the (suddenly increased speed of) decline in deaths was seen in
deaths from multiple causes, including diabetes,bronchitis,
pneumonia, liver/gallbladder/pancreas,ischemic heart disease,
but most from stroke and hypertensive disease.
But not in cancer deaths.
We typically see this multi-decline each year in summer.
(seasonality of deaths)
But the 1974-1976 decline is profound and long-lived.
Deaths from smog, air-pollution gives a similar patter
of causes, but the effect should not have been so big,
whatever pollutant might have been reduced starting
Maybe a general change in diet of the elderly
or food additives ? Or sudden availability of blood-pressure
measurement for the masses ? Some health campaign ?
just one google-hit if I delete the latest numbers:
OK, CDC gives "resident deaths" as 2423712,2471984,2437163 for 2007,2008,2009
I might have to check for residency to get the correct numbers
that gives corrections for foreigner's death certificates in 1959...2010 of:
that doesn't change the statistics much, just for googling the numbers
annual flu excess deaths 1998-2009 in HK :111/M (95%CI=[72,146]) (USA:133)
751 (95% CI: 488-990) flu-excess deaths annually, 95% of them in elderly >65y.
53% respiratory 18% cardiovascular.
H3N2 worse than H1N1 or B
examining double-peaks due to cocirculating strains with different
(where daily data are available : 1962-1967,1972-1988)
examining how immunity favours other strains in the next season
CDC exists since 1946, but the first influenza surveillance reports
are from 1957. Are there flu-reports from earlier ?
CDC always had the weekly mortality data from the 108...122 US-cities.
Are these available from before 1996 , before 1959 ?
data in file us59_3.txt below and below from CDC-reports :
see here, how the 1918-pandemic actually _reduced_ the deathrates
in the elderly in a profound and longlasting manner.
The effect is most clearly seen in the >35 age-groups
The years 1918-1920 were bad, but they were necessary
to build up immunity, so (young) people stopped dying from it.
It is the pattern since today, that H1 rarely kills, but H3 often kills
the elderly - it's still not clear why, afaik.
They are dying from respiratory issues, but also from ischemic heart
disease, even diabetes and other causes. Txpically influenza is not
noticed in these deaths. I'm speculating that (H3,not H1)
immun responses are somehow confusing the whole meatabolism
which makes them more vulnerable to blood-clumbs and such.
Serological evidence had been reported, that before 1918 there
was also H3. Which apparently was killed by H1N1 in 1918
here is the data, so others can find and reuse it
deathrates per million population, USA
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