mortality statistics - Page 2

gsgs · #31 April 26th, 2012, 08:19 AM

http://news.google.com/newspapers?ni...g=1197,5054559
William Sanders , national heart and lung institute
prescribing drugs for high blood pressure

130000 Vietnamese refugees

John Armstrong, chief of mortality statistics at the census bureau

better medical care, better diet , better access to medical care

http://news.google.com/newspapers?ni...&pg=5334,74761

----------------------------------

just in USA, not in Canada,Europe ?

the (suddenly increased speed of) decline in deaths was seen in
deaths from multiple causes, including diabetes,bronchitis,
pneumonia, liver/gallbladder/pancreas,ischemic heart disease,
but most from stroke and hypertensive disease.
But not in cancer deaths.

We typically see this multi-decline each year in summer.
(seasonality of deaths)
But the 1974-1976 decline is profound and long-lived.

Deaths from smog, air-pollution gives a similar patter
of causes, but the effect should not have been so big,
whatever pollutant might have been reduced starting
in 1974.
Maybe a general change in diet of the elderly
or food additives ? Or sudden availability of blood-pressure
measurement for the masses ? Some health campaign ?

gsgs · #32 July 27th, 2012, 08:52 PM

Medicaid expansion in U.S. states cut death rates, Harvard study shows
http://newyork.newsday.com/news/nati...hows-1.3861942

remember how US-death rates went down so much in 2012, I posted about it.
The P+I - death ratio also went down.

Is it "Obamacare" ? Which reduces i.e.pneumonia deaths more than other deaths like cancer-deaths

was there a similar program in 1974 so to explain the 1974-1976 US-death-decline-mystery ?

gsgs · #33 September 5th, 2012, 10:30 AM

Code:

winter-deaths/(previous)summer-deaths

average 2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  country
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1.020 ,-----,-----,-----,1.012,.9998,1.041,1.007,1.041,-----,Russia
 1.054 ,1.062,1.060,1.100,1.050,1.046,1.049,1.055,1.063,1.007,Slowakia
 1.069 ,1.028,1.088,1.159,1.093,1.062,1.133,1.074,.9929,.9990,Iceland
 1.070 ,-----,-----,-----,1.079,1.056,1.067,1.078,-----,-----,Belarus
 1.074 ,1.123,1.048,1.110,1.040,1.032,1.086,1.096,1.077,1.055,Czech
 1.075 ,1.060,1.083,1.056,1.050,1.101,1.083,1.101,1.086,1.059,Finland
 1.080 ,1.087,1.062,1.137,1.071,1.059,1.067,1.102,1.076,1.067,Slowenia
 1.084 ,1.107,1.122,1.099,1.121,1.095,1.073,1.027,1.055,1.060,Estonia
 1.084 ,1.119,1.081,1.096,1.068,1.055,1.113,1.118,1.059,1.050,Poland
 1.085 ,1.101,1.116,1.108,1.080,1.100,1.036,1.081,1.059,-----,Grece
 1.089 ,1.098,1.087,1.121,1.146,1.110,1.056,1.045,1.101,1.043,Lituania
 1.089 ,1.107,1.094,1.095,1.073,1.063,1.078,1.129,1.103,1.059,Danmark
 1.090 ,1.132,1.092,1.135,1.063,1.075,1.055,1.103,1.087,1.072,Ungarn
 1.094 ,1.134,1.035,1.110,1.081,1.051,1.126,1.142,1.108,1.060,Germany
 1.094 ,1.135,1.111,1.126,1.106,1.114,1.075,1.060,1.077,1.042,Latvia
 1.095 ,1.084,1.101,1.109,1.080,1.103,1.083,1.114,1.091,----,,Norway
 1.095 ,1.103,1.074,1.114,1.103,1.054,1.131,1.118,1.100,1.062,Netherlands
 1.095 ,1.118,.9955,1.138,1.148,1.071,1.024,1.155,1.157,1.049,Luxemburg
 1.096 ,-----,-----,-----,1.109,1.083,1.098,-----,-----,-----,Ukraine
 1.104 ,1.096,1.012,1.168,1.102,1.079,1.138,1.143,1.110,1.089,France
 1.105 ,1.098,1.083,1.135,1.084,1.099,1.108,1.119,1.111,1.109,Sweden
 1.105 ,1.130,1.069,1.152,1.092,1.059,1.102,1.151,1.089,-----,Austria
 1.105 ,1.153,.8532,1.322,1.142,1.020,1.145,1.126,1.084,-----,Liechtenstein
 1.107 ,1.099,1.014,1.172,1.105,1.082,1.141,1.148,1.114,1.093,France(metrop.)
 1.109 ,1.096,1.077,1.140,1.107,1.089,1.120,1.142,1.104,-----,EFTA
 1.110 ,1.144,1.088,1.159,1.099,1.150,1.097,1.086,1.096,1.078,(Mazedonia)
 1.111 ,-----,-----,1.157,1.112,1.105,1.096,1.104,1.095,-----,Bosnia
 1.112 ,1.124,1.060,1.155,1.102,1.086,1.128,1.135,-----,-----,EU,25
 1.113 ,1.105,1.061,1.160,1.127,1.081,1.146,1.163,1.116,1.061,Schweiz
 1.113 ,1.124,1.061,1.155,1.102,1.087,1.127,1.135,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-25+IS,LI,NO)
 1.113 ,1.154,1.131,1.186,1.071,1.065,1.110,1.105,1.083,-----,Serbia
 1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.169,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.137,-----,-----,Euro,17
 1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.170,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.138,-----,-----,Euro,16
 1.116 ,1.129,1.044,1.171,1.107,1.086,1.138,1.139,-----,-----,Euro,15
 1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.156,1.104,1.089,1.128,1.134,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-27+IS,LI,NO)
 1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.157,1.105,1.089,1.129,1.135,-----,-----,EU,27
 1.116 ,1.159,1.079,1.175,1.104,1.100,1.102,1.120,1.090,-----,Croatia
 1.119 ,1.157,1.010,1.216,1.124,1.089,1.147,1.106,1.111,1.117,Italia
 1.122 ,-----,-----,-----,1.104,1.153,1.133,1.117,1.103,-----,Aserbaidschan
 1.129 ,1.121,1.081,1.173,1.120,1.082,1.170,1.162,1.123,1.131,Belgium
 1.134 ,1.134,1.100,1.134,1.146,1.142,1.139,1.164,1.119,-----,Ireland
 1.135 ,1.118,1.112,1.147,1.128,1.122,1.136,1.161,1.152,1.144,UK
 1.147 ,1.206,1.179,1.176,1.176,1.138,1.150,1.105,1.134,1.064,Bulgaria
 1.148 ,1.203,1.220,1.174,1.115,1.106,1.136,1.145,1.159,1.081,Rumania
 1.151 ,1.138,1.079,1.269,1.139,1.149,1.170,1.164,1.122,1.134,Spain
 1.155 ,1.156,1.214,1.205,1.067,1.219,1.076,1.154,-----,-----,Cyprus
 1.199 ,-----,-----,-----,1.201,1.172,1.154,1.188,1.283,-----,Moldava
 1.214 ,1.180,1.147,1.330,1.200,1.197,1.218,1.285,1.214,1.161,Portugal
 1.216 ,-----,-----,-----,-----,-----,1.228,1.233,1.187,-----,Georgia
 1.231 ,1.227,1.200,1.332,1.271,1.113,1.271,1.204,1.133,1.336,Malta

Code:

deaths from respiratory causes per 1M population
2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 470 , 497 , 514 , 468 , 495 , 446 , 464 , 453 , 436 , 000 ,EU27
 468 , 490 , 516 , 466 , 492 , 440 , 444 , 444 , 430 , 000 ,EU15
 000 , 000 , 000 , 650 , 689 , 602 , 000 , 000 , 000 , 000 ,Belgium
 392 , 347 , 361 , 331 , 437 , 402 , 423 , 417 , 397 , 382 ,Bulgaria
 376 , 382 , 423 , 373 , 463 , 420 , 412 , 402 , 438 , 410 ,Czech
 662 , 715 , 712 , 641 , 610 , 606 , 639 , 625 , 665 , 000 ,Denmark
 362 , 396 , 424 , 379 , 401 , 370 , 380 , 377 , 395 , 370 ,Germany
 368 , 363 , 371 , 335 , 275 , 286 , 270 , 265 , 239 , 000 ,Estonia
1056 ,1001 ,1002 , 888 , 899 , 892 , 671 , 693 , 706 , 603 ,Ireland
 450 , 482 , 460 , 467 , 483 , 495 , 549 , 535 , 537 , 491 ,Greece
 560 , 603 , 616 , 533 , 618 , 505 , 545 , 528 , 503 , 452 ,Spain
 324 , 336 , 355 , 297 , 330 , 278 , 278 , 273 , 276 , 000 ,France
 323 , 335 , 356 , 296 , 330 , 277 , 277 , 272 , 275 , 000 ,France_metrop
 318 , 329 , 364 , 000 , 000 , 291 , 296 , 286 , 294 , 000 ,Italy
 000 , 000 , 000 , 405 , 420 , 376 , 403 , 363 , 394 , 000 ,Cyprus
 286 , 304 , 293 , 280 , 331 , 327 , 312 , 250 , 227 , 223 ,Latvia
 371 , 394 , 390 , 391 , 424 , 413 , 461 , 395 , 357 , 000 ,Lithuania
 495 , 608 , 642 , 477 , 446 , 404 , 432 , 398 , 439 , 365 ,Luxembourg
 336 , 360 , 414 , 391 , 477 , 455 , 480 , 434 , 443 , 425 ,Hungary
 812 , 765 , 715 , 673 , 605 , 535 , 522 , 536 , 511 , 472 ,Malta
 606 , 601 , 624 , 549 , 601 , 561 , 542 , 534 , 528 , 481 ,Netherlands
 309 , 325 , 402 , 345 , 350 , 320 , 318 , 286 , 283 , 000 ,Austria
 389 , 376 , 413 , 393 , 422 , 406 , 414 , 400 , 418 , 382 ,Poland
 585 , 593 , 598 , 530 , 666 , 659 , 605 , 620 , 637 , 595 ,Portugal
 638 , 686 , 624 , 603 , 570 , 531 , 518 , 495 , 506 , 000 ,Romania
 547 , 564 , 618 , 560 , 517 , 433 , 354 , 364 , 378 , 324 ,Slovenia
 524 , 551 , 588 , 543 , 560 , 516 , 538 , 499 , 517 , 524 ,Slovakia
 503 , 494 , 458 , 369 , 300 , 250 , 258 , 223 , 244 , 213 ,Finland
 355 , 381 , 359 , 327 , 344 , 308 , 308 , 314 , 307 , 000 ,Sweden
 781 , 801 , 853 , 792 , 809 , 745 , 737 , 747 , 696 , 677 ,UK
 417 , 415 , 414 , 391 , 473 , 392 , 393 , 434 , 423 , 000 ,Iceland
 562 , 595 , 512 , 446 , 510 , 488 , 510 , 499 , 494 , 000 ,Norway
 316 , 330 , 331 , 301 , 327 , 276 , 272 , 262 , 285 , 255 ,Switzerland
 349 , 374 , 461 , 489 , 522 , 391 , 408 , 337 , 332 , 281 ,Croatia
 326 , 357 , 432 , 397 , 413 , 375 , 376 , 378 , 334 , 000 ,(Macedonia)

Code:

correlations of yearly respiratory deathrates 2001-2009

m=33 n=9 
corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1 EU27           --  98 -31   2  54  66  68  64 -60  96  93  93  89  47  14  81 -25  64  86  82 -12 -19  72  79  89  68  83  93  28  41  84  58  59   1 EU27          
  2 EU15           98  -- -37   2  54  66  72  72 -71  93  96  96  94  40 - 1  82 -32  69  89  84 -13 -20  75  87  88  72  84  96  30  36  89  58  58   2 EU15          
  3 Bulgaria      -31 -37  --  64 -64 -18 -70 -50  54 -12 -37 -36 -54  14  44 -66  68 -59 -23 -37  62  77 -67 -65 -35 -63 -47 -42  50 - 4 -42 -11 - 6   3 Bulgaria      
  4 Czech           2   2  64  -- -31  49 -60 -30  31  15 - 1   0 - 3  15  23 -24  78 -56   0  13  88  82 -48 -26  19 -52 -27 - 9  59 -22   0  29  35   4 Czech         
  5 Denmark        54  54 -64 -31  --  54  65  45 -32  46  62  62  56 -21 -41  90 -59  62  49  34 -39 -42  67  54  52  73  69  42 -15  56  58 -15 - 6   5 Denmark       
  6 Germany        66  66 -18  49  54  --  15  14 -12  64  59  60  66   2 - 5  64  18   8  43  66  36  12  23  40  78  19  39  52  34   6  55  42  60   6 Germany       
  7 Estonia        68  72 -70 -60  65  15  --  87 -84  55  77  77  73  25 -25  81 -80  94  76  57 -63 -60  92  88  54  95  82  77 -23  46  71  17  11   7 Estonia       
  8 Ireland        64  72 -50 -30  45  14  87  -- -95  58  82  82  71  40 -30  68 -69  89  88  55 -48 -25  88  90  51  87  82  75   2  48  82  26   8   8 Ireland       
  9 Greece        -60 -71  54  31 -32 -12 -84 -95  -- -52 -77 -76 -76 -33  33 -59  65 -85 -79 -61  40  37 -81 -93 -52 -80 -71 -78 - 2 -22 -78 -41 -21   9 Greece        
 10 Spain          96  93 -12  15  46  64  55  58 -52  --  91  91  80  47  16  71 -18  59  85  70 - 5 - 3  66  69  83  61  82  85  48  51  85  53  50  10 Spain         
 11 France         93  96 -37 - 1  62  59  77  82 -77  91  --  99  90  36 -15  85 -45  79  95  74 -20 -17  83  89  82  82  91  89  30  52  95  44  36  11 France        
 12 France_metrop  93  96 -36   0  62  60  77  82 -76  91  99  --  91  36 -14  85 -44  79  95  75 -18 -17  82  89  83  82  91  90  31  51  95  44  38  12 France_metrop 
 13 Italy          89  94 -54 - 3  56  66  73  71 -76  80  90  91  --  28 -12  82 -35  68  79  89 - 8 -37  74  91  91  72  75  92  14  16  88  66  58  13 Italy         
 14 Latvia         47  40  14  15 -21   2  25  40 -33  47  36  36  28  --  69  11  19  16  51  50   2  22  30  31  44  17  28  46   0  19  33  56  41  14 Latvia        
 15 Lithuania      14 - 1  44  23 -41 - 5 -25 -30  33  16 -15 -14 -12  69  -- -25  61 -36 - 7  18  29  21 -24 -28  17 -34 -22   3 - 8 - 9 -22  40  41  15 Lithuania     
 16 Luxembourg     81  82 -66 -24  90  64  81  68 -59  71  85  85  82  11 -25  -- -55  74  75  67 -35 -40  83  80  77  84  84  75 - 6  51  80  19  25  16 Luxembourg    
 17 Hungary       -25 -32  68  78 -59  18 -80 -69  65 -18 -45 -44 -35  19  61 -55  -- -87 -43 - 2  84  64 -77 -61 - 5 -84 -66 -34  20 -51 -47  26  39  17 Hungary       
 18 Malta          64  69 -59 -56  62   8  94  89 -85  59  79  79  68  16 -36  74 -87  --  78  41 -66 -55  94  86  46  98  88  70 - 1  59  79  11 - 6  18 Malta         
 19 Netherlands    86  89 -23   0  49  43  76  88 -79  85  95  95  79  51 - 7  75 -43  78  --  69 -19 - 3  79  83  72  80  87  85  27  57  89  37  30  19 Netherlands   
 20 Austria        82  84 -37  13  34  66  57  55 -61  70  74  75  89  50  18  67 - 2  41  69  --  14 -20  50  75  92  47  49  87   0 - 6  66  77  81  20 Austria       
 21 Poland        -12 -13  62  88 -39  36 -63 -48  40 - 5 -20 -18 - 8   2  29 -35  84 -66 -19  14  --  59 -65 -38  13 -61 -53 -19  33 -50 -21  31  38  21 Poland        
 22 Portugal      -19 -20  77  82 -42  12 -60 -25  37 - 3 -17 -17 -37  22  21 -40  64 -55 - 3 -20  59  -- -49 -44 -18 -53 -28 -29  52   5 -18 - 9   1  22 Portugal      
 23 Romania        72  75 -67 -48  67  23  92  88 -81  66  83  82  74  30 -24  83 -77  94  79  50 -65 -49  --  89  59  96  93  73 - 4  60  85  22   3  23 Romania       
 24 Slovenia       79  87 -65 -26  54  40  88  90 -93  69  89  89  91  31 -28  80 -61  86  83  75 -38 -44  89  --  73  86  83  89   4  28  89  50  35  24 Slovenia      
 25 Slovakia       89  88 -35  19  52  78  54  51 -52  83  82  83  91  44  17  77 - 5  46  72  92  13 -18  59  73  --  54  62  82  12  15  79  71  67  25 Slovakia      
 26 Finland        68  72 -63 -52  73  19  95  87 -80  61  82  82  72  17 -34  84 -84  98  80  47 -61 -53  96  86  54  --  90  70 - 8  62  81  10 - 4  26 Finland       
 27 Sweden         83  84 -47 -27  69  39  82  82 -71  82  91  91  75  28 -22  84 -66  88  87  49 -53 -28  93  83  62  90  --  78  23  72  90  19  10  27 Sweden        
 28 UK             93  96 -42 - 9  42  52  77  75 -78  85  89  90  92  46   3  75 -34  70  85  87 -19 -29  73  89  82  70  78  --  19  23  81  64  65  28 UK            
 29 Iceland        28  30  50  59 -15  34 -23   2 - 2  48  30  31  14   0 - 8 - 6  20 - 1  27   0  33  52 - 4   4  12 - 8  23  19  --  19  33  20  16  29 Iceland       
 30 Norway         41  36 - 4 -22  56   6  46  48 -22  51  52  51  16  19 - 9  51 -51  59  57 - 6 -50   5  60  28  15  62  72  23  19  --  48 -36 -40  30 Norway        
 31 Switzerland    84  89 -42   0  58  55  71  82 -78  85  95  95  88  33 -22  80 -47  79  89  66 -21 -18  85  89  79  81  90  81  33  48  --  47  26  31 Switzerland   
 32 Croatia        58  58 -11  29 -15  42  17  26 -41  53  44  44  66  56  40  19  26  11  37  77  31 - 9  22  50  71  10  19  64  20 -36  47  --  81  32 Croatia       
 33 (Macedonia)    59  58 - 6  35 - 6  60  11   8 -21  50  36  38  58  41  41  25  39 - 6  30  81  38   1   3  35  67 - 4  10  65  16 -40  26  81  --  33 (Macedonia)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33

gsgs · #34 November 10th, 2012, 10:44 PM

do more deaths occur in winter, if we go South (closer to the equator) ?

gsgs · #35 November 11th, 2012, 05:23 AM

2010 is available now and downloaded.

However, I wonder whether those data are complete or additional
death-certificates will be added later
I can't find my numbers with google

monthly USA-deaths 2001-2010

Code:

 226976  226269  224460  238085  226822  220491  222496  224358  223341  223161 
 198968  209729  200835  204474  213660  201424  205101  223866  200750  200596 
 215850  226773  213873  210338  231486  222616  218521  233149  216539  219278 
 203027  200051  199672  196664  205188  202438  203303  207206  203284  202607 
 200929  200130  199478  194756  201211  201005  200107  202821  200802  204244 
 191547  188004  191861  186578  187732  188790  188620  190999  191283  192813 
 191578  193578  193996  191099  191821  194983  192725  192404  194924  199391 
 191284  191314  192864  189725  191183  191345  192169  192327  192857  197269 
 189107  187837  188803  184769  185855  188479  188808  188135  190016  193424 
 202679  200253  203089  198484  198348  202552  198969  200910  207592  207146 
 197400  202580  201375  194091  198943  200775  200535  201922  201668  206429 
 210615  220278  241848  212337  220257  215827  216989  218714  218163  226184 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2419960 2446796 2452154 2401400 2452506 2430725 2428343 2476811 2441219 2472542

just one google-hit if I delete the latest numbers:
pfortuny.net/doc/metodos.pdf

OK, CDC gives "resident deaths" as 2423712,2471984,2437163 for 2007,2008,2009
I might have to check for residency to get the correct numbers

that gives corrections for foreigner's death certificates in 1959...2010 of:
0
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
1935,1934,1029*2,2123,2088,2256,2467,2509,2839,293 5
3296,3285,3236,2989,2935,2938,3023,3019,3197(+101) ,3393(+123)
3427(+141),3542(+139),3574(+149),3394,3294,3119,35 22,3341,3452,3472
3842,3535,3409,3866,3785,4489,4461,4631,4827,4056
4107

that doesn't change the statistics much, just for googling the numbers

new corrected numbers of US-deaths 1959...2010 :

1660172
1711982,1701522,1756720,1813549,1798051,1828136,18 63149,1851323,1930082,1921990
1921031,1927542,1963944,1973003,1934388,1892879,19 09440,1899597,1927788,1913841
1989841,1978032,1974725,2019201,2039369,2086440,21 05361,2123323,2167999,2150466
2148463,2169518,2175613,2268553,2278994,2312132,23 14690,2314245,2337256,2391399
2403351,2416425,2443387,2448288,2397615,2448017,24 26264,2423712,2471984,2437163
2468435

gsgs · #36 November 12th, 2012, 10:41 PM

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23045622
annual flu excess deaths 1998-2009 in HK :111/M (95%CI=[72,146]) (USA:133)
751 (95% CI: 488-990) flu-excess deaths annually, 95% of them in elderly >65y.
53% respiratory 18% cardiovascular.
H3N2 worse than H1N1 or B

gsgs · #37 December 29th, 2012, 07:32 PM

report about excess winter mortality in the UK :
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf

20th century mortality tables for England and Wales
by sex,age-group,cause,year
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publicatio...37;3A77-215593
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publicatio...cm%3A77-276237

"excel" - format only. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Excel
Maybe someone can convert it all to normal ...

gsgs · #38 March 6th, 2013, 05:22 AM

examining double-peaks due to cocirculating strains with different
timings
(where daily data are available : 1962-1967,1972-1988)

examining how immunity favours other strains in the next season

CDC exists since 1946, but the first influenza surveillance reports
are from 1957. Are there flu-reports from earlier ?
CDC always had the weekly mortality data from the 108...122 US-cities.
Are these available from before 1996 , before 1959 ?

data in file us59_3.txt below and below from CDC-reports :

Code:

season,H1,H2,H3,B
1957f,0,99e,0,0
1958f,1e,24e,0,75e
1959f,3,94,0,3
1960f,3e,66noflu,0,31noflu
1961f,1e,4e,0,95e
1962f,0,99,0,0
1963f,0,95e,0,5e
1964f,0,70e,0,30e
1965f,0,40e,0,60e
1966f,0,50e,0,50e
1967f,0,95,0,5
1968f,0,1e,84,15
1969f,0,0,90e,10e
1970f,0,0,85,5
1971f,0,0,99,1
1972f,0,0,96,4
1973f,0,0,24,76
1974f,0,0,99,0
1975f,0,0,98,2
1976f,0,0,30,70
1977f,29e,0,70e,1e
1978f,97e,0,0e,3e
1979f,1,0,1,98
1980f,24,0,76,0
1981f,25,0,1,74
1982f,10,0,79,11
1983f,50,0,5,45
1984f,0,0,97,3
1985f,0,0,24,76
1986f,99,0,0,1
1987f,8,0,75,17
1988f,49,0,7,43
1989f,1,0,98,0
1990f,6,0,8,86
1991f,18,0,81,1
1992f,3,0,26,71
1993f,1,0,98,1
1994f,2,0,72,26
1995f,50,0,35,15
1996f,0,0,78(65),22
1997f,0,0,99,1
1998f,1,0,76,23
1999f,4,0,95,1
2000f,51,0,2,47
2001f,1,0,84,14
2002f,40,0,17,44
2003f,0,0,99,1
2004f,0,0,75,25
2005f,6,0,74,19
2006f,49,0,30,21
2007f,19,0,52,29
2008f,40(76),0,21,38
2009f,99mx,0,0,0
2010f,28,0,46,26
2011f,21,0,61,18
2012f,1,0,76,22

gsgs · #39 March 12th, 2013, 12:33 AM

see here, how the 1918-pandemic actually _reduced_ the deathrates
in the elderly in a profound and longlasting manner.

The effect is most clearly seen in the >35 age-groups

The years 1918-1920 were bad, but they were necessary
to build up immunity, so (young) people stopped dying from it.

It is the pattern since today, that H1 rarely kills, but H3 often kills
the elderly - it's still not clear why, afaik.
They are dying from respiratory issues, but also from ischemic heart
disease, even diabetes and other causes. Txpically influenza is not
noticed in these deaths. I'm speculating that (H3,not H1)
immun responses are somehow confusing the whole meatabolism
which makes them more vulnerable to blood-clumbs and such.

Serological evidence had been reported, that before 1918 there
was also H3. Which apparently was killed by H1N1 in 1918

here is the data, so others can find and reuse it

deathrates per million population, USA
(file eaage12

Code:

deathrate from P+I for 11 age groups
1900,2022,16821,3866,382,481,762,1141,1752,3294,6924,15313,28995
1901,1972,15203,3153,344,493,769,1122,1689,3327,7246,17468,36102
1902,1613,16508,3563,315,374,564,841,1272,2322,4775,10490,19161
1903,1693,15400,3088,306,378,616,944,1432,2690,5673,13279,25510
1904,1921,16457,3320,321,423,722,1174,1713,3221,6560,13717,32335
1905,1693,15986,2984,275,350,570,946,1420,2719,5830,13498,29226
1906,1563,16499,3249,264,332,514,829,1260,2395,4925,10392,21680
1907,1800,16207,3103,287,370,627,1007,1527,2975,6635,15700,32789
1908,1509,15186,2759,264,294,450,755,1247,2380,5360,13056,26139
1909,1481,16198,2891,246,268,427,736,1130,2238,5093,11668,23601
1910,1559,16290,2856,254,292,469,788,1257,2502,5566,12928,25550
1911,1454,14093,2442,233,286,430,739,1206,2354,5517,13251,27922
1912,1384,14910,2382,202,261,416,694,1108,2199,4933,11724,23965
1913,1408,15025,2503,232,272,424,732,1129,2148,4837,11602,24150
1914,1324,14398,2148,219,255,387,675,1102,2115,4601,10964,22446
1915,1459,14894,2055,218,280,430,710,1211,2400,5679,13715,29304
1916,1633,14140,2217,230,350,514,877,1404,2773,6613,16315,36988
1917,1645,14745,2115,240,389,593,981,1488,2814,6146,15030,31874
1918,5885,22733,7180,1762,5805,9926,5548,3478,3819,6463,11790,22306
1919,2230,15942,2939,633,1414,2859,1810,1639,2332,4596,9139,18422
1920,2073,14950,2837,451,1013,1806,1640,1649,2558,5459,11943,23701
1921,987,9795,1468,220,263,327,516,782,1455,3354,8426,18419
1922,1323,12650,1900,240,370,512,777,1031,1934,4571,11250,25303
1923,1517,13566,2007,260,435,560,879,1269,2237,5498,14319,34740
1924,1152,11848,1518,200,322,410,679,1031,1704,3799,9530,23613
1925,1217,11751,1503,233,361,443,741,1043,1778,4049,10716,27585
1926,1417,14005,1981,230,356,604,839,1227,2045,4700,12969,32454
1927,1022,10160,1291,188,273,374,624,922,1530,3400,8736,21688
1928,1425,13215,1766,275,428,566,916,1284,2037,4693,13055,33639
1929,1465,13219,1791,258,410,583,926,1322,2177,4967,14071,34928
1930,1025,10901,1231,188,278,389,611,957,1646,3370,8343,18844
1931,1075,11054,1253,196,304,446,678,1010,1649,3404,8840,21747
1932,1073,10305,1158,204,305,425,652,955,1629,3484,10065,26162
1933,957,9900,1090,175,250,380,597,884,1493,3005,8362,21688
1934,969,10553,1154,178,246,363,576,923,1571,3025,8029,19002
1935,1042,10029,1116,199,286,436,666,1016,1669,3259,8535,20718
1936,1196,10904,1193,218,356,501,778,1189,1941,3722,9776,23302
1937,1149,10364,1124,179,294,458,721,1169,1898,3576,9603,24259
1938,804,9019,902,137,184,270,423,709,1233,2482,6775,15921
1939,757,7937,703,114,152,222,371,635,1137,2456,7170,19301
1940,703,8701,625,90,115,171,286,518,937,2264,6912,19299
1941,638,7720,571,80,101,151,266,471,856,1966,6009,18132
1942,557,6944,477,66,86,130,243,420,754,1671,4730,12958
1943,671,6761,547,81,103,151,285,514,920,1970,5711,17091
1944,616,6230,454,70,86,126,233,429,824,1823,5509,16884
1945,516,5901,384,69,88,114,200,350,644,1364,4179,12575
1946,445,5272,301,52,61,79,155,295,573,1273,4013,13119
1947,431,3823,250,45,49,70,136,275,559,1259,3945,13010
1948,387,4078,244,40,42,55,122,234,467,1096,3450,11112
1949,300,2884,198,32,32,43,92,189,372,878,2629,8789
1950,313,2681,189,32,32,42,90,193,382,971,2965,9544
1951,314,2520,190,32,34,40,87,189,383,938,2995,9351
1952,297,2669,199,32,30,42,86,173,337,820,2666,8252
1953,330,2575,188,31,32,42,88,186,382,966,3107,10007
1954,254,2272,161,24,24,33,66,142,276,708,2206,7132
1955,271,2216,149,25,27,31,68,142,295,764,2498,7911
1956,282,2253,153,23,24,30,70,140,304,806,2580,8536
1957,358,2399,183,38,55,56,102,206,443,1069,2986,9798
1958,331,2453,160,23,29,43,78,173,389,960,2928,9881
1959,312,2392,153,25,27,38,77,155,335,865,2816,9243
1960,373,2390,162,26,30,48,93,196,432,1121,3406,11266
from heart-disease
1900,1374,1478,150,233,288,434,808,1730,4141,9573,17519,22498
1901,1400,1221,137,203,274,448,820,1754,4378,9666,18686,22286
1902,1454,1228,138,215,279,462,855,1811,4494,10137,19373,24616
1903,1518,1037,105,191,272,452,882,1850,4726,10803,21412,27057
1904,1637,1096,127,236,289,456,911,1950,5103,11795,22944,31770
1905,1619,1191,109,234,284,461,926,1950,5011,11399,22801,31841
1906,1542,997,108,214,276,450,907,1897,4944,11463,22440,32684
1907,1666,903,122,216,291,457,945,2093,5303,12361,25114,36823
1908,1520,922,118,218,258,405,881,1854,4758,11500,23284,34878
1909,1530,889,107,209,250,397,832,1818,4704,11551,23539,35170
1910,1589,992,128,223,267,408,857,1895,4807,11917,24816,38116
1911,1564,825,107,210,256,407,854,1885,4770,12026,24458,37779
1912,1587,744,99,187,256,401,882,1907,4783,12072,25244,37383
1913,1546,737,111,200,243,406,867,1843,4589,11607,24543,37929
1914,1582,602,98,215,250,396,889,1829,4627,12158,25075,39779
1915,1639,605,96,198,255,395,848,1847,4792,12587,26177,43442
1916,1672,556,102,190,253,426,883,1938,4920,12733,27344,44985
1917,1699,560,98,182,268,441,896,1954,4989,12795,27845,45421
1918,1716,553,103,193,350,558,963,1954,4896,12365,26110,42691
1919,1479,498,84,149,229,351,741,1650,4254,11139,25067,43235
1920,1596,520,97,174,245,375,731,1716,4520,12009,28574,52144
1921,1562,436,99,186,243,334,698,1741,4406,11667,27629,51728
1922,1650,456,95,160,234,338,747,1857,4695,12496,29255,57350
1923,1740,465,95,160,234,343,787,1983,4982,12730,30693,61036
1924,1757,431,88,168,246,352,815,2031,4869,12619,30790,60765
1925,1848,428,93,165,237,365,838,2091,5088,13198,32130,67457
1926,1986,398,87,148,237,365,865,2213,5399,14196,35081,72389
1927,1953,379,85,149,236,365,860,2181,5309,13902,33470,68250
1928,2077,349,81,136,222,385,917,2314,5606,14845,36120,72671
1929,2112,351,81,136,226,384,893,2325,5766,14956,35635,71059
1930,2142,331,69,121,213,382,894,2389,5986,14939,34767,66809
1931,2134,240,66,113,197,361,880,2368,5923,14585,34367,65546
1932,2241,175,59,102,184,349,872,2373,6093,15104,36512,71362
1933,2280,174,61,99,173,341,862,2447,6283,15230,36777,69269
1934,2403,165,54,93,171,344,906,2588,6480,15626,38254,72910
1935,2454,246,57,101,165,331,895,2548,6469,15706,38826,73992
1936,2666,259,50,102,166,334,945,2683,6848,16553,42552,81127
1937,2689,194,49,88,158,324,926,2720,6855,16432,41900,78940
1938,2697,203,44,88,155,306,918,2706,6711,16391,41051,76400
1939,2755,182,44,83,149,294,892,2682,6805,16382,41329,79457
1940,2925,175,36,80,140,297,917,2795,7135,17285,42337,83130
1941,4753,310,70,116,216,452,1429,4341,10917,27479,69493,143036
1942,4795,199,78,107,215,456,1433,4376,10937,27117,67371,140391
1943,5108,174,72,108,220,465,1444,4434,11292,28054,71549,152909
1944,5005,172,71,108,216,439,1386,4258,10851,26533,67435,141751
1945,5082,151,67,103,212,444,1375,4252,10801,25910,65491,141086
1946,4768,152,59,85,171,364,1254,4073,10431,24810,63222,142181
1947,4910,120,53,76,152,346,1238,4178,10675,25512,64757,147766
1948,4880,115,55,72,150,335,1238,4102,10449,25046,63489,146534
1949,5021,114,41,66,139,327,1225,4120,10698,25697,64374,145151
1950,5108,114,38,55,135,324,1224,4115,10683,26090,65229,146256
1951,5132,159,34,50,133,321,1217,4062,10545,25381,64698,143334
1952,5118,173,38,48,132,319,1200,4019,10460,24943,63484,139261
1953,5148,177,35,44,123,313,1171,3928,10293,24965,63305,140120
1954,4952,163,32,39,114,291,1073,3705,9700,23850,60362,134857
1955,5060,149,31,34,108,278,1057,3555,9583,24033,62192,142224
1956,5105,150,31,32,101,275,1030,3517,9647,24076,62002,144248
1957,5235,145,32,31,105,278,1035,3575,9831,24542,62198,148599
1958,5235,137,29,26,90,275,1024,3542,9630,24205,62437,149944
1959,5159,131,29,26,86,268,997,3461,9390,23587,60861,147369
1960,5218,122,25,27,84,258,1008,3449,9438,23737,61238,149451
from all causes
1900,172,1624,198,39,59,82,102,150,272,564,1233,2609
1901,164,1414,169,35,55,80,103,150,278,562,1246,2608
1902,155,1389,166,33,51,75,96,140,259,529,1141,2356
1903,156,1326,154,34,52,75,98,143,272,550,1208,2537
1904,164,1392,159,37,55,78,102,151,285,582,1261,2700
1905,159,1412,150,34,52,74,98,147,277,562,1224,2615
1906,157,1448,158,33,53,75,98,145,271,550,1204,2551
1907,159,1380,147,32,53,75,102,151,286,588,1287,2691
1908,147,1332,140,30,48,67,90,138,262,588,1195,2486
1909,142,1267,135,28,44,63,87,133,256,589,1184,2449
1910,147,1318,140,29,45,65,90,137,262,556,1222,2503
1911,139,1140,118,27,45,64,89,135,258,550,1201,2464
1912,136,1111,109,25,43,61,86,134,258,545,1202,2422
1913,138,1148,119,27,44,62,87,135,255,541,1179,2359
1914,133,1072,102,25,42,60,85,131,251,541,1156,2315
1915,132,1024,92,23,41,58,83,131,255,556,1201,2403
1916,138,1057,111,25,44,62,88,136,265,572,1239,2504
1917,140,1046,107,26,47,65,90,139,268,573,1239,2459
1918,181,1117,157,41,107,164,134,152,265,550,1130,2221
1919,129,910,93,27,53,75,86,123,231,500,1078,2222
1920,130,923,99,26,49,68,81,122,236,525,1189,2483
1921,115,806,80,25,39,49,68,112,221,490,1112,2391
1922,117,776,74,21,38,50,71,118,232,522,1175,2581
1923,121,811,81,21,39,50,73,122,239,533,1235,2797
1924,116,768,68,20,38,48,71,121,230,510,1172,2618
1925,117,754,64,20,38,48,72,122,233,517,1193,2723
1926,121,779,72,19,37,49,74,127,241,538,1254,2797
1927,113,688,59,19,35,47,71,120,229,512,1159,2501
1928,120,731,65,19,37,50,75,128,242,543,1252,2683
1929,119,716,63,19,36,50,73,127,245,540,1222,2543
1930,113,690,56,17,33,47,68,122,240,514,1127,2280
1931,111,644,53,17,32,45,67,120,236,499,1105,2228
1932,109,613,46,15,29,42,63,116,234,500,1143,2333
1933,107,613,47,15,27,41,62,114,232,490,1113,2223
1934,111,668,51,15,28,41,62,118,235,494,1141,2248
1935,109,609,44,15,27,40,62,116,232,487,1131,2246
1936,116,629,44,15,28,41,65,121,241,508,1217,2427
1937,113,613,42,14,26,39,62,118,235,490,1170,2272
1938,106,580,38,12,23,34,56,109,221,471,1109,2126
1939,106,537,32,11,21,32,53,107,221,472,1125,2233
1940,108,549,29,10,20,31,52,106,223,480,1126,2289
1941,105,526,28,10,20,29,50,103,213,462,1058,2187
1942,103,488,24,9,19,28,48,101,210,449,1016,2111
1943,109,440,27,10,21,27,48,102,215,462,1075,2303
1944,106,442,23,09,20,27,46,97,208,439,1017,2153
1945,106,425,20,9,19,27,46,96,205,426,984,2096
1946,100,463,18,8,17,23,42,92,198,412,951,2106
1947,101,345,16,7,15,21,41,92,201,421,970,2169
1948,99,357,16,7,14,20,39,90,197,414,951,2132
1949,97,352,15,7,13,18,37,87,193,408,930,2032
1950,96,330,14,6,13,18,36,85,190,410,933,2020
1951,97,323,14,6,13,18,35,85,188,401,924,1976
1952,96,321,14,6,13,17,34,83,186,394,905,1906
1953,96,308,13,5,12,16,33,82,184,394,906,1919
1954,92,293,12,5,11,15,31,78,174,379,860,1816
1955,93,285,11,5,12,15,31,76,173,381,879,1898
1956,94,282,11,5,12,15,30,75,174,381,879,1923
1957,96,280,11,5,12,15,31,76,178,390,881,1979
1958,95,281,11,5,11,15,30,75,174,384,879,1980
1959,94,275,11,5,11,15,29,74,171,376,858,1942
1960,95,270,11,5,11,15,30,76,174,382,875,1986



from CDC , 1900-40.pdf  , page 258=253, table 14

  CDC , 1940-60.pdf page 447

table 63,p374:35 causes,age,color,sex
all causes, p380=374,1076.4-->954.7
tuberculosis, p385, 45.0-->6.1
syphilis,394,14.4-->1.6
cancer,399,120.3-->149.2
diabetes,442=336,26.7-->16.7
cvr,447,485.7-->521.8
vasc.lesions,451,90.9-->108.0
arterioscl,-->275.0
hypertensive-->44.0
nephritis,p480,79.0-->6.7
p+i,p484,70.3-->37.3
infancy,p520,-->37.4

total : p43,p318

from 1900-40.pdf , page 258=253, table 14
table 7,page , table 6, page 169
typed into computer by hand

gsgs · #40 May 5th, 2013, 07:14 AM

the magnitude of this decrease is really surprising to me

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23637964
Following smoking ban implementation in Ireland March,2004, an immediate
13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99),
26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88),
32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85),
38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83)
mortality was observed.

------------------------------------------------------------

I don't quite see this. There was a steady decline in 2000-2005, since 2006 it goes up again.
But nothing like 13% in any year

HMD gives Irish deaths as

2000 31391
2001 30212
2002 29683
2003 29074
2004 28665
2005 27441
2006 28488
2007 28117
2008 28192
2009 28898

2008:
28380
27961
28995

also: http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birt...sandmarriages/