Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

[Laidback Al]

The first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from China. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through March, 2007. Note this graph includes South Korea, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

The counts for 2007 include Nigeria and Laos. There may yet be more countries with human H5N1 cases in 2007.

[Laidback Al]

Through January of 2007, H5N1 has infected humans in 12 countries around the world. For 11 of the 12 see: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html

The 12th country is South Korea as noted in the post above.

Importantly, 7 of these 12 countries are included among the 20 most populous countries in the world. (marked in red in the the table below).




Worldatlas.com notes that there are currently 192 countries in the world. That means that about 6% (12) have reported human cases of H5N1 infection.

demographic information from: http://worldatlas.com/aatlas/populations/ctypopls.htm

[colormyquilt]

A question. Is the r2 at 0.9 due to the clusters? Actually, a second question. If the clusters continue, without increased size, will the r2 increase? Thanks

[Laidback Al]

R squared is a measure of correlation between the real data points and a mathematical equation defining the distribution of data points. The closer to 1.0, the better the correlation.

In simply terms, the number of the countries over the past several years infected with human H5N1 infections is starting to increase at an exponential rate defined by the equation noted on the graph.

To answer your question, the number of clusters within a country does not affect the numbers on this graph. A country is only counted once no matter how many cases or clusters are present.

I did post a graph about clusters at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...19&postcount=4

The same discussion for R squared applies to the cluster graph as well. That graph is showing the exponential growth of the number of clusters over time. Data for that graph only includes how many clusters occurred in a particular year. It does not matter if the cluster has 2 individuals or 8 individuals, it is only counted once. So, for that graph changing cluster size would have no effect on the R squared value.

[MHSC]

Great job Al!

[Laidback Al]

As noted in post #1, the first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from China. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through December 31, 2007. Note this graph includes South Korea, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

In 2007, four new countries first reported confirmed human H5N1 cases; Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Note that Pakistan is the 6th most populous country in the world (see table in Post #2).

In the past few days, two suspected human cases of H5N1 have been reported in West Bengal in India, the second most populated country in the world.
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...9&postcount=45

[sharon sanders]

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

12 December 2008

Country	2003		2004		2005		2006		2007		2008		Total
	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths	cases	deaths
Azerbaijan	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	0	0	0	0	8	5
Bangladesh	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Cambodia	0	0	0	0	4	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	8	7
China	1	1	0	0	8	5	13	8	5	3	3	3	30	20
Djibouti	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Egypt	0	0	0	0	0	0	18	10	25	9	7	3	50	22
Indonesia	0	0	0	0	20	13	55	45	42	37	22	18	139	113
Iraq	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	3	2
Lao People's Democratic Republic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	2
Myanmar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Nigeria	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
Pakistan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	3	1
Thailand	0	0	17	12	5	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	25	17
Turkey	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	4	0	0	0	0	12	4
Viet Nam	3	3	29	20	61	19	0	0	8	5	5	5	106	52
Total	4	4	46	32	98	43	115	79	88	59	39	29	390	246

Total number of cases includes number of deaths.
WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.
All dates refer to onset of illness.



http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html

[lbeastwest]

Originally Posted by Laidback Al

The first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from China. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through March, 2007. Note this graph includes South Korea, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

The counts for 2007 include Nigeria and Laos. There may yet be more countries with human H5N1 cases in 2007.

Attachment 1448

Does anyone know of an updated version of this graph for 2008 and where I could locate this graph? Thank you, Les

[sharon sanders]

Welcome Les.

That graph is an original by Laidback Al. We will see if he still has the template to produce an updated graph.

Thanks for participating!

[Laidback Al]

Originally Posted by lbeastwest

Does anyone know of an updated version of this graph for 2008 and where I could locate this graph? Thank you, Les

Welcome to FluTrackers.

From the WHO tabled posted by Florida1 above you can see that in 2008 only one new country has reported human H5N1 infections, Bangladesh. I have updated the graph.


Edited note: January 3, 2009. The following graph includes all of 2008.

[Laidback Al]

In 2009, no new countries reported human H5N1 infections. Bangladesh, in 2008, was the most recent country to report its first human cases of H5N1.