Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED - 6 of 7 CLEARED upon appeal

[Shiloh]

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/...ct-earthquake/

Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake
Published May 27, 2011
| FoxNews.com

Italian government officials have accused the country's top seismologist of manslaughter, after failing to predict a natural disaster that struck Italy in 2009, a massive devastating earthquake that killed 308 people.

A shocked spokesman for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) likened the accusations to a witch hunt.

"It has a medieval flavor to it -- like witches are being put on trial," the stunned spokesman told FoxNews.com.

Enzo Boschi, the president of Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), will face trial along with six other scientists and technicians, after failing to predict the future and the impending disaster.

Earthquakes are, of course, nearly impossible to predict, seismologists say. In fact, according to the website for the USGS, no major quake has ever been predicted successfully...

[Emily]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake

Sounds like this case is based on allegations of underestimating risk, rather than failure to predict.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencein...ys.html?ref=hp

Witness Questions Experts' Analysis in Trial of Italian Quake Scientists
by Edwin Cartlidge on 8 December 2011, 3:30 PM

[Emily]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake

http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/01...s-defence.html

Nature News Blog
Wiretap revelation could aid Italian seismologists? defence

25 Jan 2012 | 17:37 GMT | Posted by Brian Owens | Category: Earth, environment & ecology

Posted on behalf of Nicola Nosengo.
[snip]
By showing that the Civil Protection had already decided what to say before the meeting, the revelation may help the defence of the six indicted scientists. In particular Enzo Boschi, then president of the Italian Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology, has always contended that the scientists did not have a chance to make a serious risk assessment during the meeting, and that reassuring the population had been solely the Civil Protection?s decision.

Bertolaso was scheduled to appear as a witness in the trial on 8 February. By that day, he may have to appear as a defendant.

And one day later, it looks like he will be a defendant:

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencein...st.html?ref=ra

Italian Official Added to List of Defendants in Earthquake Trial
by Edwin Cartlidge on 26 January 2012, 4:19 PM

The former head of Italy's civil protection department, Guido Bertolaso, is to be investigated for manslaughter alongside seven scientists and technicians ...

[Emily]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake

Earthquake Experts Finally Testify in Their Manslaughter Trial

by Edwin Cartlidge on 31 May 2012, 6:08 PM ScienceInsider
[snip]
The main trial, meanwhile, which started in September last year, now breaks for the summer and will resume this September when the prosecution and then the defense are due to present their final arguments to the judge, who is expected to give his verdict before the end of October.

[Shiloh]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Source: http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/1988201...-quake-warning


Italian court convicts 7 for no quake warning
Posted: Oct 22, 2012 12:32 PM EDT Updated: Oct 22, 2012 1:15 PM EDT
By Associated Press

L'AQUILA, Italy -

An Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter on Monday for failing to adequately warn citizens before an earthquake struck central Italy in 2009, killing more than 300 people.

The court in L'Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years in prison. Each one is a member of the national Great Risks Commission...

[sharon sanders]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

That is incredible.

[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

From Shilo's link:

Among those convicted were some of Italy's most prominent and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts, including Enzo Boschi, former head of the national Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.
...
The defendants were accused in the indictment of giving `'inexact, incomplete and contradictory information" about whether small tremors felt by L'Aquila residents in the weeks and months before the April 6, 2009, quake should have constituted grounds for a quake warning.


Read more: http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/1988201...#ixzz2A3MmM2hJ
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USGS

The Science of Earthquakes
...
Can scientists predict earthquakes?

No, and it is unlikely they will ever be able to predict them. Scientists have tried many different ways of predicting earthquakes, but none have been successful. On any particular fault, scientists know there will be another earthquake sometime in the future, but they have no way of telling when it will happen.


Is there such a thing as earthquake weather? Can some animals or people tell when an earthquake is about to hit?

These are two questions that do not yet have definite answers. If weather does affect earthquake occurrence, or if some animals or people can tell when an earthquake is coming, we do not yet understand how it works.

[...]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/eqscience.php

[sharon sanders]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

I guess we might see a mass exodus of scientists and other experts from Italy?

[Pathfinder]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Translation Google

INGV
Press on the judgment of the trial of L'Aquila

22:10

L 'INGV conveys his regret and concern at the first-instance judgment of the trial of L'Aquila, which condemns the members of the Major Risks Committee, the deputy head of the Department of Civil Protection, the Director of the Office of Seismic Risk Civil Protection and the Director of the National Center for Earthquake pro tempore of the INGV.

Our thoughts turn once again to the earthquake victims and their relatives know that no judgment can never repay the lost affections.

But it is important to consider that the judgment sets a precedent that can significantly affect the relationship between scientists and decision-makers, not only in our country.

The conviction of L'Aquila may, in fact, jeopardize the right / duty of scientists to participate in public dialogue through communication of research results outside the scientific premises, in fear of a criminal conviction. Which scientist wants to express their opinion knowing that you can go to jail?

Italy is one of the most seismic countries in the world, where every day there are dozens of earthquakes, most of which are not perceived by the population. This seismic activity is monitored by INGV 24 24 hours, every day of the year. On the basis of historical data and the results of research carried out INGV, the Institute has helped to develop a seismic hazard map of Italy, among the most advanced in the world, which is an important tool for knowledge and prevention in the field of earthquake .

According to the international scientific literature, at present it is impossible to predict an earthquake in a deterministic manner. As a result, ask INGV indicate how, when and where the next earthquake will strike is not only useless, but also harmful because it encourages an unjustified expectations of the populations concerned by a possible seismic sequence in place.

The only work of effective mitigation of seismic risk is linked to the prevention, information and education of the population in which scientific institutions, Civil Protection and local authorities have to play in a coordinated manner, each its own role. For this reason INGV cooperates with the Department of Civil Protection and Major Risks Committee (the body Consulting Civil Protection) carrying out its activities in the field of scientific and technical information, education, prediction and prevention of various risk situations.

This is also what happened in the case of the tragic earthquake in L'Aquila, and this is what happens daily in all situations where there is risk profiles.

But the work of prevention must necessarily pass through the reduction of the vulnerability of buildings.

Now it will be very difficult to appear in public to speak seismic activity taking place in Italy, with the possibility that researchers may be sued for any omission or procured alarm.

We are particularly impressed by the judgment of L'Aquila, because it threatens to undermine one of the cornerstones of scientific research: that of freedom of investigation, of open and transparent discussion and sharing of results, factors essential for scientific progress. Order the science means leaving the field open to preachers who boast of knowing predict earthquakes, in fact giving to the contribution of leading scientists. Although it is a very hard blow, INGV will continue its research work with the utmost care and will strengthen its presence in society work of proper information and education.

http://comunicazione.ingv.it/it/9-segnalazioni/873-comunicato-sulla-sentenza-del-processo-a-l-aquila.html

[Giuseppe]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

I guess we might see a mass exodus of scientists and other experts from Italy?

I think that around this trial there is a certain amount of misinformation.


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[sharon sanders]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Are any politicians on trial for discouraging frank, and maybe dire, predictions about earthquakes in this area?

[Giuseppe]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

The text reproduced below (in Italian) has been published by the Italian daily newspaper 'Il Fatto Quotidiano' and is a copy of the deliberations taken during the risk assessment meeting (http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2012...rischi/390130/ ).

(...)

RIUNIONE COMMISSIONE GRANDI RISCHI
L?Aquila, 31 marzo 2009

Verbale

Sono presenti, per la commissione grandi rischi, Prof. Barberi (vicepresidente), Prof. Boschi (INGV), accompagnato dal Dott. Selvaggi (Responsabile CNT), Prof. Calvi (EUCENTRE), Prof. Eva (Universit? di Genova), per il Dipartimento Nazionale della Protezione Civile, il Prof. De Bernardinis (vicecapo settore tecnicooperativo), Prof. Dolce (Direttore Ufficio Rischio Sismico), l?Assessore della Protezione Civile della Regione Abruzzo, il Sindaco del Comune di L?Aquila, il Dott. Altero Leone (Responsabile della PC regionale), altri rappresentanti del DPC e della Regione.


La riunione ha inizio alle ore 18.30.


Apre i lavori il Prof. De Bernardinis che porta i saluti del Capo del Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. La riunione odierna si ? resa necessaria per esaminare la fenomenologia sismica in atto da alcuni mesi nel territorio della Provincia Aquilana, che ? culminata con la scossa di magnitudo 4.0 del 30.03.09. Alla riunione partecipano le massime autorit? scientifiche del settore sismico, in grado di fornire il quadro pi? aggiornato e affidabile di quanto sta accadendo.

Il Prof. Dolce fornisce un primo inquadramento delle problematiche da affrontare, con riferimento al quadro che emerge dalle registrazioni e valutazioni dell?INGV e della rete RAN del DPC, e dalle notizie fornite dalle Protezione civile regionale sui danneggiamenti subiti dalle costruzioni. Distribuisce un documento preparato dal DPC, nel quale sono riportate, tra l?altro, le registrazioni accelerometriche della RAN ed alcune elaborazioni.

Evidenzia come la scossa di ieri sia stata preceduta da una sequenza sismica che dura oramai da quasi sei mesi, con scosse di magnitudo mai superiore al 2.7, e seguita da una serie di scosse, la prima delle quali di magnitudo 3.5 seguita da altre di magnitudo inferiore. Evidenzia inoltre come si siano registrati picchi di accelerazioni piuttosto alti, rispetto alla magnitudo, fino a 0.14g. A queste registrazioni corrispondono per? spettri di risposta di forma stretta, con picco per periodi molto bassi, ed una durata di pochi secondi.

Prende poi la parola il Prof. Boschi, per completare il quadro conoscitivo del fenomeno. L?attivit? sismica a L?Aquila si manifesta in un?area di confine tra due grosse strutture sismogenetiche. I forti terremoti in Abruzzo hanno periodi di ritorno molto lunghi. Improbabile che ci sia a breve una scossa come quella del 1703, pur se non si pu? escludere in maniera assoluta.

Il dott. Selvaggi riporta come la sequenza in corso sia molto seguita dal Centro Terremoti, che localizza e segnala tutte le scosse di magnitudo almeno 1.4. Procede quindi ad un commento del documento dell?INGV distribuito all?inizio della riunione. L?area appare caratterizzata da un?attivit? pressoch? costante, con terremoti distribuiti su tutte le ore del giorno e della notte, e non prevalentemente in alcune ore.

Al termine dell?esposizione del quadro conoscitivo, prende la parola il Prof. Barberi, per indirizzare e condurre la discussione, specificando, innanzitutto, gli scopi della riunione:

1) fare una valutazione oggettiva degli eventi sismici in atto in relazione a quanto si possa prevedere;

2) discutere e fornire indicazioni sugli allarmi diffusi nella popolazione.

A proposito del primo punto, il Prof. Barberi evidenzia come sia estremamente difficile fare previsione temporali sull?evoluzione dei fenomeni sismici. Si pu? fare riferimento alla conoscenza storica, da cui emerge l?elevata sismicit? del territorio abruzzese. La domanda da porre agli specialisti ? se nei terremoti del passato c?? testimonianza di sequenze sismiche che precedono forti terremoti.

Il Prof. Eva spiega cha la casistica ? molto limitata, anche perch? terremoti cos? piccoli non venivano registrati nel passato. In tempi recenti non ci sono stati forti eventi, ma numerosi sciami che, per?, non hanno preceduto grossi eventi (esempio in Garfagnana). Ovviamente essendo la zona di L?Aquila sismica, non ? possibile affermare che non ci saranno terremoti.

Il Prof. Boschi spiega che, se si guarda una faglia attiva, la sismicit? ? in un certo modo sempre attiva, manifestandosi attraverso scorrimenti lenti, piccoli terremoti e, talvolta, terremoti forti. Quindi la semplice osservazione di molti piccoli terremoti non costituisce fenomeno precursore.

Guardando l?Italia nel suo complesso probabilmente c?? una logica che governa lo sviluppo dei terremoti. E ancor pi? questa logica pu? riguardare l?intero pianeta Terra. Ma questa logica non ? ancora nota e non ? perci? possibile fare previsioni. E? invece molto noto che il Comune di L?Aquila ? classificato in zona 2, e dunque ? caratterizzato da una sismicit? che richiede una particolare attenzione verso le costruzioni, che vanno rafforzate e rese capaci di resistere ai terremoti.

Il Prof. Calvi fa notare, sulla base del documento distribuito dal DPC, che le registrazioni delle scosse sono caratterizzate da forti picchi di accelerazione, ma con spostamenti spettrali molto contenuti, di pochi millimetri, e perci? difficilmente in grado di produrre danni alle strutture. C?? quindi da attendersi danni alla strutture pi? sensibili alle accelerazioni, quali quelle a comportamento fragile.

Il Dott. Selvaggi evidenzia come ci siano stati anche alcuni terremoti recenti preceduti da scosse pi? piccole alcuni giorni o settimane prima, ma ? anche vero che molte sequenze in tempi recenti non si sono poi risolte in forti terremoti.

Il Prof. Barberi conclude che non c?? nessun motivo per cui si possa dire che una sequenza di scosse di bassa magnitudo possa essere considerata precursore di un forte evento.

Riguardo al secondo punto, l?Assessore alla PC della regione chiede se si possa affermare con sicurezza che non si debba dare credito a chiunque affermi di poter fare previsioni e proponga strumenti allo scopo.

Il Prof. Barberi, riferendosi a quanto sta accadendo a L?Aquila, spiega come le misurazioni del gas Radon ai fini previsionali dei terremoti sia un problema molto vecchio e oramai a lungo studiato, senza arrivare a soluzioni utili.

Sicuramente in preparazione o in concomitanza dei fenomeni sismici ci sono fenomeni geochimici, la cui complessit? ?, per?, tale da non poter essere utilizzati come precursori. Dunque, oggi non ci sono strumenti per fare previsioni e qualunque previsione non ha fondamento scientifico. Il problema va, invece, visto nei termini generali, perch? l?unica difesa dai terremoti consiste nei rafforzare le costruzioni e migliorare la loro capacit? di resistere al terremoto. Un altro importante aspetto da curare ai fini di protezione civile ? migliorare il livello di preparazione a gestire un?emergenza sismica. Tutti i componenti della Commissione concordano con questa valutazione.

Il Prof. De Bernardinis, infine, pone la questione sul tipo e entit? del danneggiamento che terremoti di questo tipo possono procurare.

In relazione a quanto detto in precedenza dal Prof. Calvi, il Prof. Dolce evidenzia la vulnerabilit? di parti fragili non strutturali e evidenzia come sia importante, nei prossimi rilievi agli edifici scolastici, verificare la presenza di tali elementi, quali controsoffittature, camini, cornicioni in condizioni precarie.

La riunione ha termine alle ore 19.30.

(...)

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[Giuseppe]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Despite that earthquake predictions are impossible the commission stated that ''it is unlikely an event similar to the 1703 earthquake''.

So the commission made a prediction: where is the truth?

[Giuseppe]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

Are any politicians on trial for discouraging frank, and maybe dire, predictions about earthquakes in this area?

Yes, but in another trial.

Among them, the Director General of Civil Protection (part of the executive, or cabinet).

For more info: http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2012...6-anni/389935/

[sharon sanders]

Re: Italian Seismologists Charged With Manslaughter for Not Predicting 2009 Quake- CONVICTED

The truth is that they didn't know. I can find a scientist to disagree with another scientist about any topic. It is hard to understand incarcerating someone for their wrong scientific opinion. If we are to hold all scientists to all predictions and opinions than none of them will offer any opinion about anything. I wouldn't.