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China - Increasing Incidence of Infectious Diseases - an Insurance Industry Analysis
Have taken place in China in recent years a number of major infectious diseases, such as the 2003 atypical pneumonia (SARS), 2005 to date of highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu.
虽然由这些疾病直接引发死亡的人数不足千人，但造成了巨大的社会影响和经济损失，甚至一度造成部分经济社会 活动的停滞。
Although these diseases directly caused by the insufficient number of the death of thousands of people, but created a huge social impact and economic losses, and even once caused some stagnation in economic and social activities. 鉴于传染病风险水平不断上升，且多数传染病的应对并无足够经验可循，有必要加强研究传染病风险对寿险经营的 影响。
In view of the rising level of risk of infectious diseases, and the majority of infectious diseases should not have sufficient experience to follow, there is need to strengthen the study of infectious diseases, the impact of risk on life insurance business. 一、传染病巨灾对人口死亡率、疾病率的影响
1, infectious disease catastrophe on the population mortality, disease, rate of （一）历史上的重大传染病
(A) the history of the major infectious diseases 据维基百科统计，世界历史上发生过14次重大的传染病流行。
According to the Wikipedia statistics, world history occurred 14 times a major pandemic in Cameroon. 其中最严重的黑死病在全世界造成了2500万人死亡，占中世纪欧洲全部人口的三分之一。
One of the most serious plague in the world caused 25 million deaths, accounting for one third of the entire population of medieval Europe. 历史上持续时间最长的大规模传染病是1816年爆发的霍乱，在百余年时间里，它蔓延到了全球所有角落，形成 了覆盖全球并往复循环的传染链。
The longest history of large-scale infectious disease outbreak of cholera in 1816, in the hundred years, it spread to all corners of the world, forming a global coverage and the cyclical nature of the transmission chain. 1918年2月爆发的西班牙流感则迅速演变为全球大流感，至1919年1月，感染了超过10亿人，死亡人数 在2000万至4000万之间。
February 1918 outbreak of Spanish flu is rapidly evolving as the global pandemics of influenza, to January 1919, more than 10 million people infected, the death toll at between 20 million to 40 million. 因此次流感而死亡的绝大多数人为15至35岁的青壮年，99％的死者小于65岁，直接导致了疫情过后几年中 的劳动力缺乏。
Therefore, the vast majority of times people have died of influenza between 15 and 35-year-old young adults, 99% of the deceased is less than 65 years old, a direct result of the epidemic after years of labor shortage. 据统计，人类历史上造成死亡人数超过1000万的传染病达6次，死亡人数达1.3亿以上，鼠疫、天花、流感 、霍乱等是主要传染疾病。
According to statistics, the history of mankind more than 10 million deaths caused by infectious diseases up to 6 times more than the death toll reached 130 million, plague, smallpox, influenza, cholera and other major infectious diseases. （二）目前世界传染病风险状况处于第三阶段
(B) of the current risk profile of the world of infectious diseases at the third stage of 根据世界卫生组织（WHO）研究，大规模流感每30至35年爆发一次，其发展可划分为以下阶段 ：
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) study, a large-scale influenza outbreak every 30 to 35 years time, their development can be divided into the following phases: 预备期：
Probationary period: 第一阶段：未有新型流感病毒在人类族群中发现
Phase I: no new influenza virus in human populations found in 第二阶段：在动物中发现新型病毒，但未有人类案例
The second stage: the discovery of new viruses in animals, but no human cases of 警戒期：
Alert period: 第三阶段：出现人类案例，但未出现或极少数人传人案例
Phase III: the occurrence of human cases, but there was no or very few cases of human transmission 第四阶段：在一小群活动范围受局限的人群中出现人传人案例
Phase IV: the scope of activities in a small group of people affected by limited human-to-human transmission in the case of 第五阶段：在一大群活动范围受局限的人群中出现人传人案例
5th stage: In a large scope of activities subject to the limitations of human-to-human transmission cases in the crowd 瘟疫期：
Plague period: 第六阶段：爆发大流行，造成族群间广泛传播
6th stage: the outbreak of a pandemic, resulting in widespread inter-ethnic 从目前世界传染病的发生状况来看，流感传染病正处于第三阶段。
Judging from the current situation of the world's view of the occurrence of infectious diseases, the flu epidemic is in its third phase. WHO认为，大规模传染病爆发的3个条件中，出现新型传染病病毒（如高致病性H5N1型禽流感、SARS等 ）以及出现人类感染案例已经满足，但暂时还未出现迅速人际传播的能力。
WHO believes that a large-scale infectious disease outbreak three conditions, the emergence of new infectious diseases, viruses (such as the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, SARS, etc.) and the emergence of cases of human infections have been met, it has not yet appeared quickly Interpersonal Communication capacity. （三）我国传染病死亡率和病死率上升较快，风险较大
(C) China's rapid rise in infectious disease mortality and case-fatality rate, higher risk 根据卫生部统计，2001年，我国传染病发病率为每10万人188.62人，死亡率为每10万人0.29人 ，每100个病人死亡0.15人。
According to the Ministry of Health statistics, in 2001, China's incidence of infectious diseases of 188.62 people per 10 million people, mortality rate was 0.29 persons per 10 million people, 0.15 deaths per 100 people. 2003年爆发的SARS使得传染病死亡率、病死率急剧上升，到2007年，死亡率比2001年高3倍以上 ，达到了0.99/10万，病死率提高了1倍多，达0.36/100。
2003 outbreak of infectious diseases can spread SARS mortality rate, mortality rate increased sharply, by 2007, the mortality rate three times more than the 2001 high, reaching 0.99/10 million, an increase mortality more than doubled, reaching 0.36/100. 由于全球化的不断深入，人口越来越集中到城市，未来的传染病很可能流行速度更快，对经济打击更 大。
Because of the continuous deepening of globalization, the population increasingly concentrated in cities, the future of infectious diseases is likely to pop faster and deal a heavier blow on the economy. 而且，由于导致传染的病毒有越来越多的新发现病毒以及尚未识别透彻的已发现病毒，新型传染病所造成的致病率 及死亡率可能更高。
Moreover, since the transmission of the virus led to a growing number of newly discovered virus and have yet to identify a thorough discovery of the virus, a new infectious disease caused by morbidity and mortality could be higher. 虽然中国大陆现今还未爆发大规模传染病，但却面对着巨大的传染病风险。
While mainland China today has not a large-scale infectious disease outbreak, but they face a huge risk of infectious diseases. 二、对寿险公司经营影响的分析
Second, the impact on the analysis of life insurance company 据标准普尔公司的研究，全球保险业由于传染病所造成的损失可能达到150亿美元（最好状况）至2000亿美 元（最坏状况），几乎所有的保险板块都会受到影响，影响的严重性取决于传染病爆发的时间长度和 范围。
According to Standard & Poor's research, the global insurance industry due to the losses caused by infectious diseases may reach 15 billion U.S. dollars (best condition) to 200 billion U.S. dollars (worst condition), almost all of the insurance section will be affected, the severity of the impact infectious disease outbreaks depends on the length and scope. 传染病风险对寿险公司经营的影响可以大致体现在负债、资产两个方面。
The risk of infectious diseases impact on the operation of life insurance company can be broadly reflected in the liabilities and assets of two ways. （一）负债方面
(A) liabilities, 主要是死亡率、发病率激增以及增幅不稳定造成的理赔金大幅增加及新产品开发定价风险。
Mainly mortality, morbidity, and increased instability surge sharp increase in claims and new product development, pricing risk. 1、保险赔付的风险。
1, the insurance payment risks. 传染病爆发对寿险赔付带来的压力巨大。
Infectious disease outbreak on the life insurance paid enormous pressure. 对个人寿险，定期寿险比终身寿险的风险更大，期缴保费的业务比趸交业务风险大，因为定期寿险和期缴业务的风 险净额远远高于终身寿险和趸交业务。
The individual life insurance, term life insurance life insurance at greater risk than life, regular premium business to pay more than wholesale business risks are great, because the regular business of life insurance and period of payment of the net is much higher than the risk of life-long life and wholesale delivery operations. 团体业务的被保险人在地理位置、生活场所等因素的集中度较大，风险也较为集中，但由于团体业务每年续保，其 责任期间短、费率可以更新，相对于个人寿险的较长责任期间和均衡费率来说，团体业务风险程度较 低。
Business of the insured groups in geographic location, place to live and other factors, the degree of concentration greater risk is more concentrated, but business groups renewed each year, a short period of its responsibilities, rates can be updated, as opposed to the more personal life a long period of responsibility and balanced rates, the low level of business risk groups. 对健康险，医疗费用会急剧增加。
On health insurance, medical costs would increase drastically. 2、寿险新产品精算风险。
2, life insurance actuarial risks of new products. 随着SARS以及禽流感的爆发，各家保险公司竞相推出了与之相关的保险产品。
With the outbreak of SARS and avian flu, individual insurance companies compete to launch the associated insurance products. 然而SARS及H5N1型禽流感都是新生疾病，医疗专业人员还未研制出有效的抗病毒疫苗，因此精算人员也无 法对其进行精确的风险量化。
However, SARS and the H5N1 strain of bird flu is emerging diseases, health care professionals have not yet developed an effective anti-viral vaccines, so their actuarial staff can not accurately quantify the risk. 以禽流感为例，自2003年首次发现H5N1型禽流感病例以来，2003年死亡率为100％。
The avian flu as an example, since H5N1 was first found in 2003 cases of bird flu since the 2003 mortality rate was 100%. 2004年发现的46例病例的死亡率下降到70％，2005年发现的97例病例死亡率更是下降到43％ 。
In 2004 found that the mortality rate of 46 cases dropped to 70% in 2005, found 97 cases of case-fatality rate is down to 43%. 因此，许多人都预期禽流感病毒正在逐步减弱，死亡率会进一步降低。
Therefore, many people are expected to avian influenza virus is gradually weakening, the death rate would be further reduced. 然而到了2006年，116例禽流感病例的死亡率达到了69％，2007年更是增加到了70％ 以上。
However, by 2006, 116 cases of bird flu mortality rate reached 69% in 2007 is increased to over 70%. H5N1型禽流感发生至今的平均死亡率为60％。
H5N1 strain of bird flu so far, the average mortality rate was 60%. 若保险公司在2005年底，用前3年的死亡率数据开发保险产品，其死亡率必定会被估计的过于乐观，低于现今 计算的60％。
If the insurer at the end of 2005, with the first 3 years of mortality data for the development of insurance products, its mortality rate will be estimated too optimistic, down from 60% of today's computing. 新产品所收保费可能不足，特别是随着赔偿金大幅增加，经营亏损的风险加大。
Premiums collected in the new product may not be sufficient, especially with the substantial increase in compensation, increased risk of operating losses. （二）资产方面
(B) assets 主要是经济环境不景气、股市下跌所造成的寿险公司投资回报降低的间接影响。
Mainly the economic downturn of the economy, the stock market decline caused by the life insurance companies to reduce the indirect effects of ROI. 世界银行、WHO等权威机构公认，严重的全球性流行病可以造成全球经济的衰退。
The World Bank, WHO and other authorities acknowledged that serious global pandemic could cause global economic recession. 美国国会预算办公室估计，一次严重的传染性疾病给美国造成的宏观经济伤害相当于损失全国GDP 的5％。
U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that a serious infectious disease caused by macro-economic harm to the United States lost the equivalent of the national GDP of 5%. 世界银行预测给全球经济带来的衰退是全球GDP的3％。
The World Bank forecasts recession to the global economy is the world's GDP by 3%. 经济衰退的严重性及周期与传染病的严重性及周期高度相关，在经济环境不景气时传染病对经济的打 击会更大。
The severity of the economic recession and cycle and cycle with a high degree of severity of infectious diseases related to the economic downturn of the economy when the economy to combat infectious diseases, will be even greater. 以香港为例，2003年香港SARS爆发以后，酒店的入住率仅为2％，高级旅馆甚至将整层楼关闭，员工被鼓 励在无工资的条件下长期休假，来自中国大陆的游客人数下降了75％到80％，香港的零售业整体销售额下降约 一半。
In Hong Kong, since the outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong in 2003, the hotel occupancy rate was only 2%, luxury hotel or even the whole floor will be closed, employees were encouraged to pay under the conditions in the absence of a long-term leave, the number of tourists from mainland China fell by 75% to 80%, Hong Kong's retail sales fell by about half of the total. 传染病造成的恐慌情绪极大打击了民众的消费欲望，SARS期间，香港个人消费量下降幅度达80 ％。
Infectious diseases caused by panic tremendous blow to people's desire for consumption, SARS, the Hong Kong personal consumption decrease of 80%. 三、风险控制建议
Third, risk control recommendations （一）积极研究并选择风险转移的有效途径
(A) actively explore and select an effective way to risk transfer 传染病风险是一种巨灾风险，虽发生率较低，但可能造成的损失巨大。
Infectious disease risk is a catastrophic risk, although the incidence of low, but may result in huge losses. 可以考虑采取死亡巨灾再保安排和死亡巨灾债券等风险转移措施。
Death may be considered catastrophe reinsurance arrangements and the death of catastrophe bonds and risk transfer measures. 1、通过再保险转移风险。
1, through the re-insurance risk transfer. 对该类风险做巨灾再保，实现万一发生大规模传染病之后的损失封顶。
To do that type of catastrophe reinsurance risks to achieve large-scale infectious disease event after the loss of cap. 在安排再保险的过程中需认真研究再保险公司的财务承受能力、信用等级，避免极端情况下因再保险公司破产或坏 账所引发的损失。
In arranging the process of re-insurance, reinsurance companies need to carefully study the financial capacity, credit rating, avoid extreme cases, bankruptcy or a result of the reinsurers for losses arising from bad debts. 2、利用资本市场转移风险。
2, access to capital markets risk transfer. 传统的风险转移工具，如再保、共保等，都没有将该风险转移到保险行业之外。
Traditional risk transfer tools, such as reinsurance, co-insurance, etc., are not the transfer of risk to the outside of the insurance industry. 一旦灾难性的事件发生，整个保险业都有可能难以幸免，一次巨大的死亡灾害就可能导致全球的再保人丧失偿付能 力。
Once the catastrophic event occurs, the entire insurance industry could not be spared, the death of a great disaster can lead to loss of solvency of reinsurers in the world. 应当充分利用资本市场，发行死亡巨灾债券等。
Should make full use of the capital markets, issuing death of catastrophe bonds. （二）寿险公司应加强对传染病风险的识别、分析和控制
(B) life insurance companies should enhance the risk of infectious disease identification, analysis and control of 1、对现有条款是否承担传染病风险责任进行梳理、区分。
1, the existing provisions of whether to assume the responsibility to sort out the risks of infectious diseases to distinguish between. 对承担该责任的险种主动安排再保等风险控制措施。
Right to bear the responsibility for the initiative to organize insurance, reinsurance and other risk-control measures. 2、开发新产品应充分估计风险。
2, development of new products should be fully estimate the risk. 拟定条款时应当明确风险责任，考虑限制责任条款的可行性及传染病免责条款的可行性；定价时应当考虑死亡率突 增等情况，不能为了吸引客户扩大保费规模而盲目压低保费。
The risk of development of provision should be made clear responsibility, to consider limiting the liability clause of the feasibility and viability of infectious diseases Disclaimer; pricing should take into account the sudden increase in mortality rates, etc., can not be expanded in order to attract premium customers blindly down the size of the premium. 3、加强对传染病风险度量与分析。
3, to strengthen infectious disease risk measurement and analysis. 建 议以历史上大型传染病，例如1918年流感造成的死亡率增加为压力情景，做相关的情景分析，估测公司在压力 情景下可能承受的损失金额；分析产品线之间的相 互影响；分区域对传染病风险暴露、风险集中度等进行分析；逐步引入经济资本的理念，在经济资本的计算框架中 考虑传染病等死亡巨灾风险对资本的要求。
Suggested that the history of major diseases, such as influenza mortality in 1918 increased the pressure scenario, do the relevant scenario analysis, stress scenarios estimate the company's losses may have been sustained; analyze the interaction between the product lines; pm areas on the infectious disease risk exposure, risk concentration analysis, etc.; gradually introduce the concept of economic capital, in the calculation of economic capital framework to consider the death of catastrophic risk of infectious diseases such as capital requirements. 传染病风险经济资本的度量方法可以考虑基于死亡巨灾模型度量的尾部损失，或基于历史上一次压力情景计算的损 失结果。
Infectious disease risk economic capital measurement method can be considered dead cat model of measurement based on the tail of loss, or the last pressure of scenarios based on historical loss calculation results. 附表1 维基百科统计的历年大规模传染病
Schedule 1 to the Wikipedia statistics, over the years a large-scale infectious disease 时间 主流行区 别称 疾病 死亡人数
The time difference between the main epidemic diseases, said the number of deaths 公元前430年 希腊 伤寒 500万
430 BC, the Greek typhoid fever 5 million 165年－180年 罗马 安东大瘟疫 未知 500万
165 -180 Great Plague years Luoma An unknown 5 million East 165年－180年 罗马 西普里安大瘟疫 未知 500万
165 -180 Great Plague years, Luo Maxi Ciprian Unknown 5 million 541年－542年 地中海 查士丁瘟疫 鼠疫 2500万
541 -542 Mediterranean Zha Shi Ding-year plague plague 25 million 1347年－1352年 欧洲 黑死病 鼠疫 2500万
1347 -1352 Black Death plague in Europe, 25 million 1518年－1568年 墨西哥 天花、麻疹、伤寒 1700万
1518 in Mexico -1,568 smallpox, measles, typhoid fever 17 million 1556年－1560年 欧洲 流感 2500万
1556 -1560 Influenza in Europe, 25 million 1665年 英国 伦敦大瘟疫 鼠疫 6万
1665 Great Plague of London Plague 60000 1775年－1782年 北美洲 天花 13万
1775 -1,782 North American smallpox 130,000 years, 1816年－1963年 全球 霍乱
Global Cholera 1816 -1,963 1855年－1896年 亚洲 鼠疫 1000万
1855 -1,896 plague 10 million in Asia 1918年－1919年 全球 西班牙流感 流感 2000~4000万
1918 -1,919 global Spanish influenza Influenza 2000 ~ 40 million 1957年－1958年 全球 亚洲流感 流感 100万
1957 -1958 The global Asian flu influenza 1 million 1968年－1969年 全球 香港流感 流感 75万
1968 Hong Kong influenza -1,969 global influenza 750,000 附表2：中国历年传染病发病率、死亡率
Table 2: Chinese calendar year, the incidence of infectious diseases, mortality 年份 发病率 死亡率 病死率(%)
Year incidence rates of mortality, case fatality rate (%) (1/100 000) (1/100 000) 100 Patients
(1 / 100 000) (1 / 100 000) 100 Patients 1998 194.80 0.31 0.16
1998 194.80 0.31 0.16 1999 197.63 0.27 0.14
1999 197.63 0.27 0.14 2000 185.98 0.26 0.14
2000 185.98 0.26 0.14 2001 188.62 0.29 0.15
2001 188.62 0.29 0.15 2003 192.18 0.48 0.25
2003 192.18 0.48 0.25 2004 244.66 0.55 0.22
2004 244.66 0.55 0.22 2005 268.31 0.76 0.28
2005 268.31 0.76 0.28 2006 266.83 0.81 0.30
2006 266.83 0.81 0.30 2007 272.39 0.99 0.36
2007 272.39 0.99 0.36 