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  • #76
    CDC leaves the decision on whether to test up to the community and physician

    The CDC's current novel H1N1 testing recommendation is broad, simply saying:

    "Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome."

    If that simple sentence were followed, there would be much more testing than takes place during a normal, seasonal flu season. And that is what the data are being compared to, seasonal flu data gathered and processed through the same system, for an apples to apples comparison.

    However, the CDC recognizes that the final decision is up to the physician based on guidance from the local health authorities. (Just like a normal flu season.) That makes sense since it is medical decision.

    Which patients should be tested for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus?

    Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome. Certain groups may have atypical presentations including infants, elderly and persons with compromised immune systems. Priority for testing includes persons who 1) require hospitalization or 2) are at high-risk for severe disease (as listed above). To test for novel H1N1 influenza virus, upper respiratory specimens, such as a nasopharyngeal swab or aspirate, nasal swab plus a throat swab or nasal wash, or tracheal aspirate should be collected. Persons who perform nasal and tracheal aspirate collections on ill persons require appropriate personal protective equipment. Specimens should be sent to the state public health laboratory. Not all people with suspected novel influenza (H1N1) infection need to have the diagnosis confirmed, especially if the person resides in an affected area or if the illness is mild. Recommendations on who to test may differ by state or community. Clinicians should be aware of local guidance on testing and should use their clinical judgment in addition to this guidance for deciding when to test for novel influenza A (H1N1).

    Comment


    • #77
      Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

      CDC data will be compared to data from other countries
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #78
        Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
        CDC data will be compared to data from other countries
        The countries that are just looking at airports (well beyond hopes and dreams)?

        Comment


        • #79
          Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

          Tough tests skewing swine flu figures: expert

          Posted 23 minutes ago
          Figures suggesting Victoria has the highest per capita rate of swine flu in the world may simply be down to Australia's tough testing regime, a University of Sydney professor says.
          The latest figures from the World Health Organisation say in just two days the United States confirmed 1001 new cases of the virus, Mexico 543, and Australia 375.
          Australia's tally of confirmed H1N1 cases was 1,051 last night, more than 870 of them in Victoria.
          But Professor Robert Booy from the University of Sydney says the United States and Mexico are not screening suspect cases as thoroughly as Australia, and probably have more cases than have been reported.
          "The truth is that Australia is probably the best in the world at detecting this influenza virus," he said.
          "And so we have a tremendous bias going on; where we're finding most of our cases through good laboratory detection, and the United States and other places, they're not even testing everybody who probably have the disease," he said.
          "I would be quite certain that there's ten to a hundredfold more cases in the US than are confirmed.
          "So it's totally, totally, a bias of how we go about detecting disease, in that we're just so much more thorough in Australia, and we pay much more attention."
          Professor Booy says it is ridiculous to blame Victoria for the spread of the virus interstate.
          "Right now we need to do sensible things. Saying that students that come back should be quarantined is a good idea, because they are the ones that are the big spreaders of disease right now [but] trying to shut down the whole of commerce and business interaction is quite silly," he said.
          Professor Raina MacIntyre says she is surprised that the outbreak has not been more significant in New South Wales.
          "Once it starts spreading among school children, it spreads very rapidly; children excrete the virus for longer, they're more infectious, but it doesn't appear to have affected schools to the same extent in New South Wales," she said.
          The Victorian Government has now scrapped a policy to shut down schools if a student contracts the virus.
          According to the latest figures from the World Health Organisation there are 21,940 confirmed cases of the virus world-wide, with the death toll remaining at 125.
          Tags: swine-influenza, australia, vic

          seems he is telling it like it is
          <!--*stop_indexing*-->

          Comment


          • #80
            Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

            Originally posted by dr kockosh View Post
            Tough tests skewing swine flu figures: expert


            "I would be quite certain that there's ten to a hundredfold more cases in the US than are confirmed.
            "So it's totally, totally, a bias of how we go about detecting disease, in that we're just so much more thorough in Australia, and we pay much more attention."


            seems he is telling it like it is
            <!--*stop_indexing*-->
            Actually, the numbers in the US are likely to be much more than 10-100X more. Earlier I had posted the piece from Revere, but it was pulled because I mentioned the location (which has a VERY high rate of swine H1N1). The point of the piece however was the fact that it looked like all members of his family were infected (attack rate of 100&#37 as were many of the children at the day care center of his grandchildren, but NONE were reported. Even though there were six family members with symptoms, he couldn't say for certain that any were confrmed because only one was tested and was influenza A positive (although it is virtually certain that all are H1N1 positive).

            The number of cases in the US is in the millions, but the number confirmed is in the thousands. Similarly, most countries outside of North America are focused on screening airline passengers and ignoring the local community spread, whch is EXTENSIVE becasue the transission of the H1N1 is EFFICIENT and SUSTAINED, "WHO speak" notwithstanding.

            Comment


            • #81
              Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

              Just check the chronology.
              The original M**flu-reassortment is more likely to have happened in Mexico
              than in California. First outbreaks were in Mexico, the Mexican sequences have fewer mutations.
              Remember all the travelers coming from Cancun with flu ?
              No strains from California or elsewhere found to travel into Mexico.
              Mexican government has formed a commission to investigate LaGloria, which they
              themselves consider the likely origin.

              With birdflu, Fujian,Qinghai etc. it's even more uncertain. You can't ask wild birds
              where they came from. The Qinghai reassortment, did it happen at Qinghai-lake ?
              The Indonesian strain, didn't it come from China or Vietnam ?
              It's called after the location of the first outbreaks.
              Except Spanish flu, which was just because the Spanish king got it or such
              while war-countries had censorship.
              Hongkong flu,Asian flu,Russian flu, Brisbane-strain, Fujian H3N2,

              suppose they had called it in 1918 novel-flu.
              Then novel-novel flu in 1977 and now novel-novel-novel flu ??!?!?
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #82
                Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                first isolate 11.March, M**ico
                CA-sequences not original.

                A/M**ico/4115
                A/M**ico/InDRE4487

                remember niman discussing, why the Fujian strain were the Fujian strain
                despite China complaining
                Claifornia isolates were also in March:

                ##EpifluData-START##
                Isolate A/California/05/2009
                Subtype H1N1
                Segment_name HA
                Host_gender F
                Host_age 9
                Passage_history C1
                Adamantane_resistance resistant
                Zanamivir_resistance sensitive
                Oseltamivir_resistance sensitive
                Country USA
                State/Province California state
                Collection_day 30
                Collection_month 3
                Collection_year 2009
                EPI_accession EPI176493

                Comment


                • #83
                  Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                  Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                  Just check the chronology.
                  The original M**flu-reassortment is more likely to have happened in Mexico
                  than in California. First outbreaks were in Mexico, the Mexican sequences have fewer mutations.
                  Remember all the travelers coming from Cancun with flu ?
                  No strains from California or elsewhere found to travel into Mexico.
                  Mexican government has formed a commission to investigate LaGloria, which they
                  themselves consider the likely origin.

                  With birdflu, Fujian,Qinghai etc. it's even more uncertain. You can't ask wild birds
                  where they came from. The Qinghai reassortment, did it happen at Qinghai-lake ?
                  The Indonesian strain, didn't it come from China or Vietnam ?
                  It's called after the location of the first outbreaks.
                  Except Spanish flu, which was just because the Spanish king got it or such
                  while war-countries had censorship.
                  Hongkong flu,Asian flu,Russian flu, Brisbane-strain, Fujian H3N2,

                  suppose they had called it in 1918 novel-flu.
                  Then novel-novel flu in 1977 and now novel-novel-novel flu ??!?!?
                  The above names refer to new isolates that were easily traced to a location and were clearly the origin. For the human swine H1N1, the sequences in Mexico and California are virtually identical and isolated a few weeks apart in March. The true origin for this new sub-clade was swine, and the original swine isolates havent been identifed. The closest match was in the isolates from swine in Alberta.

                  As far as reassortment is concerned, there is evidence for the reassortment happening in Thailand prior to North America.

                  Thus, the evidence for Mexico is quite murkey, and no one is calling it Mexican flu.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                    could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


                    CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
                    reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
                    Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
                    onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



                    it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
                    changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
                    I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
                    will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                      Siegf., #76:
                      "The CDC's current novel H1N1 testing recommendation is broad, simply saying:

                      "Clinicians should test persons for the novel influenza (H1N1) virus if they have an acute febrile respiratory illness or sepsis-like syndrome."


                      The second one does not resemble an mild, nor moderate symptome.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                        could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


                        CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
                        reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
                        Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
                        onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



                        it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
                        changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
                        I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
                        will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
                        A further human case of swine influenza,
                        A/Thailand/271/2005, contains genes from both North
                        American and Eurasian swine influenza lineages (
                        29)
                        indicating previous reassortment between these two swine

                        virus lineages.


                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                          Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                          could you please point me to the evidence for reassortment in Thailand ?


                          CA-sequences have mutations and are from late March
                          reports of widespread ILI in Mex and deaths earlier
                          Cancun the origin of worldwide spread of the 11-marker-virus
                          onset of first confirmed case in Mex = 11.Mar



                          it was first called M**ican flu, but Mexico protested and WHO
                          changed it to swine flu, then H1N1 (which is ambiguous)
                          I anticipate other countries protesting in future and flu-strains
                          will get cryptic names which will confuse reporters.
                          Reality check:

                          Given the history of reassortment events of swine
                          influenza, it is likely that additional reassortant viruses have
                          emerged but have not been sampled. The poor surveillance
                          for swine influenza viruses and the observation that the
                          closest ancestral gene for each of the eight gene segments is
                          of swine origin suggests that this virus might have been
                          circulating undetected among swine herds somewhere in the
                          world. Several scenarios exist, including reassortment in Asia
                          or the Americas, for the events that have led to the genesis of
                          the 2009 A(H1N1) virus. Where the reassortment event(s)
                          most likely happened is currently unclear.


                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                            Originally posted by niman View Post
                            A further human case of swine influenza,
                            A/Thailand/271/2005, contains genes from both North
                            American and Eurasian swine influenza lineages (
                            29)
                            indicating previous reassortment between these two swine

                            virus lineages.



                            we had this before. It's a totally different strain and unrelated to M**flu.
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                              the same holds for the Qinghai-strain
                              (even more, since swine don't fly, usually)
                              yet you call it Qinghai-strain.
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

                                Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                                we had this before. It's a totally different strain and unrelated to M**flu.
                                See reality check above. The database on swne is VERY small. No one can say of the swine sequences most closley related to the swine in humans is from swine in Mexico, United States, or Canada (or some country in Central or South America).

                                No one is calling it Mexican flu, because its origins remain murkey.

                                Comment

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