Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but the word nonsense is a specialicity from You.

The issue of Qinghai Lake was settled in mid-2005. The first 178 dead birds were all bar-headed geese as reported on May 9, 2005. By the time the OIE report was filed May 21, 2005, the number dead had grown to 519. Although most were bar headed geese, there were 4 other species (gulls, geese, and comorants) cited. By June, the number dead topped 5000.

The 1/2 farm nonsense is on a par with a Martian invasion.

After Qinghai Lake, the Qinghai strain spread to 50 countries west of China and initial cases were wild birds in countries that had a somewhat active surveillance program (most obvious in Europe, where there have been very few outbreaks on farms). The pattern was repeated again this summer. The widespread outbreaks in wild birds appears to have now made its way to a farm in Bavaria, long after the outbreaks were reported in Germany this summer.

The movement of H5N1 by wild birds is obvious, as is the OFF TOPIC nature of your wild speculation.

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Please ... that's a fact ...
... Sequences aren't the only sources for a complex epidemiological modell.

The list to bar headed gooses answers in no way, whether the birds are hatched artificial, grown up on a farm ... so it is a speculation in both way.
You should know, that water birds, whether domestic or just "half" fly many kilometers from their farm. No sequences required, no speculation, just a fact.
You can't prove it neither with "dead" sequence datas, whether they were wild or not.


Maybe could give another one answers to these questions?

Here are some of the WILD bird species from Germany in 2006:

Bergente : scaup
Blessralle : coot
Bussard : buzzard
Ente : duck
Eule : owl
Falke : falcon
Gaensesaeger : goosander
Greifvogel : raptor
Graugans : greylag goose
Habicht : goshawk
Haubentaucher : great crested grebe
Hauskatze : domestic cat
Hoeckerschwan : mute swan
Kanada Gans : canada goose
Kormoran : cormorant
Kornweihe : hen harrier
Mausebussard : common buzzard
Moewe : gull
Moewenvogel : gull-like bird
Rabenvogel : raven-like bird
Reiherente : tufted duck
Saeger : merganser
Schwan : swan
Singschwan : whooper swan
Steinmarder : stone marten
Stockente : mallard
Sturmmoewe : mew gull
Tafelente : pochard
Trauerente : common scoter
Turmfalke : kestrel
verwilderte Hausgans : domestic goose ran wild
Wanderfalke : peregrine falcon
Weissstorch : white stork
Wildente : wild duck
Wildgans : wild goose

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but all these sequences don't give an answer how, the 5000 birds at qinghai lake (mostly bar headed gooses) come to HPAI H5N1.
R.G. Webster (the flu pope himself) et al. says that HPAI can only emerge in domestic poultry and will be spread through contact by wild or half domesticated birds. Wild birds are naturally only hosts for LPAI, as Webster et al. says - so ... What is more probable to infect such a large number (5000) of birds?
Half domestication (5000 gooses are nothing for an asian water bird farm) or contact to martians? You would rather prefer the last, than to say, okay maybe someone other than me is probably right. It's e'er the same.

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Sorry, but all these sequences don't give an answer how, the 5000 birds at qinghai lake (mostly bar headed gooses) come to HPAI H5N1.
R.G. Webster (the flu pope himself) et al. says that HPAI can only emerge in domestic poultry and will be spread through contact by wild or half domesticated birds. Wild birds are naturally only hosts for LPAI, as Webster et al. says - so ... What is more probable to infect such a large number (5000) of birds?
Half domestication (5000 gooses are nothing for an asian water bird farm) or contact to martians? You would rather prefer the last, than to say, okay maybe someone other than me is probably right. It's e'er the same.

You are posting giberish.

The Qinghai strain is high path. It is clade 2.2 (as in related to clade 2.1 (Indonesia) and clade 2.3 (Fujian in China) and not far from clade 1(southeast Asia). All are high path and were so long befoire Qinghai Lake/

Qinghai (clade 2.2) is HPAI and evolved from Asian HPAI that traces back to 1996.

Please stop posting misleading information.

You clearly have no idea about how Qinghai evolved. You take a quote out on context and the mis-apply it. That is how fairy tales popagate.

Your remarks have no scientific basis.

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

And how has it emerged to highly pathogenic?
Through martians?

And no, I try to view the problem in a context ... as many flu specialist do it too.
No serious flu specialist only see the sequences. Nature has to be seen always in a complex context. You are fixed on "dead" sequences.

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

And how has it emerged to highly pathogenic?
Through martians?

And no, I try to view the problem in a context ... as many flu specialist do it too.
No serious flu specialist only see the sequences. Nature has to be seen always in a complex context. You are fixed on "dead" sequences.

Clearly this is not your field and you have no idea what you are posting, but the story really is in the sequence.

HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Asia in 1996 in a Guangdong goose. ALL of the H5N1 in Asia and now Europe, the Middle East, and Africa evolved from this version of HIGH PATH H5N1. The H5N1 currently circulating was called the Z genotype when it emerged out of China in 2003/2004. All of the current clades evolved from this Z (or related V) genotype.

Qinghai was HPAI in 2005 when first reported, and Webster's paper in Nature acknowledges that it was related to a 2003 Shantou HIGH PATH H5N1 sequence (as well as the 2003 sequences in South Korea / Japan).

The story is in the sequnece and the story has been quite clear all along.

Bird watchers and conservation groups, who can't read a sequence, spin all kinds of fairly tales that have ZERO basis in fact.

Qinghai in wild birds is virtually the same as Qinghai in poultry, humans, or other mammals. It is the H5N1 that evolves and it has a broad host range.

Trying to spread the "wild birds at victims" or "dead birds don't fly" nonsense simply internet babble, which increased dramatically after Qingahi Lake, because after that outbreak, the ambiguity was gone.

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

You understand obviously not very much from epidemiology,too.

I get to know the complex sytem of distribution, all serious scientist know, that it has to beem cooperated interdisciplinary.
Sometimes, there were made sequences from birds, where we don't know till today, which concrete species, these ducks, goooses were.
No, data to sex, age ... all information could be important to understand the epidemiology.
And finallly not ven You can't exclude, that the gooses of the "first generation" were definitly wild or mybe half domesticated.
It did arise Websters head not mine, that HPAI emerged in domestic poultry after contact with LPAI infected wild birds and "gave" the HPAI back to "wild" birds.
As it is known, that bar headed gooses are artificial hatched, and finally the first effected birds it could be obvious, that they play a important role in the distribution of HPAI H5N1.

It dosn't matter what You say ... there are many serious flu specialists like webster without tunnel view.

As we all can see ... You are the (deleted) on the spot ... Is there any flu forum You spare out?

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

You understand obviously not very much from epidemiology,too.

I get to know the complex sytem of distribution, all serious scientist know, that it has to beem cooperated interdisciplinary.
Sometimes, there were made sequences from birds, where we don't know till today, which concrete species, these ducks, goooses were.
No, data to sex, age ... all information could be important to understand the epidemiology.
And finallly not ven You can't exclude, that the gooses of the "first generation" were definitly wild or mybe half domesticated.
It did arise Websters head not mine, that HPAI emerged in domestic poultry after contact with LPAI infected wild birds and "gave" the HPAI back to "wild" birds.
As it is known, that bar headed gooses are artificial hatched, and finally the first effected birds it could be obvious, that they play a important role in the distribution of HPAI H5N1.

It dosn't bother what You say ... there are many serious flu specialists like webster without tunnel view.

As we all can see ... You are the gabberish Johnny on the spot ... Is there any flu forum You spare out?

The transport and transmission of Qinghai H5N1 by wild birds is a clean as it gets.

Have fun with your fairy tales.

[gsgs]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

maybe each of you can say, how much % of H5N1-infection
by viruses that traveled >1mile he thinks is done by

1) flying migratory birds
2) human transport of birds
3) other (airborne,water,food)

(shall we make a poll from it ?)

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Where is the fairy tale, when I say, that it is important to know the species, and in the case of bar headed gooses it would be interesting to know, whether they were half domesticated or not? That are only some factors which are required to understand the epidemiological modell in toto.
In 2005/2006 sometimes the birds weren't even specified. Great, now we have a sequenced dead duck, but if we would know the definite species, the flu scientist would know more today, which species are more effected. Till today, noone can draw a clear picture of the distribution/emerging modell.

In fact I believe R.G. Webster et al. are close on that what You call fairy tale.
Maybe You didn't get it through, but i don't believe on dead ducks don't fly ... what i believe is based on different facts ... sequences, datas from interdisciplinary sciences ... which create a complex epidemiological modell ... genetic sequences are just the "heart" of it.

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

Where is the fairy tale, when I say, that it is important to know the species, and in the case of bar headed gooses it would be interesting to know, whether they were half domesticated or not? That are only some factors which are required to understand the epidemiological modell in toto.
In 2005/2006 sometimes the birds weren't even specified. Great, now we have a sequenced dead duck, but if we would know the definite species, the flu scientist would know more today, which species are more effected. Till today, noone can draw a clear picture of the distribution/emerging modell.

In fact I believe R.G. Webster et al. are close on that what You call fairy tale.
Maybe You didn't get it through, but i don't believe on dead ducks don't fly ... what i believe is based on different facts ... sequences, datas from interdisciplinary sciences ... which create a complex epidemiological modell ... genetic sequences are just the "heart" of it.

The bird watcher fairy tales are all over the internet. I am sure you can find others that would like to hear more of the nonsense, but the real story is in the sequence, and it could not be clearer.

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

maybe each of you can say, how much % of H5N1-infection
by viruses that traveled >1mile he thinks is done by

1) flying migratory birds
2) human transport of birds
3) other (airborne,water,food)

(shall we make a poll from it ?)

Please. Read the title of the thread. It is on the spread of H5N1, which has jumped to Europe, the Middle East, amd Africa (and not by 1 mile hops).

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

For these who are interested in ...

Chinese admit breeding wild birds near Qinghai Lake.

The hypothesis that migratory birds are responsible for spreading
avian flu over long distances has taken another knock. Last year, an
outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain in thousands of migratory birds at
Qinghai Lake in western China provided what seemed the first firm
evidence for the idea. Because the lake is so remote, experts assumed
infected birds had flown up from southern China.

But it has now emerged that, since 2003, one of the key migratory
species affected, the bar-headed goose, has been artificially reared
near the lake. The breeding farms -- part of an experimental
programme to both domesticate the birds and release them to
repopulate wild stocks -- raise the possibility that farmed birds
were the source of the outbreak.

Roy Wadia, a World Health Organization (WHO) spokesman in Beijing,
agrees that, if confirmed, the finding is "important", as changing
the breeding practice might help control the infection.

Yi Guan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, co-authored a
Nature paper last July that suggested migrating birds caused the
outbreak (see Nature 436, 191?192; 2005). Guan says he had heard
rumours of the programme when he submitted his paper, but couldn't
confirm them.

There is no proof that China's breeding programme caused the Qinghai
outbreak, but it does raise questions, he says. "The cultivation of
bar-headed geese increases the chance for these birds to mix with
infected domestic poultry."

Ironically, the breeding programme was revealed by Chinese press
agencies reporting on the government's efforts to boost agriculture
and the environment in the region ahead of the opening of the
Qinghai-Tibet railway in July; the railway is expected to promote
tourism and economic growth.

Richard Thomas of BirdLife International in Cambridge, UK, spotted
the press cuttings, and posted English translations to a blog
(http://www.drmartinwilliams.com). Whether farmed migrant birds
caused the outbreak or not, it's a "cautionary tale", says Ken
Shortridge, a veteran avian-flu researcher in China. He argues that
such a programme does not sufficiently take into account the threat
of H5N1.

The idea that migrating birds didn't carry the virus to Qinghai after
all would fit with other recent evidence. Juan Lubroth, a senior
animal-health officer at the UN Food and Agricultural Organization
(FAO), says he is now sceptical that migrants can carry the virus
over long distances. For example, the current spring migration from
Africa to Europe is almost over, with no sign of outbreaks. The FAO
has also checked 20,000 wild birds in Africa and found no H5N1.
Source: Nature.com

AVIAN INFLUENZA (48): CHINA (TIBET), BAR-HEADED GEESE BREEDING
************************************************** ************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

[ProMED-mail posting "Avian influenza (47): China (Tibet), Kuwait,
Viet Nam 20070307.0805" included a request for information on the
breeding or domestication of bar-headed geese in China. The following
information, translated from Chinese websites, has been subsequently
received from Dan Silver who is gratefully acknowledged. - Mod.AS]

Date: Thu 8 Mar 2007
From: Dan Silver <dgsilver@yahoo.com>


Below are a few pieces of information gathered from online
Chinese-language sources, in response to your request for information
about bar-headed goose breeding in China.

1. A write-up on the website 'Wetlands.cn' states that the National
Bird Banding Center of China has conducted research on bar-headed
geese and brown-headed gulls in Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve since
1985 and "in recent years the Management Office has undertaken
captive breeding, abandoned egg incubation experiments, research on
ecological habits, etc. of bar-headed geese."
<http://www.wetlands.cn/data/im/qing/2373.html>

2. 'Wetlands' further states the number of bar-headed geese in
Qinghai Lake and its surroundings was determined to be 5520 in a
1988-89 survey.

3. 'China Green Times' puts the number of bar-headed geese in Qinghai
Lake and its surroundings at 12 100 in an article dated 2 Feb 2007.
<http://www.greentimes.com/News/lm_123/73023.asp>

4. Articles from mid-2006, such as one from 'Chinabreed.com',
describe bar-headed goose meat farming as a nascent and potentially
lucrative niche for farmers in China.
<http://www.chinabreed.com/special/205/2006/06/2006061564359.shtml>

5. An article on 'Chunming 888', a commercial agriculture website,
states that there are bar-headed goose farms in some parts of Tibet.
The article also states that bar-headed geese are rarely affected by
disease, making them well suited to commercial breeding with minimal
use of antibiotics. For sure ... they forgot H5N1.
<http://www.cm888.com/bantouyan.htm>

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[It will help to know if vaccination is applied in the captive
bar-headed geese and if their breeding is carried out in facilities
that allow contact with wild, free roaming geese. - Mod.AS]
Source: ProMEDmail Published Date 08-MAR-2007

[HenryN]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

For these who are interested in ...

Posting Promed propagamda really doesn't do much. You are have problems with VERY basic concepts of infectious disease as well as H5N1 evolution. As noted earlier, the Qinghai strain is like H5N1 from EASTERN Asia (Shantou in southern China, and South Korea / Japan east of northern China.

Neither Promed commentators or anyone remotely linked to Dr William Martin (a former physicist? who does wild bird tours in Hong Kong) can read a sequence, so they are quite clueless on the evolution front.

Remarkably, they are also lost on the infectious disease front. H5N1 is widespread in China, which is why the H5N1 flying out of China is so much cleaner and EASIER to interpret.

H5N1 goes from host to host, so the origin of the H5N1 in the bar headed geese at Qinghai Lake really has little to do with its spread from China to Mongolia/Russia/Kazakhstan followed by Europe. the Middle East, and Africa. Most of the more than 5000 dead birds at Qinghai Lake in 2005 were bar headed geese, which could have been infected in MANY places, including India, where they winter.

In May, 2005 the H5N1 VIRUS had already moved into at least FIVE species at Qinghai Lake. Included in the intial deaths at REMOTE Erhel Lake in Mongolia was a bar-headed goose, along with whooper swans. In Russia, over TWO DOZEN wild bird species were H5N1 confirmed.

The Qinghai strain subsequently spread throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. NONE of these regions had H5N1 before Qinghai, and ALL H5N1 after Qinghai Lake was the Qinghai strains.

Like the pictures, the Promed propaganda really does not provide a source or have anything to do with the transport and transmission of Qinghai H5N1 in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

The focus on the host is a bird watchers approach, which is why so many bird watchers and conservationists swallow the propaganda hook, line, and sinker.

[Coleman]

Re: Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds

HIV goes from human to human ... but nevertheless we know today, that the link between SIV and HIV are bush meat hunter ... still today.

Finally it's a fact, that bar headed geese are an industrial factor in china, which are obviously a link to other wild bird species, too.

What happend in Europe, noone doubt here, I don't know,what You want?
I just relate me to the qinghai period, what happend later is almost known.

The homology from the pochard and turkey in france interested me personally, because I'm interested in datas. I have no reason to doubt the impact of wild birds, but finally noone knows details how the virus came to the turkeys in Versailieux in France and in Wermsdorf in Saxon, Germany, both in close buildings. Sorry, that there are people who want to understand the process, and sequences don't answer all questions in toto. Therefore, these people can believe seriously in science nevertheless.