Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

[sharon sanders]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

The science forums at FT:

Genetic Tracking of Disease - Commentaries & Analysis

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=459

The Scientific Library

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=585


The Science Behind the Bird Flu

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=8

The History Forums at FT:

1918 Pandemic - Data, stories & history

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=552

SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY, Historical / Situational Overview

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=736

H5N1 - Historique, statistiques, chartes, r?sum?s

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=560

[sharon sanders]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

Florida1 said in reply to Crof...
I can assure you that it is the author John Barry who wrote “The Great Influenza” who is posting on FluTrackers.

Reply August 15, 2009 at 07:28 PM






Crof said...
Thanks, Florida. I've written to Barry (at "JVBarry") to seek confirmation, and an explanation of why he entered Flublogia at FluTrackers rather than respond directly to Racaniello at virology blog.

Reply August 15, 2009 at 08:42 PM


at virology blog -

<cite id="dsq-cite-14897998" class="dsq-comment-cite"> Crawford Kilian </cite> 3 hours ago I agree that Barry should respond here, and emailed him this evening to say so. I hope he turns up here with his arguments in hand.



Message -

"History is a relentless master. It has no present, only the past rushing into the future. ca

To try to hold fast is to be swept aside."

John F. Kennedy
President of the United States of America

[tropical]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

#28, MIT link pdf:


"On Friday, May 1, CDC pushed far past its own guidelines for a pandemic of the mildness that novel H1N1 had by then demonstrated, and took the extreme position that a school with a single case should close for 14 days, and that local officials should consider closing all neighboring and feeder schools.

This guidance was apparently designed to sniff out the outbreak entirely.
Recognizing the impossibility of this task, CDC reversed itself a few days later and simultaneously declared that closing schools was not effective in stopping spread."


After be divided the atom more than a half of century,
to be "impossible" (CDC) to make only 14 days of closures ... having already an winter and summer school hollidays break period every year, well,

[sharon sanders]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

I believe Barry has the last word for now since no one has responded to his comments on the referenced blog. If/when they do we will post them here.


August 16, 2009

The Racaniello-Barry debate

Readers of comments here know that last night we discussed whether the real John Barry, author of The Great Influenza, had responded on FluTrackers to Vincent Racaniello's post The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?.


I got directly in touch with Barry and found it was indeed he who'd posted. Describing himself as "technologically challenged," he said he found the forum environment more comfortable than blogs.

But others have posted both Barry's first response, and a slightly revised one, in the comments responding to Racaniello's original post.

The issues may seem recondite, even esoteric, to non-specialists. But it's a genuine debate, not just an exchange of abuse--and that quality of civil discussion is one of the things I like best about Flublogia.

Barry added that he faces an immovable deadline for another project and won't be able to return to the discussion for a couple of weeks. So, temporarily, at least, Dr. Racaniello's response will be the last word.


August 16, 2009 at 10:09 AM PST

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2009/08/the-racaniello-barry-debate.html

I believe Barry has the last word for now since no one has responded to his comments on the referenced blog. If/when they do we will post them here.

[gsgs]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

now he argues the virus was the same in wave one and two ?
(Madagaskar,2002...)

I think it did reassort in wave 2 (and wave 3)
Several examples of exceeded transmission and virulence
of influenza in history and these were almost always caused by
reassortment

[gsgs]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

see this thread about the quoted paper on cross-protection
wave1-->wave2

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=80445

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=74589

I also remember a study showing that Australian soldiers
who caught the first wave were not less likely to get infected
in wave 2 but were only half as likely to die
(link ? I can't find it now)

[Emily]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

Well, it was helpful to me to read the vigorous exchange. I hope I learned something about a challenging science. I have a copy of Mr. Barry's book on order. I've been reading a bit in the NYT's archives about the 1918 pandemic, and lost track of an article that mentioned a major public health official getting fired after the epidemic because his city fared worse than a city that took a different approach. I bet I can find that information in the book.

[gsgs]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

Barry reports about the commander of an army camp who
committed suicide because his camp did badly under his command

[gsgs]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

new paper:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19962834?itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum&ordinalpos=50

...
proposes co-circulation between the Pandemic and a 1918 seasonal (H3?) influenza virus
as the context for the increased lethality during the second wave

[tropical]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

new paper:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1...&ordinalpos=50

"co-circulation" -> without join mutation
induced more 1918 pandemic virus wave2 lethality?

Could it be?

This article predicted increased severity of this pandemic virus (to better say, of its noted 7/x already present variants) in the next period, without an pandemic 2009 virus mutation,
could it be?
maybe the article implicit an pandemic virus snatching of some co-circulating viruses qualities prior to increased severity?

___
Link excerpt:
"This article (1) presents age, geographic, and temporal variations in 1918-1919 and 2009 influenza severity, (2) presents and discusses ecologic evidence in favor of the hypothesis to influenza lethality advanced here, (3) suggests biologic mechanisms capable of explaining it, (4) retrospectively, proposes co-circulation between the Pandemic and a 1918 seasonal (H3?) influenza virus as the context for the increased lethality during the second wave of the 1918 Pandemic, and (5) predicts an increase in influenza severity in the northern hemisphere as the 2009-2010 season advances and H3 circulation increases."

[sbrooks]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

Has anyone noticed an uptick in H3 cases in testing?

As I understand it, he's suggesting a separate competitive H3 strain could
account for increased lethality?

[gsgs]

Re: Blog - The problems with Barry?s ?The Great Influenza?

but there was probably no H3 in summer,fall.

And it started at several locations simultaneously