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Pandemic threat-level market indicators

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  • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

    I don't know BB, Ukraine is a small country I don't think there will be ramifications unless the numbers reach something undeniable. Judging by the last couple of days of trading, it's possible the market will be lower by the close tomorrow.

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    • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

      Yes, I don't know if it will effect the whole market yet but it will be interesting to see if the flu biotechs (NVAX, AVII, BCRX, etc.) are the dominant ones trading pre-open. [Just turn on CNBC and watch that lower scroll bar.]
      If they aren't actively trading, I would not be alarmed .
      If they are, then the situation bears serious attention .
      If they continue to trade up all day and into the close - panic time .

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      • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

        Checked the CNBC tickers this AM and saw nothing. I just checked pre-market quotes - Rutrow. All up at least 2.5 %. I'm here: quickly going here:
        Gold also went up $10 last night.

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        • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

          The failure of injectable H1N1 vaccine manufacturers to meet current demands should be a disappointment to all shareholders of vaccine production companies. It ought to be a great opportunity to increase revenue streams.
          http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

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          • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

            Threat postponed. Whew. Flutechs acting normal.

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            • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

              BCRX and NVAX both up over 6 % this morning. I would say that some determination has been made and the outcome is not good. But that's just me.

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              • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                Pandemic fears may trigger more securitizations

                Colleen McCarthy

                NEW YORK?Deepening fears of the H1N1 flu pandemic could lead to an uptick in the life insurance securitization market, experts say.


                The increasing geographic spread of the disease, combined with climbing death rates related to the virus, is highlighting potential exposure, experts say.


                As a result, insurers with significant mortality exposure may look to specialized insurance-linked securities instruments called extreme mortality bonds to shift some of their risk to the capital market, experts say.
                A recent life reinsurance report by New York-based Standard & Poor's Corp. said, despite a slowdown in the mortality bond market last year, the ?ongoing flu pandemic could spur further issuance as insurers and reinsurers seek to actively manage risk.?

                more...


                In their quest to respond to challenging market conditions, reinsurers are increasing their exposure to primary markets.

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                • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                  Originally posted by Binkerbear View Post
                  BCRX and NVAX both up over 6 % this morning. I would say that some determination has been made and the outcome is not good. But that's just me.
                  I wonder if this is connected with the increasingly concerned comments by Henry N. In summary he believes WHO is delaying some information from Ukraine and specifically suggests changes at position HA 225

                  The same concern is noted at the PF11 blog

                  Considerations on the Genetic Development of pH1N1 via Recombination


                  2009-11-09
                  225E Expectation in the Ukraine
                  PF11 SNP geographic analysis suggests that the Ukraine cases in the next two weeks may show a very similar genetic pattern to South America in August and the Mediterranean and Adriatic FlightPath in the past 8 weeks.

                  If the trend toward a higher infectivity of medical personnel continues as reported today of 687 doctors and 1,500 young specialists being ill, we would expect a higher death count in the coming days. Between 0.5% and 1.3% of all doctors in the country are ill (by region). Higher transmissibility is certain.

                  If a database of 100 sequences were to exist on the Ukraine, accurately cataloging a cross-reference of regions over 14 days of recent death and recovery cases, including major cities, rough expectations would indicate:

                  HA

                  225E
                  in moderate concentration (95% probability) with 206T

                  206T/225E/300S triplet
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (75% probability)

                  2E/206T/225E/298V quad combo
                  potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 2 sequences) (>25% probability)

                  2E/206T/225G/298V quad combo
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (<10% probability)

                  225G
                  potential, but certainly not widespread under current clinical reports (75% probability) with 206T

                  2E/206S/296H triplet
                  in low concentration (95% probability)

                  377K
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (25% probability)

                  270T
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

                  261V
                  potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

                  212 movement
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (7% probability)

                  208K
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (33% probability)

                  188/189/190 movement
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>50% probability)

                  158E
                  potential for appearance in very low count (1 to 3 sequences) (>25% probability)

                  100N
                  potential for introduction (1 sequence) (>25% probability)

                  35I
                  potential for appearance in moderate count (<20% probability)

                  NA

                  106I, 248N pairing
                  potential in very low count (<20% probability)

                  106I, 248N, 286G triplet
                  potential for introduction (7% probability until the 8th week of the flashfire

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                  • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                    BCRX down over 4 % and NVAX down over 5 %. There is no emergency IMHO.

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                    • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators



                      Novavax
                      Biocryst
                      Biota
                      Sinovac

                      (which shall we add ?)
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                        Taiko Pharmacauticals produce chlorine dioxyde - gas desinfectants

                        Nanoviricides new HA-antiviral could be available in 2015, if all works well
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                        Attached Files
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                          Cochrane Tamiflu study in the press :
                          Attached Files
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                            Nanoviricides went from 1.2 to 5.4 in a few days in mid-2013 ?!?
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment

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