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Pandemic Economic Phases

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  • Pandemic Economic Phases

    A friend who started reading FluTrackers asked last week what the "phases" meant. There's been some reference to Phase 2.

    I told her that I thought there were three phases of pandemic that had been discussed and there would be different needs in the different phases (correct me if I mis-remember):

    Phase 1: The beginning (where we are now)
    Phase 2: The pandemic itself
    Phase 3 : Recovery

    I told her that having cash would be useful in the middle phase and during the recovery phase. Since the chances for raising cash in the middle of a pandemic will undoubtedly be reduced, it therefore makes sense to have cash now.

    What's interesting is that the next day we were working on a large community rummage sale and auction. We needed substantial cash in small bills. Several thousands -- in wads of $1s, $5s and $10s -- more than she or I routinely handle. Like everyone, we use plastic. Anyway, we decided to make it a little experiment. We went to her bank. I did the transaction. The management didn't know me. I decided to offer very little info. I wanted to understand the process and see what they'd ask, if anything. I was pleasant but did minimal sharing of information.

    I was surprised that it turned out to be such a big deal. The manager was called in. She said they needed a few hours to get it together and warned me they'd need to do it in private (no one behind me in line) for security sake, she said. I hadn't known that if you get more than $5,000 in cash at one time (I think it was that much), you have to fill out a form, they fingerprint you, the bank has to report it to the govt which may put you on a watch list. Guess it's terrorism related. Wow, I was surprised. Anyway I went back to the bank around closing and they counted out the cash with their machine and it was done.

    In the case of pandemic, there could be some major anxiety among the public if they run on the bank for cash and have to face that cumbersome process.

    At the end of my transaction, I told the manager the cash was for a huge rummage sale/auction. I then asked what they were planning to do if people wanted cash at the beginning of a bird flu pandemic. She looked a bit startled and said she didn't know. I suggested she find out what the bank's pandemic plan suggested as standard operating procedure. I know this particular bank has worked on a pandemic plan. Guess the SOP hasn't filtered down yet.

    All together, it was an instructive exercise. My friend "got it" that pandemic would probably mean no business as usual. She's prepping now.

    [The fundraiser went off without a hitch.]

  • #2
    Re: Hypothetical Phases of Pandemic and Economic Implications

    Originally posted by Mellie
    A friend who started reading FluTrackers asked last week what the "phases" meant. There's been some reference to Phase 2.

    I told her that I thought there were three phases of pandemic that had been discussed and there would be different needs in the different phases (correct me if I mis-remember):

    Phase 1: The beginning (where we are now)
    Phase 2: The pandemic itself
    Phase 3 : Recovery
    Mellie you remember correctly. I began that discussion on another forum on 2/2/06.

    Basically, there will be 4 Phases:

    Phase 1: The Beginning (where we are now)
    Phase 2: The Pandemic Itself
    Phase 3: Recovery
    Phase 4: Resumption

    I will elaborate below.

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    • #3
      Re: Hypothetical Phases of Pandemic and Economic Implications

      Phase 1--

      This is the Phase where it begins to enter the thought process that this 'BF thing" might be a problem. We are already seeing the beginning effects, economically, of the spread amongst birds world wide.

      There are threads here that will discuss each major country or region, economically, as the disease spreads. Already we are seeing chicken farmers commiting suicide in India as they are financially ruined. Tourist areas in the affected regions also suffer. Poultry and egg sales are down in the EU. Countries are stepping with small financial assistance to offset some of the loses of their citizens at this time. Loans are being offered too. Until the BF problem becomes widespread this is affordable.

      But as it speads to more regions, countries will not be able to compensate everyone.

      A gradual shift will occur to the countries best equipped to withstand the pandemic both financially and militarily. The United States is one of those countries. The world's wealth will begin to flow into the U.S. and a few other industrialized and militarily strong countries.

      This shift will occur primarily into cash vehicles like U.S. treasury notes.

      As the spread occurs amongst birds, certain sectors will feel the impact first: anything poultry, resorts, theme parks, various enterprises that use the outdoors as a venue. Sectors that could "ramp up": alternative protein sources, financial services, security, protective gear, communication technology, anything for BF abatement.

      Note: I also consider Canada a "safe haven" for money and personal security as compared to the rest of the world.
      Last edited by sharon sanders; March 5, 2006, 12:45 PM.

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