Opinion piece: Don?t Get Married to the (H7N9) Bird Flu Stock Bump

[Emily]

Includes analysis of who?s on the winning and losing ends of the current contagion:

http://investorplace.com/2013/04/don...lu-stock-bump/

Don?t Get Married to the Bird Flu Stock Bump
H7N9 should blow over like previous flus, and quick gains and losses should level out
By James Brumley, InvestorPlace Contributor | Apr 10, 2013, 2:22 pm EDT

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Opinion piece: Don?t Get Married to the (H7N9) Bird Flu Stock Bump

My opinion of this piece is the author, Brumly, has a background in economics and therefore sees everything through an economic lens. He has no background in medicine, research or public health. His rationale is that H5N1 was no big deal so this isn't a big deal either. He has every right to his opinon and may certainly publish it but, bear in mind that his background is hardly ideal for making statements that negate any possibility that this may turn into something far more devastating than investors loosing money in fast food markets.

[Emily]

Re: Opinion piece: Don?t Get Married to the (H7N9) Bird Flu Stock Bump

He has no background in medicine, research or public health.

That's very true and why I placed this in this forum. Opinion is opinion, but I think his financial insight about winners and losers is valuable as one factor in vetting motives for hyping or repressing news. (In fact, MSM is another winner whenever anything can be hyped.)

[Laidback Al]

Re: Opinion piece: Don?t Get Married to the (H7N9) Bird Flu Stock Bump

from James Brumley's bio -

James Brumley is a reformed stock broker. . . He's now primarily a freelance writer, tapping more than a decade's worth of broad experience to help investors get more out of the market.

My Brumley makes a living writing about the stock market. A novel influenza outbreak is simply another angle to talk about stock price movement.

He points out two possible winners from a frenzy about bird flu (H7N9) - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) because of Peramivir and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) because of influenza manufacturing capabilities.

BCRX is the manufacture of Peramivir, a neuraminidase inhibitor that has a similar function as oseltamivir which has been used successfully to treat H5N1 patients. However, there is no formal evidence that neuraminidase inhibitors are effective against H7N9, although there is reason to believe they will worked if administered quickly after onset. This stock already had a bump, so it is too late now, especially if you think a potential H7N9 pandemic is just hype.

GSK manufactures two influenza vaccines, Fluarix and Pademrix (not available in the USA). While vaccine production helps pay the bills for pharmaceutical companies, it is not a major money maker. Brunley implies that GSK will be a winner because "It [GSK] is also best equipped to custom-make a lot of H7N9 vaccine . . . " This is not a good bet for day traders or speculators. Right now there is no H7N9 seed strain for manufacturers to scale up production. Nor is there yet evidence that public health officials will recommend vaccination against H7N9.

I don't know how Mr. Brumley personally feels about the potential for an H7N9 pandemic. But, the multitude of media reports on H7N9 provide fodder for his freelance writing career on stock picking, pandemic or pandemic hype.
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[Emily]

Re: Opinion piece: Don?t Get Married to the (H7N9) Bird Flu Stock Bump

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewh...companies-2/2/

WSJ September 29, 2009
U.S. Drug Companies Chase Vaccines
By JONATHAN D. ROCKOFF and PETER LOFTUS

Amid rising concern about the threat of influenza pandemics, three big drug makers announced deals Monday that give them rights to new flu vaccines, placing bets on one of the pharmaceutical industry's brightest, but riskiest, segments.

The deals reflect the growing conviction among pharmaceutical executives that vaccines against a variety of maladies, long an industry stepchild, will become an increasingly important source of growth to replace aging blockbusters that are poised to lose patent protection.

Vaccine sales are growing faster than sales of other prescription medicines and are largely immune to the generic competition that is already costing drug makers billions of dollars in revenues on their top-selling treatments.

Moreover, government agencies both in the U.S. and around the world are increasingly reliable buyers of vaccines as they seek to stockpile medicines that could help protect the public in case of a major flu outbreak...

What Bill Gates Says About Drug Companies
Matthew Herper, Forbes Staff
11/10/2011 @ 6:4
[snip]
Ten or fifteen years ago, nobody in the drug business would have held up vaccines as profit centers. That was the age of Pfizer?s Viagra having the fastest drug launch in history, of the even bigger cholesterol-lowering medicine Lipitor becoming the best-selling drug in history and forcing Pfizer?s $116 billion buyout of partner Warner-Lambert, ushering in a new age of megamergers that experts believe may have squelched innovation in drug company labs.

Says Gates: ?If you 15 years ago had said, ?How important are vaccines to these various businesses?? They would have said, ?You know, our drug businesses are going to do so well. And vaccines are so tough, particularly because of liability issues.??.
[snip]
Gates thinks it is ?ironic? that vaccines have done so well, along with AIDS drugs that have been a boon to companies like Gilead, one of the biggest biotechnology companies, and Merck, while heartburn medicines, cholesterol drugs, and antidepressants have failed to pay off.

When it comes to cancer drugs like Avastin and Erbitux, some of the biggest sales successes of the past decade, Gates seems unimpressed. ?There?s always this divergence between what?s financially attractive and what has dramatic profit and the number of life years that you really save.? Take for instance, Novartis? Gleevec, the crown jewel of targeted cancer drugs that can put chronic myelogenous leukemia and gastrointestinal stromal tumors into remission. ?Do the math on that versus, says, preventing Parkinson?s or preventing Alzheimer?s. It?s in a different universe.?

The good news, to Gates? mind, is that right now people are making money in the vaccine business. That means that more research is getting funded, and more innovation is happening...

2011: Total Calculated Compensation $8,432,757