2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

[pinkfrost]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

It's just my personal opionion, but the vast majority of New Zealanders haven't had novel H1N1 yet and most aren't doing anything that will lessen their likelihood of catching it. I know very few people that have had it.

In other years we haven't had a completely immunologically naive population - either people have some immunity from a virus that has circulated before or they've had this years injection.

Due to this I don't expect a decline in cases anytime soon. I think it's stll quite some way from "peaking".

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

News reports seem to suggest a predicted peak in August for Canterbury and September for Auckland.

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Schools going back next week should increase the spread!

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

more.

News reports seem to suggest a predicted peak in August for Canterbury and September for Auckland.

On the local television news report, which has not been updated online yet, the reporter claims experts are not expecting the flu season here to peak until mid August, perhaps even late August.

Swine flu overwhelms Christchurch hospital

All elective cardiac surgery in Canterbury has been postponed as swine flu overwhelms Christchurch Hospital's intensive care unit (ICU).....

Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend said more than 847,000 weeks of labour could be lost if the infection rate reached the predicted 30 per cent peak.......

Townsend believed absence rates would rise. "Those issues are starting to increase and we're expecting it to peak somewhere around late August or early September."

[DazzaMc]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Schools going back next week should increase the spread!

yer....
I'm feel uneasy letting my sprogs attend school.

Any advice anyone?

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Make sure you have anti-virals on hand and give them to the little ones at the first sign of sore throat, sniffle, temp....???

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Each situation is different.

We will be following our normal term time routine.

We are aware of flu symptoms and early recognition of danger signs.

Taking in to account medical needs, each family member has there own pandemic plan. Pets included.

Flu buddies and flu boxes are in place.

Neighbours have been contacted, offers of help and phone numbers exchanged.

In the event of flu we will contact family, flu buddies, neighbours, doctor/flu helpline as needed.

Plans are not fixed and may change as situation changes.

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

I just see that I used week 27 in my comparisons with
Fujian flu above, but NZ already has week 28, so add another big
increase. Maybe I can correct it...

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

update for week 29:

http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/PDF_surveillance/Virology/FluWeekRpt/2009/FluWeekRpt200929.pdf

~88% of flu are newflu
458 hospitalizations,5deaths






looks like the peak


Argentina assumes the peak 2 weeks ago
Chile assumes the peak in 3 weeks



can we compare it with Fujian-flu 2003 ?
how many hospitalizations, how many children died from flu in 2003

[kiwibird]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

It appears the rate of consultation is levelling off.

[DazzaMc]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

The effect of the school break?

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

post peak !

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

gs I think it is too early to say whether it has peaked or not. School holidays may have had an influence. Most schools and universities went back to class on July the 20th.

[gsgs]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

in last year's chart you can see a 2nd peak 4 weeks after the first one.

School reopening or different virus ?

[Sally Furniss]

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

School reopened 21 July 2008

I do not know when University students resumed classes.


edit to add

Primary schools have 2 weeks holiday

Secondary and university students have 3 weeks