remembering earlier Fauci statements about a H5N1 pandemic
Fauci about the possible H5N1 pandemic:
Fauci , May 8, 2007 :
You can not accurately predict if and when a given virus will become a pandemic virus.
Too little is known about exactly how and when a virus will mutate. Focusing too much
on one suspect -- even a very likely suspect such as H5N1 -- may be a mistake.
We should not ... forget the fact that historically pandemics have evolved. We should
be building up the knowledge base and expanding the capabilities of making vaccines
Companies should expand their research on vaccine design, develop new classes of
drugs and improve tests to diagnose influenza.
The ability of these types of viruses to ultimately spread from birds to humans is a very
complex process involving multiple genetic evolutions. It's a complicated issue that is
very difficult to predict,
Pandemics happen.Sooner or later, it’s likely there will be one. But no-one can give a (probability).
Fauci ~ March 2006:
"Americans need to know that it is a threat, a real threat. It is an unpredictable infection,
a pandemic flu, which really means a kind of flu to which the American public or the whole
world, the global population has not been exposed to before. It is very different from the
"So you have to walk that balance of being prepared for something that may not come this
year, may not come next year, but sooner or later knowing the history of how pandemic flus
evolve over a period of time, over decades and decades, it will occur. So we need to be prepared."
Fauci: (2006 ?)
"I don't dismiss at all the notion that some people
bring up that it is conceivable that the way this virus is genetically
programmed, that no matter how much opportunity you give it, it'
s never going to be able to fully adapt itself to humans,"
"But since we don't know it, I think
it would be somewhat reckless to assume and say 'Ah, it's been
around so long, if it hasn't changed it will never change, let'
s just forget about it and go worry about something else.'
[true pandemic of avian flu ] Bigger threat than most?
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI (Sept.2005): Well, HIV is a big one. That's something that
even though it has a well defined, more limited way of spreading than influenza,
which spreads very easily, if you look at the impact of over 20 million people having
died already, 40 million people living with HIV, I would think that HIV right now is
something that trumps everything.
Fauci,2006 : H5N1 is currently the most likely pandemic candidate
Fauci : one reason flu doesn’t kill more people is that even a
strain as lethal as the current bird flu usually gets weaker as it
spreads. It is highly, highly likely that it will decrease its mortality and
its virulence for humans, because from an evolutionary standpoint, it
makes no sense for viruses to kill all their hosts,