Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED - 6 of 7 CLEARED upon appeal

[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED - 6 of 7 CLEARED upon appeal

Italian earthquake case is no anti-science witch-hunt

16:40 23 October 2012
Magazine issue 2888

...
It is easy to feel outrage at the jail terms handed down to six Italian seismologists and a civil servant this week. How could anyone hope to have predicted the earthquake that devastated L'Aquila in 2009?

That is the rallying cry, but failure to predict the quake is not, in fact, what the seven men have been convicted of. The prosecution made it crystal clear all along that their case was about poor risk communication; it was built on an accusation of giving out "inexact, incomplete and contradictory information".

On this charge, there was clearly a case to answer. Employed by Italy's Major Hazards Committee to assess earthquake risks and communicate them to the government and the public, the seismologists got the science right, but left the job of public communication to a civil protection official with no specialist knowledge of seismology. His statement to the press was, to put it mildly, a grossly inaccurate reflection of the situation: "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favourable." At this point, the seismologists should have stepped in. But they did not, and the message stuck....

... Scientists valued for their expertise should speak for themselves rather than letting others speak for them. Lives are at stake.

Full text:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22416-italian-earthquake-case-is-no-antiscience-witchhunt.html

[Laidback Al]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

These convictions were about poor risk communication, and more broadly, about the responsibility scientists have as citizens to share their expertise in order to help people make informed and healthy choices.

If it is about risk communication, then who bears the burden? The scientists apparently were truthful. Maybe the public should bring a suit against the politicians for poor interpretation or communication? Maybe it is the fault of the general populace for not being self-informed and interpreting the information for themselves? After all, earthquakes are not rare in Italy.

It seems to me that some are searching to place blame for a natural disaster. By definition, natural disasters are unpredictable. But lets blame someone anyway.

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[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Please take note that this article is dated of June 3, 2011

If you?re waiting for an earthquake warning, you?re doing it wrong

Posted on June 3, 2011 by Chris Rowan

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The message the seismologists probably wanted to convey (and, admittedly, failed to) was that there was no immediate danger ? beyond the normal risks associated with living in a tectonically active region. In Italy, events like the 2009 earthquake are no surprise at all: since 1900 the country has been stuck by 11 magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes, including the 1915 Avezzano earthquake, only 30 km or so south of L?Aquila, that had an estimated magnitude of 7 and killed more than 30,000 people. Italy?s equivalent of the USGS or BGS, the INGV, produced this map of the seismic hazard in 2004. Guess which city falls smack bang in the middle of one of the areas of highest risk?

Seismic hazard map for Italy, showing the peak ground accelerations that have a 10% chance of being exceeded in 50 years. Source: INGV.

This is the real crux of the issue: for those living in L?Aquila, a damaging earthquake was inevitable. And, given that there is no reliable method of short-term earthquake prediction, waiting for some sort of official warning so that you could then rush around like a headless chicken is not a good strategy. What you need to do is acknowledge you live in a seismically active area, and be prepared for the earthquakes that are a consequence of this, whenever they chose to strike. For the authorities, this means setting and enforcing building codes, improving the resilience of vital infrastructure, and making sure clear emergency response plans are in place. For the general populace, it is about making sure you know how to best protect yourself when your house starts shaking.
...

Full text:

http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2011/06/if-youre-waiting-for-an-earthquake-warning-youre-doing-it-wrong/

[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Translation Google

Note the consequences of the judgment of the Department Major Risks

October 23, 2012

The Civil Protection Department feels obliged to draw the picture of the consequences are already affecting the National Service of Civil Protection as a result of convictions issued yesterday by the Court of L'Aquila against four former members of the National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks, the then Deputy Head of the Department of Civil Protection, the Director of Risk seismic and volcanic Department itself and the then director of the National Center for Earthquake National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

The first consequence concerns the resignation formally presented to the President of the Council of Ministers by the members of the Commission appointed Major Risks December 23, 2011, as well as those of Professor Mauro Dolce, director of the seismic and volcanic risk of the Department.

The second leads to paralysis of foresight and prevention, since it is easy to imagine the impact of this story on all those who are called to take responsibility in these areas considered to be the pillars of a modern civil protection. The risk is that it will decline more than twenty years ago, when the civil protection was only helping and assisting in emergency occurred. Or that those who are responsible for evaluating end to raise the alert level to the maximum whenever the forecast models provide diverse scenarios, generating an exponential growth of alarms that will cause absolute distrust of those who emits or panic among the population.

In both cases, the institutions - first of all the mayors - which by law are required to plan and make decisions to protect their own citizens, it will have to do without the fundamental support of those who until yesterday, having the necessary skills and experiences, provided assessments and interpretations on a number of risks that affect the Italian territory and that now no longer feel protected by the country for which they serve.

Thirdly, we can not forget how many issues, being acutely, which the Department of Civil Protection in danger of losing essential partners: for example, the earthquake swarm going on for almost two years in the Pollino, or reference scenarios for updating the national contingency plans for the Neapolitan volcanoes.

If the judgment apparently seems to affect only the scientific world, remember, finally, that touches instead heavily other realities and professionalism cornerstone of the National Service of Civil Protection: from hundreds of technical Functional Centres and Centres of expertise every day take care to monitor, supervise and evaluate the natural phenomena in order dell'allertamento administrations and operational structures, but also the many professionals of many orders that free and voluntarily provide their time and expertise in emergency. Last example in this regard was the work in the post-earthquake in Emilia, where they contributed to the development of tens of thousands of tests of viability of the damaged buildings.

Against this background, without prejudice to the responsibilities for which everyone is called to respond, the Civil Defence Department, while ensuring to perform their own tasks, hopes that the institutions of the country to find a way to return to serenity and efficiency 'whole system in the conduct of its activities.

http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/jcms/it/view_com.wp;jsessionid=0BB9D49A9CCF20A6E3CDCAB6AB84A7D0?contentId=COM35850

[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Nature | Editorial

Shock and law

</HGROUP>The Italian system?s contempt for its scientists is made plain by the guilty verdict in L?Aquila.

<TIME datetime="2012-10-23" pubdate="">
23 October 2012
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The seven ? Bernardo De Bernardinis, Enzo Boschi, Giulio Selvaggi, Franco Barberi, Claudio Eva, Mauro Dolce and Gian Michele Calvi ? are appealing against the verdict. They will remain free until the appeals process is finished, which could take years.

That provides an opportunity.There will be time enough to ponder the wider implications of the verdict, but for now all efforts should be channelled into protest, both at the severity of the sentence and at scientists being criminalized for the way their opinions were communicated. Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States. Billi should promptly explain his decision, and the scientific community should promptly challenge it.

Full text:

http://www.nature.com/news/shock-and-law-1.11643

</TIME>

[Emily]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

http://www.economist.com/news/scienc...n-cleared-laws

L?Aquila?s earthquake
The laws and physics
Six of seven scientists convicted for earthquake advice have been cleared
Nov 15th 2014 | L?Aquila