Attention moderators, this is not a political discussion. It deals with economic realities during the pandemic. Let's talk creatively on ways to handle paying our bills during the pandemic, especially in the 2nd and 3rd waves. I felt it should be in the preparedness section since it is open to everyone. I hope that you don't move it to the Deliberation Room. It's my main preparedness concern, a silent one that I've been avoiding for the last two years. We need a open dialog to come to some reasonable and pragmatic solutions. I hope that through an open dialectic we can find a way to assist everyone.
Everyone is in the same boat now. We will all face this pandemic together. Even if we survive, we must rebuild later. No country will most likely remain unscathed. Here's my observations to set the stage. These are not criticisms of our state, they merely are our collective reality.
Federal, state, and local governments are facing record budget deficits. Many homeowners owe more on their homes than the homes are valued. That loss of value translates to lower property taxes. We're averaging more than ten percent unemployment across the US. While there has been a increase in the stock market since the presidential election, much of savings in the form of securities and cash has been lost. Many retirees have lost a significant amount of retirement savings...maybe a minimum of a third of it's former value.
Imagine work, school and government closures during the pandemic. How many days have to pass before many businesses are seriously in arrears? How much uncollectable debt will there be? How will businesses pay their rents? Businesses might lose stock or materials during the pandemic. I can imagine a high rate of claims for those folks. Will the insurance claims even be collectible when so many are making claims?
Some authorities have stated that business owners should pay for pandemic absences. Most are unprepared for continuing to both pay for their absent employees salaries and trying to stay afloat. Large corporations may have the funds...for a while. What happens later if those absences are sustained?
Large numbers of deaths may occur to people with insurance. Will the insurance companies face bankruptcy with so many claims? Many people do not have insurance. Who will care for the survivors when they face not only expensive medical bills from the death of their loved ones, but also the loss of income.
Many Americans live paycheck to paycheck with a paper thin amount of savings. How will people make it for a month or more without one? How will people pay their rents, utilities, credit card payments, school loans, installment loans, etc? How will they buy groceries or fill up their cars with gas?
Are you getting the picture now? We can talk about preparedness all day long, but ultimately our supplies run out and we have to buy more. For those of us who have prepared, we've gone without in order to squirrel away our supplies. We know how hard this is to do and what a sacrifice it is. We've done it ourselves and understand why some of you are reticent.
Let's say that our leadership suspends loan repayments? How long is that viable for those businesses? Utility payments can be suspended since they are run by local governments, but ultimately they need more chlorine for water treatment and coal for electricity generation. They'll need cash to pay suppliers.
We can all imagine the phone and utilities being cut off and the consequences of that happening during the winter. In that same winter scenario, people can run out of food, and groceries can run out of supplies. People can and will hunt and fish for a time. There are less and less wild areas, and to be honest many people have not ever used those skills before, nor do they have the tools to do so. It will be a long wait until the spring to grow crops, and an even longer wait until the late summer and autumn for harvesting beans and potatoes. This requires seeds, fertilizer, soil, and skill. Some industrious farmers can switch to small scale operations of raising rabbits and chickens, but these will take time to develop. They will need to be paid.
We can, most likely, operate in a barter system at the local level, once the flu dies down some. That won't work for gasoline, but some enterprising scientific folks can create biodiesel or ethanol operations. These are very long term operations that are demanding.
If the utilities fail, we will have no modes of communication that will work for very long. Ham operators, if they've planned well, have solar backup plans. Diesel and gas generators will work for a time, until the supplies run out. We'll need those lines of communication in order for the officials to tell us their plans. Many people will not have planned and will rely upon the radios in their cars for communication. That will only work for so long. Ham operator transmit and receive on very different frequencies, so many people unless truly prepared will simply have no communication. Isolated people, low on food, money, and morale will do uncoordinated, silly, dangerous and perhaps immoral things in order to survive.
We need some ideas...some very creative ones if this will be a long process as it was in 1918. Our very best minds should be working on the economic, scientific, administrative, and medical aspects of the pandemic. We need leadership and a open dialog with our governments in order to share ideas.
We are not the same people who survived the 1918 pandemic. We know more about the world and have more technology, that's true. We are also far less able to survive as generalists i.e. hunt, fish, can vegetables, ride horses, etc.
People have survive catastrophes before. As I recall, Canadians experienced long term ice storms several decades ago. Australians experienced at least a month of power outages some time back. The people of Bosnia and Croatia suffered for extended periods of time during war. Some of their ideas may assist us all.
I can imagine, if things truly turn dire, that all of us will be working for the government in some capacity. Orphans will need to be cared for. Patients will need not only doctors and nurses, but surplus staff to take care of basic needs. We'll need communicators to travel to different communities to share what has happened and what is being planned. Basic infrastructure like re-staffing utilities and stores will need to happen. Large scale agricultural and livestock operations will need extra assistance. The dead will need to be buried.
It may very well be that our officials will temporarily suspend payments and offer economic assistance to us all. That will have cascading consequences.
In my household, we are planing to have much more than the recommended amounts of cash on hand. If the banks close, and ATMs don't work, and credit card machines are unoperational....well it might be good to have several thousand on hand as a buffer. I know that most of you cannot do that. Our officials know that too.
You're probably thinking that this can't be happening, and that in no way can things ever get this dire. My answer to that is, why not? Because you live in a modern society, then are you thinking it will always be so?
If I am wrong, then preparing by thinking through this scenario costs nothing. It becomes merely an academic exercise. If you plan economically, it costs nothing...just a temporary reallocation of resources. If you purchase supplies ahead of time, you will only not have to purchase them later.
If I am right, then we will have a plan. If I am right and you have plenty of cash later, you will be able to pay for goods at least for a time. If I'm right and you store up for the pandemic, you may have a diversity of things that your neighbors won't have.
Very few of us have enough money to pay our rents and mortgages six months ahead of schedule. That's just not an option. I'm guessing if things get dire, they'll be an amnesty program. We cannot expect a free ride on utility operations though.
I can imagine something like a special tax that each of us will owe the government post-pandemic to cover the costs of government intervention. I expect that kind of solution.
What ideas do you have?
Everyone is in the same boat now. We will all face this pandemic together. Even if we survive, we must rebuild later. No country will most likely remain unscathed. Here's my observations to set the stage. These are not criticisms of our state, they merely are our collective reality.
Federal, state, and local governments are facing record budget deficits. Many homeowners owe more on their homes than the homes are valued. That loss of value translates to lower property taxes. We're averaging more than ten percent unemployment across the US. While there has been a increase in the stock market since the presidential election, much of savings in the form of securities and cash has been lost. Many retirees have lost a significant amount of retirement savings...maybe a minimum of a third of it's former value.
Imagine work, school and government closures during the pandemic. How many days have to pass before many businesses are seriously in arrears? How much uncollectable debt will there be? How will businesses pay their rents? Businesses might lose stock or materials during the pandemic. I can imagine a high rate of claims for those folks. Will the insurance claims even be collectible when so many are making claims?
Some authorities have stated that business owners should pay for pandemic absences. Most are unprepared for continuing to both pay for their absent employees salaries and trying to stay afloat. Large corporations may have the funds...for a while. What happens later if those absences are sustained?
Large numbers of deaths may occur to people with insurance. Will the insurance companies face bankruptcy with so many claims? Many people do not have insurance. Who will care for the survivors when they face not only expensive medical bills from the death of their loved ones, but also the loss of income.
Many Americans live paycheck to paycheck with a paper thin amount of savings. How will people make it for a month or more without one? How will people pay their rents, utilities, credit card payments, school loans, installment loans, etc? How will they buy groceries or fill up their cars with gas?
Are you getting the picture now? We can talk about preparedness all day long, but ultimately our supplies run out and we have to buy more. For those of us who have prepared, we've gone without in order to squirrel away our supplies. We know how hard this is to do and what a sacrifice it is. We've done it ourselves and understand why some of you are reticent.
Let's say that our leadership suspends loan repayments? How long is that viable for those businesses? Utility payments can be suspended since they are run by local governments, but ultimately they need more chlorine for water treatment and coal for electricity generation. They'll need cash to pay suppliers.
We can all imagine the phone and utilities being cut off and the consequences of that happening during the winter. In that same winter scenario, people can run out of food, and groceries can run out of supplies. People can and will hunt and fish for a time. There are less and less wild areas, and to be honest many people have not ever used those skills before, nor do they have the tools to do so. It will be a long wait until the spring to grow crops, and an even longer wait until the late summer and autumn for harvesting beans and potatoes. This requires seeds, fertilizer, soil, and skill. Some industrious farmers can switch to small scale operations of raising rabbits and chickens, but these will take time to develop. They will need to be paid.
We can, most likely, operate in a barter system at the local level, once the flu dies down some. That won't work for gasoline, but some enterprising scientific folks can create biodiesel or ethanol operations. These are very long term operations that are demanding.
If the utilities fail, we will have no modes of communication that will work for very long. Ham operators, if they've planned well, have solar backup plans. Diesel and gas generators will work for a time, until the supplies run out. We'll need those lines of communication in order for the officials to tell us their plans. Many people will not have planned and will rely upon the radios in their cars for communication. That will only work for so long. Ham operator transmit and receive on very different frequencies, so many people unless truly prepared will simply have no communication. Isolated people, low on food, money, and morale will do uncoordinated, silly, dangerous and perhaps immoral things in order to survive.
We need some ideas...some very creative ones if this will be a long process as it was in 1918. Our very best minds should be working on the economic, scientific, administrative, and medical aspects of the pandemic. We need leadership and a open dialog with our governments in order to share ideas.
We are not the same people who survived the 1918 pandemic. We know more about the world and have more technology, that's true. We are also far less able to survive as generalists i.e. hunt, fish, can vegetables, ride horses, etc.
People have survive catastrophes before. As I recall, Canadians experienced long term ice storms several decades ago. Australians experienced at least a month of power outages some time back. The people of Bosnia and Croatia suffered for extended periods of time during war. Some of their ideas may assist us all.
I can imagine, if things truly turn dire, that all of us will be working for the government in some capacity. Orphans will need to be cared for. Patients will need not only doctors and nurses, but surplus staff to take care of basic needs. We'll need communicators to travel to different communities to share what has happened and what is being planned. Basic infrastructure like re-staffing utilities and stores will need to happen. Large scale agricultural and livestock operations will need extra assistance. The dead will need to be buried.
It may very well be that our officials will temporarily suspend payments and offer economic assistance to us all. That will have cascading consequences.
In my household, we are planing to have much more than the recommended amounts of cash on hand. If the banks close, and ATMs don't work, and credit card machines are unoperational....well it might be good to have several thousand on hand as a buffer. I know that most of you cannot do that. Our officials know that too.
You're probably thinking that this can't be happening, and that in no way can things ever get this dire. My answer to that is, why not? Because you live in a modern society, then are you thinking it will always be so?
If I am wrong, then preparing by thinking through this scenario costs nothing. It becomes merely an academic exercise. If you plan economically, it costs nothing...just a temporary reallocation of resources. If you purchase supplies ahead of time, you will only not have to purchase them later.
If I am right, then we will have a plan. If I am right and you have plenty of cash later, you will be able to pay for goods at least for a time. If I'm right and you store up for the pandemic, you may have a diversity of things that your neighbors won't have.
Very few of us have enough money to pay our rents and mortgages six months ahead of schedule. That's just not an option. I'm guessing if things get dire, they'll be an amnesty program. We cannot expect a free ride on utility operations though.
I can imagine something like a special tax that each of us will owe the government post-pandemic to cover the costs of government intervention. I expect that kind of solution.
What ideas do you have?
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