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PLoS ONE. Potential Geographic Distribution of the Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus
[Source: PLoS ONE, full page: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
Open Access / Unclassified
Potential Geographic Distribution of the Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus
Gengping Zhu, A. Townsend Peterson
Published: April 01, 2014 / DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093390
Abstract
Background
In late March 2013, a new avian-origin influenza virus emerged in eastern China. This H7N9 subtype virus has since infected 240 people and killed 60, and has awakened global concern as a potential pandemic threat. Ecological niche modeling has seen increasing applications as a useful tool in mapping geographic potential and risk of disease transmission.
Methodology/Principals
We developed two datasets based on seasonal variation in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the MODIS sensor to characterize environmental dimensions of H7N9 virus. One-third of well-documented cases was used to test robustness of models calibrated based on the remaining two-thirds, and model significance was tested using partial ROC approaches. A final niche model was calibrated using all records available.
Conclusions/Significance
Central-eastern China appears to represent an area of high risk for H7N9 spread, but suitable areas were distributed more spottily in the north and only along the coast in the south; highly suitable areas also were identified in western Taiwan. Areas identified as presenting high risk for H7N9 spread tend to present consistent NDVI values through the year, whereas unsuitable areas show greater seasonal variation.
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Citation: Zhu G, Peterson AT (2014) Potential Geographic Distribution of the Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus. PLoS ONE 9(4): e93390. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0093390
Editor: Srinand Sreevatsan, University of Minnesota, United States of America
Received: October 8, 2013; Accepted: March 3, 2014; Published: April 1, 2014
Copyright: ? 2014 Zhu, Peterson. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: No current funding sources were specifically designate for this study, however, partial support was from the talent introduction program award to GZ in Tianjin Normal University (5RL127). No additional funding was received for this study. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Open Access / Unclassified
Potential Geographic Distribution of the Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus
Gengping Zhu, A. Townsend Peterson
Published: April 01, 2014 / DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093390
Abstract
Background
In late March 2013, a new avian-origin influenza virus emerged in eastern China. This H7N9 subtype virus has since infected 240 people and killed 60, and has awakened global concern as a potential pandemic threat. Ecological niche modeling has seen increasing applications as a useful tool in mapping geographic potential and risk of disease transmission.
Methodology/Principals
We developed two datasets based on seasonal variation in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the MODIS sensor to characterize environmental dimensions of H7N9 virus. One-third of well-documented cases was used to test robustness of models calibrated based on the remaining two-thirds, and model significance was tested using partial ROC approaches. A final niche model was calibrated using all records available.
Conclusions/Significance
Central-eastern China appears to represent an area of high risk for H7N9 spread, but suitable areas were distributed more spottily in the north and only along the coast in the south; highly suitable areas also were identified in western Taiwan. Areas identified as presenting high risk for H7N9 spread tend to present consistent NDVI values through the year, whereas unsuitable areas show greater seasonal variation.
______
Citation: Zhu G, Peterson AT (2014) Potential Geographic Distribution of the Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus. PLoS ONE 9(4): e93390. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0093390
Editor: Srinand Sreevatsan, University of Minnesota, United States of America
Received: October 8, 2013; Accepted: March 3, 2014; Published: April 1, 2014
Copyright: ? 2014 Zhu, Peterson. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: No current funding sources were specifically designate for this study, however, partial support was from the talent introduction program award to GZ in Tianjin Normal University (5RL127). No additional funding was received for this study. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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