Announcement

**Chuck** · July 10, 2009, 01:55 PM

Alarm as swine flu becomes dominant

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/swine-flu/2584259/Alarm-as-swine-flu-becomes-dominant

Swine flu, which has killed at least six people so far, is now the dominant strain in New Zealand, scientists say.

Alarm as swine flu becomes dominant
By RUTH HILL - The Dominion Post
Last updated 05:00 11/07/2009

Swine flu which has killed at least six people so far is now the dominant strain in New Zealand, scientists say.

Environmental Science and Research virologist Sue Huang, head of the national influenza centre in Upper Hutt, said the new influenza A H1N1 virus was the most contagious bug she had seen.

"The speed at which it has replaced seasonal influenza as the predominant strain just within the last week is incredible ... it's quite alarming."

ESR's latest surveillance report for the week ending Sunday shows swine flu accounted for about 75 per cent of all confirmed flu cases nationwide double the percentage of the week before. Wellington, Taupo and Rotorua regions were hardest hit. GP clinics are under pressure, with more than three times as many patients with influenza-like illnesses as at the same time last year.

She said it was impossible to predict exactly when the pandemic would peak but the fact the northern hemisphere had not even started its seasonal flu season yet suggested the virus could persist for some time.

Fortunately, it had not yet mutated and was not yet resistant to the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

"In all the cases where people have become seriously ill, it seems to be related to the individual rather than the virus."

Internationally, there have been three cases of Tamiflu-resistant swine flu in Denmark, Japan and Hong Kong.

GPs have been given the go-ahead to make phone assessments of patients who suspect they may have swine flu, and provide a written medical certificate for someone else to collect on their behalf.

A Massey University scientist who has been researching the spread and virulence of swine flu says it was "never a benign flu".

Professor Mick Roberts, a mathematical biologist at the university's Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, said the death rate could be "about the same or slightly higher" than from ordinary seasonal influenza, which kills about 400 people a year.

Early reports of low death rates in Canada and the United States could have made people "nonchalant" about the seriousness of swine flu. Comparing the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the US, Canada and Mexico in April and May, his team found the death rates were similar.

THE STATS

*Six deaths of people confirmed to have swine flu test results are awaited on a seventh dead person.

*Total number of confirmed cases yesterday 1555, up from 1431 the day before.

*As of last Sunday, 162 people had been admitted to hospital, 29 with pneumonia and five with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

**gsgs** · July 10, 2009, 02:04 PM

Re: Alarm as swine flu becomes dominant

comparing with the previous years suggests a peak in ~2 weeks

Is ****** already replacing other flus or is it just spreading faster ?
Is normal flu at almost the same level as previous years ?

it is still increasing, so not replacing itself by immunity yet much,
so the same should hold for other flus (even more).

**Sally Furniss** · July 11, 2009, 01:40 AM

Re: NZ - 80% of people with flu have swine flu rather than seasonal flu.

Strength of swine flu has been underestimated - experts

The number of confirmed deaths from swine flu has risen to seven, after a Taranaki man died from the virus
Sat, 11 Jul 2009 5:41p.m.

The number of confirmed deaths from swine flu has risen to seven, with confirmation today a Taranaki man died from the virus.

The latest death comes as experts are warning we may be being too complacent about H1N1 ? it is now the dominant strain affecting 75 percent of all flu patients.

If you are not one of the 1,500 people currently sick with swine flu, chances are you are sick of hearing about it ? but experts say now is not the time to be complacent.

Virologist Sue Huang says in the last week, swine flu has become the dominant strain.

?It has jumped from around 15, 20 percent three weeks ago, now it is around 78 percent,? she says.

New research shows we may have been underestimating the strength of swine flu, and that approximately as many people are dying from it in countries like Canada and the United States as were in the first flush in Mexico.

Mathematical Biologist Professor Mick Roberts has been mathematically tracking the virus and says it is too early to say exactly how deadly this strain is.

?Flu has a nasty habit of mutating and changing, therefore we just have to wait and see,? he says.

The spike in cases has seen hospitals implementing new measures to try and manage the epidemic.

At Auckland?s Middlemore Hospital they are restricting the number of visitors per patient to two, in the hope of reducing the risk of the virus being brought into the hospital.

They are restricting ? where possible ? the entry of children under five.
?The issue with kids under five is that unlike adults they are not so good at blowing their nose and washing their hands,? says Chief Medical Officer Don Mackey.

?So they?re actually quite potent carriers of the flu around the place.?
Middlemore is the first hospital to implement these measures, but 3 News understand other Hospitals have similar plans, which could be in place as early as next week.

'Fight me,' screamed Kiwi swine flu patient

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/2585731/Swine-flu-death-toll-reaches-7

Indonesian security guards chased and subdued a New Zealand tourist, Richard Lochner, 40, who tried to escape from isolation at a Bali hospital, where he had gone with suspected swine flu.

**gsgs** · July 11, 2009, 03:19 AM

Re: NZ - 80% of people with flu have swine flu rather than seasonal flu.

Early reports of low death rates in Canada and the United States could have made people "nonchalant" about the seriousness of swine flu. Comparing the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the US, Canada and Mexico in April and May, his team found the death rates were similar.

> New research shows we may have been underestimating the strength of swine flu,

where is that research ? Presumably not been published yet.
I need no research to conclude that we "may" have been underestimating (or overestimating)
the strength of whatevername flu. However most researchers didn't estimate the strength
at all, so there are now not running into danger of having misestimating it.

> and that approximately as many people are dying from it in countries like Canada and
> the United States as were in the first flush in Mexico.

ahh, so how many people had been infected in the first flush in Mexico ?
Millions ?
The best example which we have is New York. They estimated 500000 infected
(they really should do a new survey on this and serology - so much secrecy in NYC recently)
and ~1000 hospitalizations and ~50 dead. Deaths from P+I in NYC don't show a significant
increase nor do total deaths.

published each week in MMWR (last page)

Access Denied

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5822.pdf

old weeks available

weekly deaths from pneumonia and influenza in New York City
weeks 17,2008 - 22,2009:

55,57,43,46,52,39,48,31,41,32,26,46,41,41,32,43,44 ,31,45,32,36,33,27,31,30,31,32,40,43,39,37,38,52,
42,25,??,51,63,52,60,52,54,53,47,55,43,46,49,45,61 ,45,33,34,32,44,23,51,30,42

average:42.5 per week

weeks 17-22,2009: 222 (37 per week)
weeks 17-22,2008: 292 (48.7 per week)

70 fewer deaths this year than in the same period last year.

~250 excess deaths from seasonality in NYC in 2008/9

15 weeks with most deaths : 53/2008-14/2009 = 776 (51.7 per week)
15 weeks with fewest deaths: 29/2008-43/2008 = 529 (35.3 per week)

mmwr2 , deaths in USA week 15,2009 - 26,2009

Access Denied

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5824.pdf

issue,all_ages,>=65,45-64,25-44,1-24,<1,P+I
122_5815,12034,7897,2800,794,270,267,820
122_5816,11470,7647,2664,685,236,232,821
122_5817,11453,7593,2649,677,275,250,799
122_5818,11303,7444,2620,710,263,255,810
122_5819,11277,7432,2685,682,253,219,751
122_5820,11268,7319,2713,687,272,268,751
122_5821,9797,6507,2268,606,217,195,619
122_5822,10821,7053,2601,699,244,223,697
122_5823,11126,7274,2636,719,245,246,773
122_5824,10987,7119,2582,737,288,255,732
122_5825,10163,6645,2393,665,237,220,663
122_5826,8692,5587,2146,532,240,183,571

NYC_5815,1032,710,237,51,13,19,33
NYC_5816,959,683,197,53,17,9,34
NYC_5817,1124,792,243,59,19,11,32
NYC_5818,1018,698,234,62,11,11,44
NYC_5819,822,577,189,39,6,11,23
NYC_5820,1128,790,258,49,14,16,51
NYC_5821,914,627,204,57,16,10,30
NYC_5822,970,652,242,51,16,9,42
NYC_5823,818,576,170,53,14,5,29
NYC_5824,1142,771,264,78,15,13,46
NYC_5825,805,565,168,48,12,12,31
NYC_5826,753,501,191,43,7,11,34

Announcement

NZ - 80% of people with flu have swine flu rather than seasonal flu.

NZ - 80% of people with flu have swine flu rather than seasonal flu.

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