying for mosquitoes. All attempts have failed and the virus has now spread to 3 continents.

Interestingly every country that Chikungunya has been found we also find H5N1 Avian Influenza.

Do you really need WHO to tell you when a pandemic has begun, or can it simply be deduced by looking at the facts?

Contained within this room are the facts on the spread of Chikungunya since January of this year.

If an argument against this virus being pandemic can be made then I invite that argument, but to date all the facts point to one and only one conclusion.

In my opinion Chikungunya is now a pandemic.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

This is the epidemic growth chart for the island of La Reunion.

It peaked at 47,000 cases in early Febuary.

This is what you see when you have pandemic.

These are just the case counts.



Here is a graph for mortality figures in Kansas for 1918.



Yes the graphs look very similar. While one represents deaths and the other represents cases the expontential growth is what defines a pandemic.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

It should also be noted that in 1918 the peak timeframe for infections lasted from the last week of September to the first week of November, roughly 5 weeks.

The peak timeframe for infections for La Reunion in 2006 was from the last week in January to the first week in March, roughly 5 weeks.

The graphs represent the same exponential growth.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

It should also be noted that in 1918 the peak timeframe for infections lasted from the last week of September to the first week of November, roughly 5 weeks.

The peak timeframe for infections for La Reunion in 2006 was from the last week in January to the first week in March, roughly 5 weeks.

The graphs represent the same exponential growth.

Most interesting!

And they were working with relatively isolated small populations. (figuring that in 1918 Kansas City was smaller and didn't have a highly mobile globally interactive population)

So a 6 week quarantine is a reasonable figure.

I haven't been keeping on Chick and maybe you can clarify the origins - I'm reading that it jumped from monkeys in Nigeria about 1991, yet I read about confirmed cases in the Phillipines in 1985. Does anyone know if there was a common origin or did it jump species at multiple locations?

.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

Most interesting!

And they were working with relatively isolated small populations. (figuring that in 1918 Kansas City was smaller and didn't have a highly mobile globally interactive population)

So a 6 week quarantine is a reasonable figure.

I haven't been keeping on Chick and maybe you can clarify the origins - I'm reading that it jumped from monkeys in Nigeria about 1991, yet I read about confirmed cases in the Phillipines in 1985. Does anyone know if there was a common origin or did it jump species at multiple locations?

.

Yes a six week quaratine would seem to do the trick, but you really want 8 to 10 to be sure.

Chikungunya popped up in the 1950's, I am not sure of the origin or if it jumped at multiple locations.

There are some very disturbing coincidences that Chikungunya outbrekas have with H5N1 and these are being seriously investigated.

One thing to keep in mind is that this virus erupted in India, Madagascar and La Reunion at the same time, January 2006.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

I wrote this summary around January 26th. It would seem that I was pretty close with my predictions up to day 98. I was only off by 7,000 cases from my predicted peak and the actual peak.

These are the numbers for how an outbreak of H5N1 Avian Influenza might
unfold in La Reunion.
Population: 776,948.

Day 1: 0 people sick
Day 28: 31 people sick
Day 49: 613 people sick
Day 77: 25,181 people sick
Day 86 (Peak): 39,383 people sick
Day 98: 15,848 people sick
Day 112: 1,807 people sick
Day 126: 170 people sick
Day 147: 8 people sick
Day 168: 1 people sick
Day 182: 0 people sick

An efficient human-to-human strain of H5N1 Avian Influenza in La Reunion
should see numbers somewhere in the range of 40k at it's peak.

Information from newspapers:

Dec 28th 2005: 6,273 official cases, 30,000 semi-official
January 19th 2006: At the beginning of October, the virus which had been
benign for 6 months, became rather dangerous. There is not a family which
does not have patients, and communities are devastated. The subject is
taboo. The virus has already gained the ability to pass from the sick, old
or weakened people.
January 20th 2006: 10,383 listed cases. Doctors mentioned there might be
40,000 cases, maybe more

The January 19th article describes a change in the nature of the virus
sometime in early October.

Based on the expected number of infections from the data above you are
looking around 80-90 days if the start date is early October and the end
data in Dec 28th. If an efficient human-to-human strain of H5N1 Avian
Influenza was present than according to the data we should see somewhere in
the range of 25,181 to 39,383 people sick based on day 77 and day 86
respectively.

On Dec 28th 2005 the official numbers reported were 6,273.
On Jan 19th 2006 the official numbers reported were more than 7600.
On Jan 20th 2006 the official numbers reported were 10,383.
On Jan 26th 2006 the official numbers reported were 22,167.

The semi-offical case numbers as reported on Dec 28th 2005 are 30,000 and as
of Jan 20th 2006 there are reports of possibly 40,000 or 50,000.

Due to the projected case numbers for an efficient human-to-human strain of
H5N1 Avian Influenza and the semi-offical case numbers, there is very strong
possiblity that the malady affecting La Reunion is H5N1 Avian Influenza.

Furthermore, the elapsed time between the virus changing from benign to
dangerous was reported as 6 months. This is important point that should not
be overlooked since recent data from the 1918 pandemic showed that a 'less
virulent' strain of the virus had been circulating starting in March/April
of 1918 and it was not until September/October did a more virulent form of
the virus appear.

Information from forums/blogs/commentaries:

1) Only for my family, of 26 people, 9 developed the disease with same the
sympt?mes (fever sup with 40?C, pains with the articulations, cephalgias,
eruptions cutaneous, vomiting, diarrhoeas, asthenia, mouth ulcers).

The epidemiology report:

Statistics from cases from Feb 22, 2005 to Dec 25, 2005.

Total cases: 6190

580 cases with hemmorhagic symptoms (gingivorragies, h?matome, ?pistaxis,
purpura)
696 diarrhea
895 respiratory/breathlessness
1001 nausea vomiting
1437 cutaneous eruption
2172 headache (migrane/ maybe worse)
2533 muscle pains
2756 Fever
2757 Arthritis like symptoms

Facts:

Only in very rare cases do mosquito born diseases infect members of the same
family. It would be almost impossible to find a case where 9 members of the
same family caught the same mosquito born disease at the same time.

In 1918 the Spanish Flu was nicknamed "The purple death" because of the
hemmorhagic symptoms of the victims.

In 1918 the Spanish Flu caused work stoppage in upwards of 40%.

As of Jan 25th 2006 less than 1% of all cases in La Reunion have been
confirmed as Chikungunya.

This means 99% of the cases are NOT Chikungunya.

6 confirmed deaths.

Based on the projected infection rates, symptoms, distance between mild
cases and severe cases, size of family clusters and failure to confirm 99%
of the cases reported, the disease that is plaguing La Reunion does not
match Chikungunya.

The disease in La Reunion most closely matches the events of 1918 and the
expected scenario of an H5N1 Avian Influenza outbreak.


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[DoubleD]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

Does it appear that chik is now spreading via airborne transmission as opposed to it's traditional method of mosquito transmission?

I am thinking the 400 students that were recently reported ill in China is a possible dengue or chik infection - but airborne.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

I believe, based on the data represented above, that chikungunya or whatever it is that is afflicting all these people is spreading the same way the pandemic influenza of 1918 did. Human-to-human airborne transmission.

I was also thinking the same thing about China. It is neither Flu A or Flu B and it presents with a high fever and sore joints......sounds like Chikungunya.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

We have been advised that we will not be seen as a serious site by experts unless we change the name of this forum to back to "Chikungunya Epidemics".

My response to that is we are a serious site. Look at it. Our Daily Update is factual and without opinion.

We want to elevate the discussion about chikungunya to the level where the experts notice. We want a world dialog on this disease.

We want questions answered:

Where are the sequences from India?
What is the epidemiology of the cases?
Why did aggressive mosquito control on La Reunion fail to control this disease?
Why is chikungunya spreading like wildfire in neighboring islands?
Is the chikungunya in India a different strain or the same strain as in La Reunion?
Why does chikungunya break out in the same areas in India where there have been H5N1 outbreaks in chickens? Is this coincidence or not?

Our intent is not to draw conclusions here. We just want to elevate this discussion so that we can get answers to this public health threat.

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

This strain has been named LR2006-OPY1.
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The complete sequence of the virus strain:
CHIK_OPY1 [or LR2006-OPY1]
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The sequence has been submitted and should [be] released by now or

<o =""></o>>shortly. The Genebank accession number is DQ443544.


It has been deposed by Lyon Pasteur Institute about two weeks or so.<o ="">
</o>

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya?

Thank you Snowy for posting the sequence from La Reunion again.

Do you know about any sequences from India or any of the other countries infected?

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya?

Thank you Snowy for posting the sequence from La Reunion again.

Do you know about any sequences from India or any of the other countries infected?

I doubt very much to see soon at the Genbank any sequence from India.

[DB]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya?

What about the sequences that the CDC has from March of 2005.

If those are available then there should be a way to compare the March 2005 with the March 2006 sequences, right?

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

I would refer to Doctor Niman or Mingus or gsgs or other better qualify to explain the differences in the sequences.

[KC]

Re: Pandemic Chikungunya

State ropes in students to fight chikungunya

They will identify breeding grounds at home; govt machinery mobilises awareness campaigns at grassroots

Express News Service

http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=180560

Pune, May 1: With monsoon just a month away, the State government is taking no chances with chikungunya. It has launched a multi-pronged attack against the viral fever that has infected over 1.5 lakh people in 11 districts of Maharashtra. ??Now, the effort now is to educate school children in villages to identify mosquito-breeding sites in their own homes,?? says Dr P P Doke, director general of health services, Maharashtra.

The viral fever has reached Pune with 138 cases being detected from villages of Nimgaon, Ketaki and Bhongwadi in Indapur taluka. Zilla Parishad officials on Sunday said the disease could infect Purandar, Mulshi, Haveli and Bhor talukas.

While chikungunya, a viral disease transmitted to humans by mosquitoes, has taken people unawares in 571 infected villages of 11 districts in Maharashtra since February-end, health officials are worried about dengue and other viral fevers that strike during the monsoon and post-monsoon. ??We are trying to abort a post-monsoon outbreak,?? Doke told Pune Newsline.

Hence, there has been a stockpiling of drugs and procuring of chemicals to combat the diseases. ??There was not a single case of chikungunya last year. But Maharashtra faced a sizeable number of cases of dengue. The temperature will be conducive for mosquitoes to breed in stagnant rain water that collects in tyres and other containers,?? Doke said, emphasising the urgency to take preventive measures right away.

The machinery is already rolling. The rural development department has been told to purchase fogging machines and anganwadis, gram sevaks and village panchayat workers have been mobilised in the awareness campaign. They have to ensure that each and every container of water is emptied and dried thoroughly, said Doke.

As of now the government has been able to contain the number of cases that were being reported daily from these villages. As many as 4,000 cases of high fever were being reported daily since March. Now, the State has been able to contain it and the figure has now reduced to 965 cases being reported daily. ??For the last ten days, the outbreak has been contained in 283 villages,?? says Doke.

??Reports from the National Institute of Virology (NIV) are awaited for confirmation of the outbreak in Pune district,?? Doke said. However preventive measures have been taken and there have been no cases of fever since April 28, he added.