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Plan gouvernemental "Pand?mie grippale"
Governmental plan "Flu pandemic"
Objective
The present plan describes the action to be taken by the government with regard to the
risk of a flu pandemic, as well as the bird flu in animals and in humans which precedes it.
It has been drawn up by the government in Council to provide the appropriate planning
and preparation, surveillance and prevention, action and management of the
consequences in view of the increasing risk of a flu pandemic the A/H5N1 virus might
cause.
The term ?bird flu? indicates an illness occurring throughout the world only infecting (wild
or domestic) birds but which can affect other animal species such as pigs, horses and
cats. In exceptional circumstances, the bird flu virus can be transmitted from animals to
humans (close, repeated and prolonged contact with infected animals, with their
excrement or with infected animal products). The ?flu pandemic? is a particular form of
human flu which could occur on a world scale following an adaptive mutation of the bird
flu virus or a reassortment of the influenza A virus which would permit human-to-human
transmission.
The objective is to
- contain the propagation of bird flu in animals, or at least to slow down that
propagation, in order to limit the risk of transmission from animals to humans and
thus to avoid human casualties and economic losses;
- contain the propagation of a flu pandemic, or at least to slow down that propagation,
not only in order to minimise the number of sick persons, but also to gain time while
awaiting the optimisation of specific vaccines;
- provide the best medical treatment possible;
- enable management of the consequences, in particular in the socio-economic field.
The plan describes the risks associated with these phenomena, as well as the measures
the government intends to apply to achieve its objective. These measures are greatly
inspired by those planned in France. At the present time, there is close cooperation with
Belgium and Germany, and within the European Union.
For the risks, there are plans for:
- constant monitoring at all levels,
- continuous interministerial analysis,
and, for the elaboration and implementation of measures:
- interministerial coordination,
- coordination between the public sector and the private sector,
- total transparency,
- harmonisation with the actions of neighbouring countries.
In order to guarantee maximum efficiency in its implementation, the plan will be
continually adapted, in particular in relation to the evolution of scientific knowledge in the
medical and veterinary fields. Its application will be gradual, depending upon the
evolution of the epizootic or pandemic on the ground.
History
Since the 16th century, approximately three pandemics have been documented per
century, at intervals of 10 to 50 years. That was particularly the case in the last century.
The Spanish flu (1918-1919) caused around 40 million deaths. Asian flu (1957-1958)
and the Hong Kong flu (1968-1969) cost the lives of approximately 1 million people.
By way of comparison, seasonal flu claims 250,000 to 500,000 lives annually on a world
scale.
Risks
Bird flu is a threat since it is an infectious illness which can be accompanied by
complications liable to cause death. With this illness there is a potential for pandemic,
the triggering of which could very rapidly threaten the entire population. That potential
increases in particular by virtue of continuous geographic expansion and a raise in the
number of case among animals and humans.
The standard scenario for a pandemic provides that it will strike in several waves lasting
two to three months, with an interval of several months at least between two consecutive
waves. Within those waves, the pandemic will strike rapidly and without prior notice.
The second wave is usually more severe than the first.
In the absence of specific vaccines, the vulnerability of humans could be extremely high,
in particular as a consequence of the absence of immunity against a new viral strain.
Between three and six months will be required for the development of such a vaccine,
from the date of isolation of the new strain.
The impact would be felt in the form of morbidity, mortality and a high degree of
absenteeism. If these phenomena reach a certain threshold, the fear would arise of a
severe socio-economic crisis.
Certain circumstances could attenuate the impact. Medicine is better informed and
prepared than at the beginning of the last century. Hygiene and nutrition are far superior
to those after World War I.
Other circumstances could make the impact more serious. Vectors of propagation are
considerably more rapid and more intensive these days, especially aircraft. The quality
of medical care to which we are accustomed could be impossible to provide on a large
scale.
It is all the more important to do everything to slow down the propagation of a pandemic.
Risk depends on threat, vulnerability and impact. As in the case of a flu pandemic these
three factors could prove to be severe, and the associated risks must therefore be
considered important.
More available at
Governmental plan "Flu pandemic"
Plan gouvernemental "Pand?mie grippale"