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Why Shutting Airports Is Not The Best Way To Halt A Global Flu Pandemic
In a deadly flu outbreak, shutting airports should reduce the spread of the disease. But networks scientists have discovered a better approach that's just as effective
KFC 05/17/2012
One of the nightmare scenarios for modern society is the possibility of a global flu pandemic like the 1918 Spanish influenza which infected about a quarter of the global population and killed as many as 130 million of them.
An important question for policy makers is how best to limit the spread of such a disease if a new outbreak were to occur. (The Spanish flu was caused by the H1N1 flu virus that was also responsible for the 2009 swine flu outbreak.)
One obvious idea is to close international airports to prevent, or at least dramatically reduce, the movement of potentially infected individuals between countries. But is this the best approach?
Today, Jose Marcelino and Marcus Kaiser at Newcastle University in the UK, provide an answer. They say a better approach is to cut specific flights between airports because it can achieve the same reduction in the spread of the disease with far less drastic action.
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Critical paths in a metapopulation model of H1N1: Efficiently delaying influenza spreading through flight cancellation
Jose Marcelino, Marcus Kaiser
(Submitted on 15 May 2012)
Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel restrictions for major airports or network hubs based on the total number of passengers of an airport. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal, cancelling targeted flight connections rather than restricting traffic for network hubs, for controlling spreading over the airline network. We employ a SEIR metapopulation model that takes into account the population of cities, simulates infection within cities and across the network of the top 500 airports, and tests different flight cancellation methods for limiting the course of infection. The time required to spread an infection globally, as simulated by a stochastic global spreading model was used to rank the candidate control strategies. The model includes both local spreading dynamics at the level of populations and long-range connectivity obtained from real global airline travel data. Simulated spreading in this network showed that spreading infected 37% less individuals after cancelling a quarter of flight connections between cities, as selected by betweenness centrality. The alternative strategy of closing down whole airports causing the same number of cancelled connections only reduced infections by 18%. In conclusion, selecting highly ranked single connections between cities for cancellation was more effective, resulting in fewer individuals infected with influenza, compared to shutting down whole airports. It is also a more efficient strategy, affecting fewer passengers while producing the same reduction in infections.
The network of connections between the top 500 airports is available under the resources link on our website this http URL
Comments: The network of connections between the top 500 airports is available under the resources link on our website this http URL Flight connections for the top 500 airports, based on total passenger volume, worldwide. The existence of flight connections between airports is based on flights within one year from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008
Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Social and Information Networks (cs.SI); Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
Journal reference: PLoS Currents Influenza 2012 Apr 23
DOI: 10.1371/4f8c9a2e1fca8
Cite as: arXiv:1205.3245v1 [physics.soc-ph]
Submission history
From: Marcus Kaiser [view email]
[v1] Tue, 15 May 2012 03:19:55 GMT (1131kb)
In a deadly flu outbreak, shutting airports should reduce the spread of the disease. But networks scientists have discovered a better approach that's just as effective
KFC 05/17/2012
One of the nightmare scenarios for modern society is the possibility of a global flu pandemic like the 1918 Spanish influenza which infected about a quarter of the global population and killed as many as 130 million of them.
An important question for policy makers is how best to limit the spread of such a disease if a new outbreak were to occur. (The Spanish flu was caused by the H1N1 flu virus that was also responsible for the 2009 swine flu outbreak.)
One obvious idea is to close international airports to prevent, or at least dramatically reduce, the movement of potentially infected individuals between countries. But is this the best approach?
Today, Jose Marcelino and Marcus Kaiser at Newcastle University in the UK, provide an answer. They say a better approach is to cut specific flights between airports because it can achieve the same reduction in the spread of the disease with far less drastic action.
...
Critical paths in a metapopulation model of H1N1: Efficiently delaying influenza spreading through flight cancellation
Jose Marcelino, Marcus Kaiser
(Submitted on 15 May 2012)
Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel restrictions for major airports or network hubs based on the total number of passengers of an airport. Here, we test alternative strategies using edge removal, cancelling targeted flight connections rather than restricting traffic for network hubs, for controlling spreading over the airline network. We employ a SEIR metapopulation model that takes into account the population of cities, simulates infection within cities and across the network of the top 500 airports, and tests different flight cancellation methods for limiting the course of infection. The time required to spread an infection globally, as simulated by a stochastic global spreading model was used to rank the candidate control strategies. The model includes both local spreading dynamics at the level of populations and long-range connectivity obtained from real global airline travel data. Simulated spreading in this network showed that spreading infected 37% less individuals after cancelling a quarter of flight connections between cities, as selected by betweenness centrality. The alternative strategy of closing down whole airports causing the same number of cancelled connections only reduced infections by 18%. In conclusion, selecting highly ranked single connections between cities for cancellation was more effective, resulting in fewer individuals infected with influenza, compared to shutting down whole airports. It is also a more efficient strategy, affecting fewer passengers while producing the same reduction in infections.
The network of connections between the top 500 airports is available under the resources link on our website this http URL
Comments: The network of connections between the top 500 airports is available under the resources link on our website this http URL Flight connections for the top 500 airports, based on total passenger volume, worldwide. The existence of flight connections between airports is based on flights within one year from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008
Subjects: Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Social and Information Networks (cs.SI); Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
Journal reference: PLoS Currents Influenza 2012 Apr 23
DOI: 10.1371/4f8c9a2e1fca8
Cite as: arXiv:1205.3245v1 [physics.soc-ph]
Submission history
From: Marcus Kaiser [view email]
[v1] Tue, 15 May 2012 03:19:55 GMT (1131kb)