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DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

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  • DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

    I believe this is the location of their village - Kafr Hanut. There is another Hanut further east in another governate, but this appears to fill the bill...
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    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

  • #2
    Re: Egyptian govt reports 2 human bird flu cases

    Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
    I believe this is the location of their village - Kafr Hanut. There is another Hanut further east in another governate, but this appears to fill the bill...
    [ATTACH]1190[/ATTACH]
    Yes, it is on the Nile and the earlier case was 12 miles north, also on the Nile.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Egyptian govt reports 2 human bird flu cases

      The earlier H5N1 is an exact match with positions 226-230 influenza B (QSGRI). The first indication of efficient transmission is a familial cluster, as described in the translation above.
      What is standing between the current cases and a more easily transmitted virus?

      .
      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Egyptian govt reports 2 human bird flu cases

        Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
        What is standing between the current cases and a more easily transmitted virus?

        .
        The earlier case was the first example of M230I in the Qinghai strain. It makes the H5N1 receptor binding domain look more like a human receptor binding domain. US NAMRU released the earlier sequence within a couple of days of confirmation. The sequence was public before the patient died. It will be interesting to see if the current cluster also has M230I. There are other changes circulating in the Qinghai strains in the Middle East, including S227N in Egypt. These acquisitions can recombine, and they have already been shown to synergize.

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        • #5
          Re: Egyptian govt reports 2 human bird flu cases

          So this will be a "wait & see" how well the key (QSGRI) fits the lock?

          .
          "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Egyptian govt reports 2 human bird flu cases

            Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
            So this will be a "wait & see" how well the key (QSGRI) fits the lock?

            .
            The current cluster is already the largest for Egypt.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

              This is too much like Dogubayazit....both timing and new genetic changes.

              .
              "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                The latest report from Reuters - see headlines thread - reports the cases were from a village near Zifta.

                Zifta is about 6 miles south of Kafr Hanut.

                .
                Last edited by AlaskaDenise; December 24, 2006, 03:23 AM.
                "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                  ...the three cases were from the same household, which houses an extended family of 33 people living together ...
                  This will certainly bear watching.

                  .
                  "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                    Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
                    This is too much like Dogubayazit....both timing and new genetic changes.

                    .
                    These are more links to Qinghai H5N1 migration. The question is how many bird / human cases are NOT being reported in the area.

                    Clusters may be a prerequisite for reporting / confirming.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                      If the 30F became ill on December 17th, then were the siblings infected via ducks or the 30 year old?

                      .
                      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                        my worry is what possible illness are the ones from around the world that are going to the haji might bring back with them.
                        Last edited by vinny; December 24, 2006, 11:22 AM.

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                        • #13
                          Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                          Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
                          If the 30F became ill on December 17th, then were the siblings infected via ducks or the 30 year old?
                          Exactly!!

                          And, really, the 30F (who has now died) was hospitalized on the 17th -- she may have been/probably was exhibiting symptoms even earlier than that.
                          ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                            Originally posted by niman
                            The question is how many bird / human cases are NOT being reported in the area.
                            Uh, lemme take a stab at that ... LOTS!!

                            (I know that's what you were implying, Doc -- just wanted to second that thought.)
                            ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: DISCUSSION - Hanut, Gharbiyah, Egypt - 12/23+

                              Theresa - your find about the NAMRU being next door to the hospital is great. Not only does the NAMRU do great work, but now they'll have the best possible circumstances for testing (perhaps even deposited from the air on their own property).

                              .
                              "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                              Comment

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