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President of Iceland & Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

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  • #31
    Re: President of Iceland & Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

    Katla Volcano Update 21 May 2010 (Blog)



    <!--Widget Area: [Content Item] Above ~~~ --><!--Widget Area: [Content Item] Left ~~~ --><!--Widget Area: [Content Item] Right ~~~ --><!--The content itself ~~~ --><HR class=translate_hr>



    The earthquakes at the Katla volcano site appear to possibly be increasing in frequency as of this moment (time will tell however). Since May 17 there have been four earthquakes at or very near Katla, while a 5th just on the edge of the Myrdalsjokull glacier.

    Although 4 or 5 earthquakes at the volcano site in 4 days does not indicate a drastic change in pattern, the interesting notation at the moment is the fact that the two most recent earthquakes occurred within 3 hours of each other on 21 May, 2010, at depths of 5km and 13km. That in itself is an increase in occurrence. It may be an anomaly, but it justifies keeping one eye on Katla, the big sister of Eyjafjallajokull.

    What do these volcanic earthquakes tell us about what is going on at the Katla volcano?

    One type of volcanic earthquake may indicate that changes are occurring due to magma moving in to an area of the rock which changes the pressure around it. At some point, the rock will break or move. If this type of earthquake becomes frequent, and a lot of earthquakes begin occurring or swarming (Earthquake swarms are when we suddenly start seeing clusters of earthquakes in the same general area over a relatively short period of time), it may be a precursor warning that an eruption is about to happen.

    What we are seeing at Katla, in my opinion is NOT cause for immediate alarm, but it is noteworthy to observe this recent activity and to stay up to date with what is happening there.

    There is something going on beneath the ice.

    The average time between Katla eruptions since 80 BC is 52 years. The Icelandic volcano has pretty much followed this average time between eruptions

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    • #32
      Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

      <TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3 width=996 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle></TD><TD><BIG>RSOE Emergency and Disaster Information Service</BIG></B>
      Budapest, Hungary

      </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></B>

      Volcano Activity - Europe





      </TD></TR><TR><TD class=loc_hdr colSpan=4>Event summary</TD></TR><TR><TD>EDIS Number</TD><TD>VA-20100523-26227-ISL</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=line_hilite><TD>Event type</TD><TD>Volcano Activity</TD><TD>Date / time [UTC]</TD><TD>23/05/2010 - 03:42:50</TD></TR><TR><TD>Country</TD><TD>Iceland</TD><TD>Area</TD><TD>Volcano Katla</TD></TR><TR class=line_hilite><TD>County / State</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>City</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cause of event</TD><TD>Unknown</TD><TD>Log date [UTC]</TD><TD>23/05/2010 - 03:42:50</TD></TR><TR class=line_hilite><TD>Damage level</TD><TD>Not or Not data </TD><TD>Time left</TD><TD>- </TD></TR><TR><TD>Latitude:</TD><TD>N 63? 37.800</TD><TD>Longitude:</TD><TD>W 19? 3.000</TD></TR><TR class=line_hilite><TD>Number of deads:</TD><TD>Not or Not data</TD><TD>Number of injured persons:</TD><TD>Not or Not data</TD></TR><TR><TD>Number of missing persons:</TD><TD>Not or Not data</TD><TD>Number of infected persons</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>Number of evacuated persons:</TD><TD>Not or Not data</TD><TD>Population</TD><TD>No data!</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

        <TABLE cellSpacing=0 border=0><CAPTION>M&#253;rdalsj&#246;kull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours

        Earthquake table


        </CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>Date</TH><TH>Time</TH><TH>Latitude</TH><TH>Longitude</TH><TH>Depth</TH><TH>Magnitude</TH><TH>Quality</TH><TH>Location</TH></TR><TR><TD>Monday
        24.05.2010


        </TD><TD>06:09:30</TD><TD>63.627</TD><TD>-19.208</TD><TD>0.7 km</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>99.0</TD><TD>2.5 km SE of Go&#240;abunga</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




        Last edited by Pathfinder; May 24, 2010, 09:27 AM. Reason: Link

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        • #34
          Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

          <TABLE cellSpacing=0 border=0><CAPTION>Earthquake table</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>Date/</TH><TH>Time/</TH><TH>Latitude</TH><TH>Longitude/</TH><TH>Depth/</TH><TH>Magnitude/</TH><TH>Quality/</TH><TH>Location</TH></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


          Tuesday
          25.05.2010/ 03:36:51/ 63.634 -19.259 /4.8 km /0.8 /99.0 /0.8 km SW of Go?abunga


          Comment


          • #35
            Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

            <TABLE cellSpacing=0 border=0><CAPTION>Earthquake table</CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>Date</TH><TH>Time</TH><TH>Latitude</TH><TH>Longitude</TH><TH>Depth</TH><TH>Magnitude</TH><TH>Quality</TH><TH>Location</TH></TR><TR><TD>Wednesday
            26.05.2010
            </TD><TD>08:43:21</TD><TD>63.673</TD><TD>-19.128</TD><TD>2.1 km</TD><TD>0.7</TD><TD>99.0</TD><TD>7.1 km ENE of Go?abunga</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


            Comment


            • #36
              Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

              Katla Volcano In Iceland Shows Signs Of Increased Activity

              National & World - National & International News
              Wednesday, 26 May 2010 13:49
              Written by Mark Dunphy






              Fears are growing that the Katla volcano in Iceland could soon erupt after volcanic activity at the site increased by over 200% in recent days.


              Seismic readings of the volcano indicate the tremors around the area have increased substantially.

              Four earthquakes were detected near Katla during a 12-hour period on May 21st, more than at any other time since the Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruptions first occurred in March.

              Three earthquakes at the Katla Volcano were reported by the Disaster and Emergency website Hisz.rsoe.hu on Sunday evening. The tremors may have been due to ice movements within M?rdalsj?kull glacier or magma movement under the volcano.

              The last earthquake to take place at the volcano was recorded this morning.

              The eruption of the long-dormant Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano has prompted fears among some geophysicists that it might trigger an eruption at the larger and more dangerous Katla. In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallaj?kull have triggered subsequent Katla eruptions. The last large eruption at Katla was in 1918 but there have been small eruptions at Katla as recently as 1955.

              An eruption of Katla volcano has the potential to be more devastating than the current eruption of Eyjafjallajokull. Geophysicists at Iceland?s Institute of Earth Sciences say Katla would be locally and globally damaging.

              Icelandic President ?lafur Gr?msson has warned Governments around Europe that a significant eruption at the volcano is ?coming close?. He said: "We [Iceland] have prepared ... it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption".

              Live Katla webcam - Earthquake link



              Katla



              Also earlier video from CNN here:

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                If there is any member who understands these tremor graphs, it would be very much appreciated if you could give us a brief explanation. This is what the site publishes
                The graphs show average vertical movement per minute for each seismometer, in three frequency ranges (Hz).The vertical axis has the same scale for each station. The main purpose of these graphs is to monitor changes in intensity of seismic wave motion. The absolute value of the scale has no meaning. ... Earthquakes appear as spikes on the graphs.
                Here is one of the latest tremor graphs near Katla and the earthquake graph. I wonder if the green spike today is either the blue or orange dot on the earthquake graph?

                Click image for larger version

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                Click image for larger version

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                The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

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                • #38
                  Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                  Second Iceland volcano 'could erupt' in near future

                  (AFP) ? 4 hours ago

                  LONDON ? An Icelandic volcano neighbouring Eyjafjoell, whose eruptions paralysed Europe's skies last month, could come to life in the near future, according to experts.

                  "An eruption in the short term is a strong possibility," experts said, referring to Katla, which is larger and fiercer than Eyjafjoell, in a report from the University College London (UCL) institute for risk and disaster reduction.

                  The researchers also cautioned that Europe's skies were likely to be hit by further ash cloud shutdowns, following April's widespread closures and several smaller scale shutdowns since.

                  The report warned that "future moderately to highly explosive Icelandic eruptions combined with appropriate weather conditions are highly likely to cause a repeat of the recent air transport disruption."

                  The Eyjafjoell volcano began erupting on April 14, and spewed out an ash cloud that drifted over Europe and led to massive flight disruption throughout the continent for several days.

                  It caused the biggest airspace shutdown in Europe since World War II, affecting more than 100,000 flights and eight million passengers.

                  The UCL experts -- encompassing scientists, engineers and statisticians also criticised the response to the eruption.

                  "The severe disruption to European airspace in April from (the volcano's) ash clouds reflect a lack of integration between the monitoring, warning and risk management systems," said Carina Fearnley, of UCL's hazard research centre.

                  In a second report released Thursday, a team of British researchers said they had discovered a significant electrical charge in the ash plume.

                  The scientists, from the Institute of Physics, said they found that "the ash plume which hovered over Scotland carried a significant and self-renewing electric charge."

                  They warned that the charge could pose a risk to both planes and passengers.

                  "Charged particles can cause aircraft radio interference and, if introduced into aircraft cabins, charged ash may present an electrostatic hazard to occupants or aircraft systems," said the report.

                  The scientists used a specialist weather balloon to conduct research on a section of the ash cloud floating over Scotland.

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                  • #39
                    Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla




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                    • #40
                      Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                      That last section looks like a marked increase in tremor activity - can we draw any conclusions from this?

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                        There's a good blog run by geologist Dr. Erik Klemetti that might either have answers people are seeking, or you could get them answered in the comment area. It's been a really active community lately.


                        http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
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                        • #42
                          Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                          M&#253;rdalsj&#246;kull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours (Preliminary results)
                          Earthquake location 29 May 15:15 GMT



                          http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-v...myrdalsjokull/

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                            An animated timeline of the seismic activity leading up to the first eruption.
                            Liam

                            This visualization shows earthquakes leading up to and during two eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in March and April 2010. Made by http://datamarket.com

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla




                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: President of Iceland &amp; Scientists Warn about Volcano Katla

                                Thinning ice caps? impact on Icelandic volcanic activity

                                Posted 07 June 2010 by Ruth Lunn

                                The thinning of Iceland's ice caps could be influencing volcanic activity, according to new research. The study developed a model to predict the changes in pressure on magma caused by thinning ice and applied it to the recent activity of two Icelandic volcanoes. The results suggest that the effects of thinning ice may increase volcanic activity in some cases, but reduce it in others.



                                <HR>Volcanic eruptions are influenced by the build-up of pressure below the Earth's crust. Increased pressure causes the magma to become more liquefied (or melt), which can then lead to eruption. This means that events that affect the pressure can affect the activity of a volcano, such as earthquakes and nearby eruptions. For those volcanoes below glaciers or ice sheets there is another source of pressure change: the variations in the load on the Earth's surface caused by changes in ice cover.

                                At the end of the last glaciation period, Iceland had a large pulse of volcanic activity that has been linked to the disappearance of an ice sheet more than 300 km wide. Trends toward a warmer climate mean that Icelandic ice caps currently covering areas of volcanic activity have been retreating since 1890.

                                The effect on pressure depends on the extent of the ice cap retreat. A retreating ice cap with a radius of only a few kilometres will influence only the shallow parts of the volcanic system, such as the magma chambers within the crust. A retreating ice cap with a radius of tens of kilometres or more will influence conditions in deeper parts within the mantle, which lies below the crust. The study developed a model to predict both these processes.

                                Considering the impact at the deeper level, the model estimated that since 1890 a significant amount of 'additional magma' has been generated within the mantle under Iceland at a rate of 0.014 km3 per year. Considering the shallower effects on magma chambers within the crust, the model predicted that a decrease in ice pack would inhibit the rupture of certain types of magma chamber, but promote the rupture of others. For example, pressure changes are most likely to rupture spherical chambers.

                                The research applied its predictions of the effects on shallow magma chambers to two Icelandic volcanoes: Gr?msv?ten and Katla. The 2004 eruption of Gr?msv?ten was preceded by the draining of water from a nearby lake beneath a glacier. The model indicated that the removal of this water above a 10 km3 magma chamber at a 2.5 km depth could have initiated the volcanic activity, particularly if the chamber was spherical.

                                For Katla the model predicted that, in the case of spherical or long horizontal chambers, eruptions are more probable when seasonal snow cover is lowest. This appears to be consistent with the fact that the last nine major historical eruptions of Katla all occurred during the summer period. Despite these short-term effects, the model indicated that the long-term thinning of ice might actually reduce the likelihood of eruptions at Katla, although more information is needed on the properties of the different layers of the Earth to explore this further.

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