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Go Back   FluTrackers > Autres défis > Crise financière > Europe > Allemagne

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Old May 5th, 2012, 10:11 AM
Diane Morin's Avatar
Diane Morin Diane Morin is offline
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Default L'économie allemande ralentit à son tour

L'économie allemande ralentit à son tour


LE MONDE | 05.05.2012 à 13h40 • Mis à jour le 05.05.2012 à 15h09

Par Claire Gatinois


En novembre 2011, le parlementaire Volker Kauder (CDU, conservateur) avait un peu maladroitement affirmé : "Maintenant, l'Europe parle allemand." Sous-entendu, les pays dépensiers de l'Union monétaire se mettent au pas adoptant - enfin - la rigueur nécessaire à l'assainissement de leurs comptes publics.

Six mois plus tard, après un trimestre de croissance négative en fin d'année dernière et des indicateurs en déclin, l'Allemagne semble au contraire parler un peu plus "européen". Les politiques d'austérité et les dégâts qu'elles provoquent sur la croissance commencent, de fait, à se ressentir sur l'économie d'outre-Rhin.

Il y a notamment eu ce chiffre surprenant et décevant de 19 000 nouveaux demandeurs d'emploi enregistrés en avril. Si le taux de chômage en Allemagne, à 6,8 % de la population active, reste extrêmement enviable pour l'Europe du Sud, cet indicateur a envoyé un mauvais signal.

Et il n'est ni le seul, ni le premier. Le moral des consommateurs flanche, les exportations stagnent et le niveau d'activité industrielle a des accès de faiblesse. Mercredi 2 mai, l'indice PMI des directeurs d'achat permettant de mesurer le niveau de la production a reculé. En cause, "la demande, plus faible, des clients d'Europe du Sud", selon Markit, l'institut qui publie cette donnée.

Pour Christian Ott, économiste chez Natixis à Francfort, ce ralentissement n'est pas très étonnant. Il reflète, une fois de plus, la vulnérabilité du modèle économique allemand, focalisé sur le commerce extérieur : 40 % de ses exportations sont, rappelle-t-il, destinées aux pays de la zone euro. "Ce qui est finalement surprenant, c'est que l'Allemagne ait résisté si longtemps", estime M. Ott.

Reste à savoir s'il s'agit d'un simple trou d'air ou des prémices d'une dégradation plus profonde. Après le recul du produit intérieur brut (PIB) de 0,2 % au quatrième trimestre 2011, la plupart des experts s'attendent à une croissance zéro pour les trois premiers mois de 2012. Mais, si le PIB est négatif, même légèrement, le pays sera techniquement en récession.

Un choc pour la première économie européenne érigée, depuis le début de la crise des dettes souveraines, en modèle absolu.

/.../

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/artic...6277_3234.html
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