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Osterholm warns about pandemic

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  • #46
    Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

    and BTW., females are just often thinking differently about some things.
    More of a social, cultural thing than being less capable.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

      now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
      subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
      The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
      at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
      What's the appropriate sub-forum ?
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

        Originally posted by gsgs
        now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
        subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
        The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
        at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
        What's the appropriate sub-forum ?
        I will set it up and link it here.


        Done:

        http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...1582#post31582
        Last edited by sharon sanders; September 17, 2006, 11:05 AM.

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

          Sorry, I just don't see the point.

          What difference does a percentage make? If I am alive and well, I plan on eating. How can I possibly over prepare?

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

            Florida1, thanks. Can you delete H5N1, so any flu-pandemic will count ?
            (i.e. also with reassorted H5N1).
            I wished the experts would vote here too.
            They could remain anonymous but we would have to verify
            that they are experts.

            granny, overpreparing is, when you spend too much money,
            relocate,divorce,...while the threat is small, isn't worth it.
            E.g. most people think that getting a vaccine-shot in 1976
            against swine flu was over-prepping
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

              gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                but seasonal flu is not considered a pandemic
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                  Why not?

                  A pandemic (from Greek pan all + demos people) is an epidemic (an outbreak of an infectious disease) that spreads worldwide, or at least across a large region.

                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                    ask WHO etc.
                    It's very uncommon to count seasonal flu as pandemic.
                    There were 3 (flu-)pandemics last century:1918,1957,1968.

                    Look at the title of this thread, Osterholm won't
                    warn about seasonal flu
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                      Yes - that is my point. We are talking only about H5N1 here.

                      We agree on something!!!

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                        no, H5N1 might reassort with (e.g.) H3N2 to form a pandemic of H5N2 or H3N1 or H5N1 or H3N2.
                        Or H7N7 goes pandemic. Or a H1N1 pandemic reoccurs.

                        Somehow I feel that you are trying to ridicule the thing.

                        Somehow I feel that still no one here agrees that the most
                        important thing ATM is to get the experts give us their estimates.
                        Same in other forums.

                        People don't want it to be elaborated, how big the threat is.
                        Weird.

                        People in forums don't become meditative when experts and normal
                        people have completely different estimates than they have.
                        Weird.

                        Weird and disappointing. And unlogical. And prevalent, even among
                        experts.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                          Originally posted by Florida1
                          gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.
                          So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                            Originally posted by Sonny
                            So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?
                            This is a possibility, but without knowing if this will happen, is it not possible to call it H5N1, now, for discussion and poll purposes?

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                              I think some people need to take a break.

                              Go for a walk.

                              Have a nice meal.

                              Read a book.

                              It is mentally unhealthy to "do bird flu" 24/7.

                              Come back tomorrow.

                              The fight over semantics will seem trivial.


                              </IMG>

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

                                OK, A Pandemic Flu no matter what it's called.
                                I voted.

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