Announcement

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 08:06 AM

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/Sandy_rainfall.gif

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 08:08 AM

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Web Site Not Found

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 08:16 AM

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

October 25, 2012 7:5

Hurricane Sandy has potential to be super storm for U.S.

Hurricane Sandy is lashing the Caribbean, and has the potential to become a super storm for the eastern United States next week.

Sandy made landfall in Cuba overnight as a Category 2 storm with top winds of 114 miles an hour. The hurricane is blamed for at least two deaths in the region.

The hurricane slammed directly into the island of Jamaica, crashing a boulder into a man's clapboard house and taking his life. Skirting past Haiti, the heavy downpour swelled a river, sweeping away a woman as she tried to cross it.

High winds and rough surf are already pressing the South Florida coast, but if Sandy continues to grow, the Sunshine State may see tropical storm winds as early as Thursday night.

... We're talking about a Category 2 storm. It's emerging from the Cuban coastline now. It's about 185 miles south of the Central Bahamas and the thinking is today, tonight and tomorrow the storm is going to maintain hurricane intensity as it moves through the Bahamas. That's why we could see these tropical storm force conditions in South Florida, but beyond that as we go into the weekend, we'll look for this storm to continue to parallel the East Coast, and possibly be somewhere off of the New England or northeast coastline maybe just east of the Delmarva (Peninsula) as well, Sunday night into Monday and that's when things could definitely get tricky."

Read more + video:

Page Not Found: 404 Not Found -

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57539880/hurricane-sandy-has-potential-to-be-super-storm-for-u.s/

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 08:20 AM

Re: Tropical storm Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 251157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...81 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 967 MB...
28.55 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/251157.shtml?

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 09:16 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Jamaica -

Hurricane Sandy: Giant waves Palisadoes

<IFRAME height=360 src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/DZbNhclli_o" frameBorder=0 width=640 allowfullscreen></IFRAME>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZbNhclli_o

Hurricane Sandy batters Jamaica leaving one dead

<IFRAME height=360 src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Y9lmOp3xoN0" frameBorder=0 width=640 allowfullscreen></IFRAME>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9lmOp3xoN0

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 12:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Halloween Horror: Hurricane Sandy Could Be 'Billion-Dollar Storm'

by Mark Memmott


<TIME datetime="2012-10-25">October 25, 2012 7:24 AM</TIME>
...
With Hurricane Sandy coming from the South, an early winter storm bearing down from the West and arctic air sweeping in from the North, the mid-Atlantic, New England and eastern Canada should be prepared for a "perfect storm" early next week that could produce $1 billion or more in damage, warns Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters.

According to The Associated Press:

"The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.
" 'It'll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,' said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. 'We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.'
"It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear."

Comparisons are already being made to the "perfect storm" of 1991.

More...

Halloween Horror: Hurricane Sandy Could Be 'Billion-Dollar Storm'

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/10/25/163607781/halloween-horror-hurricane-sandy-could-be-billion-dollar-storm

The hurricane is moving up from the South. A winter storm is coming from the West. Cold air is moving down from the North. Next Monday to Wednesday could be tough for much of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Eastern Canada. Remember the "perfect storm?"

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 09:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Hurricane Sandy whips Bahamas after killing 21 elsewhere

By Jeff Todd, Associated Press October 25, 2012 10:13 PM

NASSAU, Bahamas -- Hurricane Sandy lashed the central Bahamas on Thursday night with violent winds and torrential rains, after raging through the Caribbean where it caused at least 21 deaths and forced postponement of a hearing at the Guantanamo naval base on Cuba.

State media in Cuba said Sandy toppled houses, ripped off roofs and killed 11 people in the eastern provinces of Santiago and Guantanamo as it roared over the island as a Category 2 storm early Thursday. Nine deaths were reported in Haiti and one in Jamaica.

Meanwhile, forecasters warned that Sandy will likely blend with a winter storm to cause a super storm in the eastern U.S. next week whose effects will be felt along the entire Atlantic Coast from Florida to Maine and inland to Ohio.

Read more:

Montreal Gazette

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/world/Hurricane+Sandy+whips+Bahamas+after+killing+elsewhere/7449027/story.html

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 09:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Worst Storm in 100 Years Seen Coming for NE U.S.

By Brian K. Sullivan on October 25, 2012

Hurricane Sandy will probably grow into a ?Frankenstorm? that may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years if current forecasts are correct.

Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England Hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland.

?What we?re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,? Kocin said in a telephone interview. ?We?re not trying to hype it, this is what we?re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.?

The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go ashore in New Jersey on Oct. 30, although landfall predictions often change as storms get closer to shore.

?If the storm follows the current hurricane center forecast, we are looking at over $5 billion in damage,? said Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. in Silver Spring, Maryland.

Read more...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-25/u-dot-s-dot-east-from-washington-to-nyc-at-risk-from-hurricane-sandy

**Pathfinder** · October 25, 2012, 10:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 260255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/260255.shtml?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY
HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THE
EYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
RISEN TO 968 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

SANDY HAS BEGUN ITS ANTICIPATED LEFT TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 335/11. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTER
THAT...A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.
AFTER 72 HR...SANDY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE
WESTWARD POSITION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
OTHERWISE...THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE STARTS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS EARLY
AS 96 HR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR IT WILL HAVE PROCEEDED
BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THUS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE POST-TROPICAL IN 120 HR...WITH A VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION TO THE FIRST 36 HR DUE
TO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.3N 76.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/260311.shtml?

**Pathfinder** · October 26, 2012, 08:37 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

000
WTNT33 KNHC 261153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/261153.shtml

**Pathfinder** · October 26, 2012, 08:48 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Environment Canada

Tropical Cyclone Information Statements 

WOCN31 CWHX 261145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the CanadianHurricane Centre of Environment Canada
at 8:41 AM ADT Friday26 October 2012.
</PRE>
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada. An updated
Statement is planned for 3 PM ADT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy will be moving through the Bahamas today with winds
in excess of 120 km/h. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to track
northward while remaining at or near hurricane strength. Sandy will
begin to lose some of its tropical characteristics during the next
two days, it will however remain a large and powerful cyclone as it
shifts toward the East Coast of the United States.

Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the weekend.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html

**Pathfinder** · October 26, 2012, 08:57 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

Hurricane Sandy lashing east Central Florida coast
Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph at the beaches, forecasters said.

By Arelis R. Hern?ndez, Orlando Sentinel
8:59 a.m. EDT, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is lashing the eastern coast of Florida with strong winds and high surf topping 10 feet in some areas as squalls of moderate to heavy rain move inland toward Orlando.

The churning storm is about 200 miles off the Florida coast but its outer bands are bringing fast-moving rain showers with wind gusts peaking at 35 mph inland and exceeding 50 mph at the beaches.

Widespread rain will start and end sporadically throughout the day with rain totals up to three inches in the interior counties and up to six inches in coastal regions through Friday night.

Read more:

Page not found – Orlando Sentinel

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-hurricane-sandy-orlando-weather-20121026,0,5703764.story

**Pathfinder** · October 26, 2012, 09:01 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

http://www.meteo.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_nam_1070_100.jpg

**Pathfinder** · October 26, 2012, 10:54 AM

Re: Hurricane Sandy: watches and warnings issued

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Hurricane Sandy kills 21, heads towards the U.S.

</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></B>By Dr. Jeff Masters

Published: 3:34 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

...
<B>Severe impacts likely in the U.S.<BIG></BIG></B>
Sandy's expected landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster. Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast, and the storm may be moving slowly enough that these conditions will persist for a full 24 hours. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The latest H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the destructive potential of the storm surge much higher, at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. With Sandy's strongest winds expected to last at least 12 hours near the time of landfall, the peak storm surge will affect the coast for at least one high tide cycle, and possibly two. This will greatly increase the potential for storm surge damage and coastal erosion. If Sandy hits Long Island, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of over-topping the flood walls in Manhattan and flooding portions of the New York City subway system. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains is also a huge concern. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will occur over several hundred mile-long swath of coast, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible. Fortunately, soils are dry and river levels are low over most of the threatened region, which should keep Sandy's river flooding lower than that experienced last year during Hurricane Irene. Nevertheless, Sandy is shaping up to be a historic storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. that has few precedents.

Jeff Masters

Full text:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Announcement

Hurricane Sandy: at least 69 deaths in the Caribbean, 113 in U.S., 2 in Canada

Hurricane Sandy: at least 69 deaths in the Caribbean, 113 in U.S., 2 in Canada

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