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WHO Declares Phase 6 - Full Pandemic Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

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  • #61
    Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

    Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
    Approximately 150,000 people die every day on the earth. Give or take a few thousand.
    How about lightning?

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

      Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
      It is pointless to try to read something into the 249 number. It could be his pick for a lotto for all we know.

      The actual number of deaths in the world from Novel H1N1 most likely far exceeds 249.
      I would put the 249 into the significant category (but not as a lottery pick).

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

        Such similar "bad lottery" number floated already previously for Mexico only, later retracted by spectacular detractions of probable victims by the "record story".

        Later, widely, it change in another "underlying conditions reasons" story, when it happened to more victims.

        Only those few places victims numbers probably far exceed the eluded 2XX WHO count.

        If we watch from the above perspective, it could be possible that worldwide there are already significantly more cases of flu related victims.

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

          It looks like moving to phase 6 will have some legal impact. A vaccine maker says that if a pandemic is declared, their contracts obligate them to deliver vaccine "as soon as possible".


          At GlaxoSmithKline PLC, spokesman Stephen Rea said the company was already working with a key ingredient of the swine flu vaccine to see how quickly doses could be produced. Other major pharmaceuticals like Sanofi Pasteur have also been working on a swine flu vaccine since WHO gave them a "seed stock" of the virus last month created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

          Rea said it could take up to six months before large amounts of a swine flu vaccine are available. At the moment, GlaxoSmithKline is still making regular flu vaccine, which it expects to be completed by July.

          After that, Rea said GlaxoSMithKline could speed up its swine flu vaccine production if a pandemic is declared. Once that announcement is made, the company would be obliged to fulfill contracts it signed with countries including Britain, Belgium and France, promising to provide a pandemic vaccine as soon as possible.

          If a global outbreak is announced, countries would likely activate their own pandemic preparedness plans if they haven't already. That could mean devoting more money to health services or imposing measures like quarantines, school closures, travel bans and trade restrictions ? some of which WHO opposes.
          WHO gets ready

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

            hat tip Siegfried X -

            WHO gets ready declare a swine flu pandemic


            <cite class="vcard"> By MARIA CHENG AND FRANK JORDANS, Associated Press Writers Maria Cheng And Frank Jordans, Associated Press Writers </cite> ? <abbr title="2009-06-10T13:46:54-0700" class="timedate">Wed Jun 10, 4:46 pm ET

            </abbr>
            <!-- end .byline --> GENEVA ? The World Health Organization is gearing up to declare a swine flu pandemic, a move that could trigger both the large-scale production of vaccines and questions about why the step was delayed for weeks as the virus continued to spread.


            On Wednesday, WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan quizzed eight countries with large swine flu outbreaks to see if a pandemic, or global epidemic, should be declared. After Chan's teleconference, the agency announced that an emergency meeting with its flu experts would be held Thursday.
            Since swine flu first emerged in Mexico and the United States in April, it has spread to 74 countries around the globe. On Wednesday, WHO reported 27,737 cases including 141 deaths. Most cases are mild and require no treatment.


            The world is in phase 5 of WHO's pandemic alert scale, meaning a global outbreak is imminent. Moving to phase 6, the highest level, means a pandemic has begun. If that declaration is made, it will push drugmakers to fast-track production of a swine flu vaccine.


            Chan says she personally believes that a pandemic is under way, but was seeking clear proof that swine flu is spreading rapidly from person to person outside the Americas before declaring a global epidemic.
            "Once I get indisputable evidence I will make the announcement," she told reporters Tuesday.


            It would be the first flu pandemic in 41 years, since the Hong Kong flu of 1968.


            At GlaxoSmithKline PLC, spokesman Stephen Rea said the company was already working with a key ingredient of the swine flu vaccine to see how quickly doses could be produced. Other major pharmaceuticals like Sanofi Pasteur have also been working on a swine flu vaccine since WHO gave them a "seed stock" of the virus last month created by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


            Rea said it could take up to six months before large amounts of a swine flu vaccine are available. At the moment, GlaxoSmithKline is still making regular flu vaccine, which it expects to be completed by July.


            After that, Rea said GlaxoSMithKline could speed up its swine flu vaccine production if a pandemic is declared. Once that announcement is made, the company would be obliged to fulfill contracts it signed with countries including Britain, Belgium and France, promising to provide a pandemic vaccine as soon as possible.


            If a global outbreak is announced, countries would likely activate their own pandemic preparedness plans if they haven't already. That could mean devoting more money to health services or imposing measures like quarantines, school closures, travel bans and trade restrictions ? some of which WHO opposes.


            According to WHO's own pandemic criteria, a global outbreak means a new flu virus is spreading in at least two world regions.


            With thousands of cases in North America and hundreds in Japan, Australia and Europe, many experts say that threshold has already been reached, but the U.N. agency has held off on making the pandemic call for political reasons.


            "If you look at the science, we were at phase 6 weeks ago," said Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota who has advised the U.S. government on pandemic preparations.


            "What's happening right now is not about public health surveillance and science," he told The Associated Press in an interview Wednesday. "It's about politics and risk communication."


            Osterholm said WHO's delayed decision has cost the agency credibility.
            "As soon as you try to incorporate risk messaging into science, you are on a slippery slope," he said. "WHO has exacerbated the issue by dancing around it."


            In May, several countries urged WHO not to declare a pandemic, fearing it would spark mass panic. The agency appeared to cave into the requests, saying it would rewrite its definition of a global outbreak so that it wouldn't have to declare one right away for swine flu.


            But WHO officials have been concerned in recent days after seeing media reports and health experts discussing more swine flu cases than were being reported by the countries themselves.


            In one of the most glaring examples, Britain rushed to report another 75 infections Wednesday, for a total of 750 cases, after some outside health officials said the country was not looking very hard for swine flu.


            Britain's Health Protection Agency insists the virus is not spreading in communities. But three Greek students recently returned home after catching swine flu in the U.K., proof the virus is spreading more widely than British authorities admit. Two of the cases were documented in the journal of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.


            WHO said announcing a pandemic would not mean the situation was worsening, since no mutations have been detected in the virus to show it is getting more deadly.


            One flu expert said WHO's pandemic declaration would mean little in terms of how countries are responding to the outbreak.


            "The writing has been on the wall for weeks," said Chris Smith, a flu virologist at Cambridge University, adding he didn't know why WHO had waited so long to declare a pandemic. "WHO probably doesn't want people to panic, but the virus is now unstoppable."

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

              ...
              One flu expert said WHO's pandemic declaration would mean little in terms of how countries are responding to the outbreak.
              I hope that the countries will not follow the above predictions,
              because than it would be realy outrageous ...


              "The writing has been on the wall for weeks," said Chris Smith, a flu virologist at Cambridge University, adding he didn't know why WHO had waited so long to declare a pandemic. "WHO probably doesn't want people to panic, but the virus is now unstoppable."
              NOW UNSTOPPABLE - "Thank you" folks,
              especialy to the business travel/touristic worldwide sectors, to advocate no early worldwide plain quarantines.
              Cope now with the income lowerings ...
              (I must said that another time instead of singing The Rol. "Satisfaction")

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                Swine Flu Nations Briefed in Preparation for WHO Pandemic Call


                By Nathan Gill and Jason Gale


                June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Leaders of six swine flu-infected countries have been briefed by the World Health Organization in preparation for a “probable change” in the agency’s level of pandemic alert, Chile’s health ministry said.


                Officials in Australia, Chile, Japan, Mexico, the U.K. and the U.S. were asked for information on cases and measures taken to mitigate the disease, known as H1N1, before the WHO moves to the top of its six-stage pandemic warning scale, Chile’s Health Minister Alvaro Erazo said in a statement yesterday.


                The WHO will declare the first flu pandemic in 41 years sometime in the next 10 days, three people familiar with its plans said June 2. Margaret Chan, the agency’s director-general, is trying to navigate a delicate path between raising alarm about a virus that in most cases causes little more than a fever and a cough, and underestimating a bug that could kill millions.


                “This is to date a less-severe illness than had been planned for,” Australia’s Health Minister Nicola Roxon told reporters in Melbourne today.


                “This is presenting somewhat of a challenge to the health communities and public health officials around the world because much of the pandemic planning was done on the assumption that the disease would have more virulence.”



                An emergency committee of experts advising the Geneva-based agency will discuss the current swine flu threat at a meeting starting at noon Geneva time today, spokesman Dick Thompson said by telephone.


                “WHO will be discussing their alert level,” Roxon said. Chan discussed late yesterday the swine flu situation with government leaders in Australia, the country with the most reported cases outside the Americas, she said.


                Beyond Prevention


                Australia has 1,275 confirmed cases, with Victoria the worst-hit state with 1,011 infections, she said. The southeastern state upgraded its response to the outbreak earlier this month, acknowledging the spread of the virus is beyond prevention.


                “Most of the cases in Australia have still been fairly mild, but the virus is not harmless,” Roxon said. Since last month, 25 people have had to be hospitalized, including four who are being treated in an intensive care ward in Victoria, she said.


                Six schools and one childcare center in Australia have been closed to help stem transmission, Roxon said, adding that “school-age children seem to be the super-spreaders.”


                Hong Kong Schools


                Hong Kong suspended classes at all primary schools, kindergartens and childcare centers for 14 days from tomorrow because of swine flu, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said today.


                The city will monitor developments closely and residents shouldn’t worry about the spread of the disease, he said in a televised press conference.


                Those who have been hospitalized in Australia have generally had other pre-existing medical conditions such as morbid obesity or chronic respiratory disease, Roxon said. Almost 28,000 cases of swine flu have been confirmed worldwide, including 141 deaths.


                “As this becomes more widespread across the world, not just in Australia, we will see people who have negative outcomes from this flu,” Roxon said. “Any type of flu can be dangerous if not treated properly.”


                Chile, the country with the most infections outside North America, had 1,694 cases of swine flu as of June 9, up from 890 reported on June 5, the ministry said.


                Two people have died from the disease in the country, where the number of cases has jumped fourfold since the weekend as officials began including cases reported by private clinics.


                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                  Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                  Swine Flu Nations Briefed in Preparation for WHO Pandemic Call
                  By Nathan Gill and Jason Gale
                  ...
                  Roxon said, adding that ?school-age children seem to be the super-spreaders.?
                  ...
                  _____

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                    WHO likely to declare swine flu pandemic


                    1 hour ago


                    GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization held an emergency swine flu meeting Thursday and was likely to declare the first flu pandemic in 41 years as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.


                    Health officials from Scotland, Indonesia and Thailand said the agency would declare a swine flu pandemic — a global epidemic — on Thursday after a teleconference with leading flu experts. Officials at U.N. missions in Geneva also said they expected the imminent announcement of a pandemic.


                    WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said only that the emergency meeting began at noon (1000 GMT, 6 a.m. EDT) in Geneva and WHO member nations would then be informed of the result.



                    "It is likely in light of sustained community transmission in countries outside of North America — most notably in Australia — that level 6 will be declared," Scotland's Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon told Scottish lawmakers, adding it would be Thursday.


                    Indonesian health minister Siti Fadilah Supari said she had been notified by WHO that "today will be declared to be phase 6."



                    Phase 6 is WHO's highest alert level and means that a swine flu pandemic is under way. The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.


                    Since swine flu first emerged in Mexico and the United States in April, it has spread to 74 countries around the globe. On Wednesday, WHO reported 27,737 cases including 141 deaths. Most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries.


                    The long-awaited pandemic announcement is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money to containing the virus.


                    In May, several countries urged WHO not to declare a pandemic, fearing it would spark mass panic.


                    Panic has already gripped Argentina, where so many people worried about swine flu flooded into hospitals this week that emergency health services have collapsed. Last month, a bus arriving in Argentina from Chile was stoned by people who thought a passenger on it had swine flu. Chile has the most swine flu cases in South America.


                    In Hong Kong, the government on Thursday ordered all kindergartens and primary schools closed for two weeks after a dozen students tested positive for swine flu.


                    In Australia, swine flu cases jumped to more than 1,000 on Monday and reached 1,260 by late Wednesday.


                    WHO says its pandemic announcement would not mean the situation was worsening, since no mutations have been detected in the virus to show it is getting more deadly.


                    In Edinburgh, Sturgeon told lawmakers that a WHO announcement means countries should immediately activate their pandemic plans.


                    "A move to level 6 is not a verdict on the severity of the virus," she said. "It simply means that the extent of global spread now fulfills the definition of a pandemic."


                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                      MSNBC has announce that the will carry the news conference live at noon EST.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                        hat tip Senior Moderator Fla Medic -
                        A (New) Pandemic Primer



                        # 3320
                        Six week and nearly 300 essays ago - when the Swine Flu story was just hitting the news wires - I put together a primer on pandemics for first-time visitors to Flublogia (our little corner of the Internet that specializes in influenza) .

                        Today, with the declaration of a pandemic apparently imminent, I?ve updated that piece to include some of the information we?ve learned about the H1N1 swine flu virus over the past 6 weeks, and am running it again.




                        The HHS rates Pandemics like Hurricanes. Category 1-5

                        The 1918 Spanish Flu was a CAT 5 Pandemic.


                        While my regular readers are familiar with the basics of pandemics, it is probably a good time for a review.

                        Don?t worry, I?ll be gentle.

                        First, you need to know that scientists have been expecting another pandemic (global spread of a novel virus) to come around for years.

                        Influenza viruses, you see, are notorious for being unstable.

                        They mutate constantly, which is why we need a new flu shot every year. The changes from year to year are often minor, but even a tiny antigenic shift or drift in the virus can render your last flu shot useless.

                        Every once in awhile, we see a major change in an influenza virus. It can jump species to humans (as we believed happened in 1918), or it can acquire genetic material (reassortment) from another flu virus and create a new hybrid.



                        Fig. Birds, humans, and Pigs are all susceptible to Influenza

                        In either event, you can end up with a new (novel) virus to which humans have little or no immunity.

                        If the virus is also easily transmissible, and it produces illness in humans, you have the ingredients for a pandemic.

                        The term `pandemic? describes the geographic spread of a novel virus, not the severity.

                        Roughly every 30 to 40 years for at least the past 3 centuries the world has seen an influenza pandemic. Usually these pandemics are mild or moderate, but on rare occasions they can be horrific.

                        The last true pandemic was in 1968, and the culprit was the H3N2 Hong Kong Flu.

                        As pandemics go, it was pretty mild. It probably only killed a million people or so, and perhaps 30,000 in the US.

                        Before that, you only had to go back 11 years, to 1957 and the H2N2 Asian Flu. A more lethal pandemic than 1968, the Asian Flu killed between 2 and 4 million people worldwide, and nearly 70,000 Americans.


                        The Granddaddy of flu pandemics occurred in 1918, and that was the H1N1 Spanish flu. Somewhere between 50 and 75 million people are estimated to have died over an 18 month period. The United States saw about 675,000 deaths from this flu.

                        We?ve also had `close calls?, such as the Swine Flu Scare of 1976, the Liverpool Flu of 1951, and the pseudo-pandemic of 1947.


                        In 1977, the H1N1 virus returned after an absence of 20 years, possibly due to an accidental release from a laboratory in the former Soviet Union.
                        It is also likely that we?ve been close to a pandemic other times, and simply were oblivious to the fact.
                        For the past 10 years we?ve been watching the H5N1 `Bird Flu Virus? as it has moved out of Central China, to the Middle East, Indonesia, and parts of Europe.

                        The H5N1 virus has `pandemic potential?, but luckily hasn?t acquired the ability to spread from person to person easily.

                        You should know that despite the fact that the press has lost interest in it, the Bird Flu threat has not gone away, and the emergence of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic does not eliminate H5N1 as a threat.

                        The novel H1N1 `swine? flu virus that has unexpectedly thrust us towards a pandemic is a distant relative of the seasonal H1N1 virus that has been in circulation ? off and on ? since at least 1918.

                        It has picked up genetic material from hosts (pigs) over the years (including some avian genes), that makes it unique enough that most humans have little or no immunity to it.
                        The good news (at least so far) is that this virus doesn?t appear to have the virulence (severity) that some pandemic strains have demonstrated in the past.
                        None of this is to suggest that this virus is benign. It isn?t. It is fully capable of producing serious, even fatal, illness in some small percentage of its victims.

                        For now, the WHO is calling this virus `moderate? ? not mild.

                        Early studies have suggested that it may be roughly equivalent to the 1957 `Asian Flu? in virulence, but it is probably too soon to say with any certainty.
                        And the virulence of any influenza virus can change over time. The flu that we see this summer, or even this fall, may not be the same flu we see next winter or the following year.
                        And something else you should know; a pandemic is not a short-term event, like a hurricane or a flood. They can last for months ? even a year or longer.

                        This is something we are likely to be dealing with in 2010 as well.




                        In late April, in response to the emergence of the novel H1N1 virus, the WHO began raising the pandemic alert level ? from Phase 3 ? where it has sat for several years, to Phase 4 and then to Phase 5.
                        It is anticipated that the WHO will declare a Level 6 Pandemic Phase later today. If that happens, it is simply official recognition of what has been going on for several weeks; the global spread of this novel virus.
                        We don?t know right now how seriously this pandemic will affect our society, our healthcare delivery system, and our economy. The impact could range from minor to severe ? and since the virus could mutate, the effects could change over time.
                        It is unlikely that the vast majority of Americans will see a vaccine before 2010, meaning most of us will have to go through this winter without the protection of a H1N1 flu shot.
                        Certain high risk individuals, either due to their profession or due to falling into a medical high risk group, may see a vaccine late in the fall.

                        The HHS wants you, and your business, and your community to take this pandemic threat seriously. And that means being proactive, and taking steps now to prepare for this pandemic.



                        If you have not done so, go to Ready.gov. Get A Kit, Make A Plan, and Be Informed.



                        You should also visit pandemicflu.gov, and read and follow the advice provided on their Plan and Prepare page.

                        A pandemic may bring societal disruptions, such as prolonged school closures in the fall. You need to be figuring out now how you will handle it if your child is forced to stay home for weeks at a time.

                        You may also find that your regular employment is affected by a pandemic. There may be supply chain interruptions, personnel shortages, and possibly even some public health ordinances that interfere with your ability to work ? at least temporarily.

                        And of course, during a pandemic there is a strong likelihood that you could contract the virus. For most people, this will simply mean spending a miserable week or two at home. The vast majority of people will recover without incident.
                        But some people, particularly those at higher risk, may experience serious, even life threatening illness.
                        You need to be prepared to care for yourself, and your loved ones, in your home. Dr. Grattan Woodson's Home Treatment of Influenza is as good a reference for the treatment of influenza as you are likely to find, and it?s free.

                        Hospitals and clinics are likely to be overrun with flu cases during a pandemic wave, and medical care will probably be difficult to obtain ? even in developed countries.

                        Lastly, you need to be thinking about how you can help your neighborhood, and greater community, get through a crisis.

                        It can be something as simple as volunteering to be a `flu buddy? for a neighbor or friend ? being willing to fetch medicines, food, or render medical assistance in the event that they are unable to help themselves.

                        If you are able, you might consider volunteering with the Red Cross or, CERT, or the Medical Reserve Corps. There will also probably be opportunities to help with your local school, church, or hospital.
                        The important thing is that we react ? not overreact ? to this crisis.
                        If we retreat into our homes, refuse to work, or are afraid to help our neighbors and community we will only compound the effects of a pandemic.

                        And we risk putting a stake through the heart of an already staggering economy.

                        The pandemic of 2009 will make the third pandemic in my lifetime. It probably won?t be my last.

                        As Michael Leavitt, former Secretary of the HHS liked to say, ?Pandemics happen.?

                        Now it?s our task to deal with it.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                          According to the Japanese Broadcasting Corporation (NHK), Dr. Chan is expected to have a press conference in less than three hours - about 12:00pm EST. Stay tuned!

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                            [More of the same, below. Note David Heymann now at Britain's Health Protection Agency - I didn't know that (I'm surprised). Reporter on this story is Stephanie Nebehay - if I remember correctly, she's usually reliable in her reporting. Emphasis in bold is mine]

                            WHO set to declare first flu pandemic since 1968

                            Thu Jun 11, 2009 8:47am EDT

                            By Stephanie Nebehay

                            GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization was poised on Thursday to declare that the new H1N1 virus has caused the first influenza pandemic in more than 40 years, health sources said on Thursday.

                            The move will trigger heightened health measures in the WHO's 193 member states as authorities brace for the worldwide spread of the virus that has so far caused mainly mild illness.

                            WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan was to hold a news conference on the outbreak at 1600 GMT (12:00 p.m. EDT). Flu experts advising Chan, who met earlier on Thursday, were expected to recommend moving to the top phase 6 on the WHO's six-point scale, the sources said.

                            That would reflect the fact that the disease, widely known as swine flu, was spreading geographically, but not necessarily indicate how virulent it is.

                            "Phase 6, if we call a phase 6, doesn't mean anything concerning severity, it is concerning geographic spread ... Pandemic means global, but it doesn't have any connotation of severity or mildness," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said.

                            "In fact, what we are seeing with this virus so far is overwhelmingly to date mild disease. So we would think that this event is really a moderate event for the time being, because the numbers are high but the disease is overwhelmingly mild," he told Reuters Television before the talks.

                            David Heymann, a former top WHO official now chairing Britain's Health Protection Agency, said that countries had tried to contain the virus through measures including school closures during the current phase 5. This has extended the precious time needed to prepare for a full-blown pandemic.

                            "During phase 5, the government and people in the U.K. have had the time to prepare for a pandemic -- this has hopefully decreased any surprise and concern that might be associated with a WHO announcement of phase 6, if one is made," he told Reuters.

                            As it spreads in humans, science cannot predict what course the virus will take, the disease it causes and the age groups infected, Heymann said. "The severity of that disease, the effectiveness of antiviral drugs and the stability of the virus must all be watched closely," he added.

                            A pandemic could cause enormous disruption to business as workers stay home because they are sick or to look after family members and authorities restrict gatherings of large numbers of people or movement of people or goods.

                            World markets shrugged off the possibility of a pandemic, as investors focused on possible global economic recovery.

                            AUSTRALIA LIKELY TRIGGER

                            Widespread transmission of the virus in Victoria, Australia, signaling that it is entrenched in another region besides North America, is likely to be the trigger for moving to phase 6.

                            Five people have been admitted to intensive care in Australia and more than 1,000 cases confirmed following widespread testing in the state.

                            "We have tested 5,500 people in the last two weeks, that is more people than we test in our whole influenza season," said Victorian state premier John Brumby.

                            One health source, who declined to be named, said the experts were also expected to recommend finishing production currently under way of seasonal flu vaccine for the northern hemisphere next winter.

                            "They might say finish seasonal vaccine and say begin pandemic vaccine as soon as it is feasible," he said.

                            Drugmakers have obtained the new influenza A (H1N1) seed virus in the past two weeks, enabling them to begin the production process by growing the virus in eggs.

                            Company officials said on Wednesday that they were on track to have a vaccine against the new strain ready for the northern hemisphere autumn.

                            Seasonal flu each year kills up to half a million people, mainly elderly, and causes severe illness in millions, so a premature switch in vaccine production to cope with the new strain could put many people at risk.

                            The new strain can be treated by antiviral drugs oseltamivir, the generic name of Roche Holding's Tamiflu tablets, and Relenza, a spray made by GlaxoSmithKline.

                            The strain, which emerged in April in Mexico and the United States, has spread widely in nations including Australia, Britain, Chile and Japan.

                            Authorities in Germany have confirmed 27 cases of H1N1 at a school in the industrial Rhineland city of Duesseldorf, the most concentrated outbreak of the virus so far in Europe's biggest economy.

                            There have been 27,737 infections reported in 74 countries to date, including 141 deaths, according to the WHO's latest tally of laboratory confirmed cases, but the real number of people with the disease is likely to run into at least hundreds of thousands, as mild cases may not have been detected.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                              WHO will announce phase 6 at 1600 GMT, noon EDT

                              WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said only that the emergency meeting began at noon in Geneva and WHO member nations would be informed of the result. WHO Director-General Margaret Chan was holding a press conference at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT, noon EDT).

                              "It is likely in light of sustained community transmission in countries outside of North America ? most notably in Australia ? that level 6 will be declared," Scotland's Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon told Scottish lawmakers, adding it would be Thursday.

                              Indonesian health minister Siti Fadilah Supari said she had been notified by WHO that "today will be declared to be phase 6."

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: WHO Moving to Phase 6 Due to Novel H1N1 Spread

                                Source: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...QsMXAD98OGQC00

                                EU APNewsAlert

                                9 minutes ago

                                GENEVA (AP) ? The World Health Organization tells members it's raising the swine flu alert to highest level.

                                Comment

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