Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

[sharon sanders]

Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Recession:

1) Based on 1918 "severity",

2) Consumer demand to shrink by 3 months during pandemic,

3) Uses national attack rate of 30% and CFR of 2.5%,

4) Assumes a one year loss of productivity from those that die,

5) Assumes a 3 week loss of productivity from those that recover,

6) Makes some assumptions about various industries and their ability to economically function in a pandemic. For instance the arts and entertainment industry would suffer an 80% decrease in demand, but the government sector would not suffer any decrease.

Some of these assumptions are faulty. For instance, they estimate a zero percent change in demand for real estate.

Florida would be hit very hard due to the projected 80% drop in demand for "accomodations". The Florida legislature should consider buying tamiflu offered by the federal government buying program.

http://healthyamericans.org/reports/flurecession/FluRecession.pdf

[LMonty]

Re: Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

uhhh, I know I'm kinda ignorant about the way they structure these predicitons- but does a one year loss of productivity due to death strike anyone else as being a bit mild?

most dead people I know arent terribly productive EVER, not just for the next year....(although I have heard of them voting in some juristicions!)

I dont get it!

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

Excellent point LMonty.

Years of potential life lost (YPLL)--what does it measure?

• Gardner JW,
• Sanborn JS.

Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, F. Edward Hebert School of Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD 20814-4799.

The concept of years of potential life lost (YPLL) involves estimating the average time a person would have lived had he or she not died prematurely. This measure is used to help quantify social and economic loss owing to premature death, and it has been promoted to emphasize specific causes of death affecting younger age groups. YPLL inherently incorporates age at death, and its calculation mathematically weights the total deaths by applying values to death at each age. The method of calculating YPLL varies from author to author, each producing different rankings of leading causes of premature death. One can choose between heart disease, cancer, or accidents as the leading cause of premature death, depending on which method is used. Confusion in the use of this measure stems from a misunderstanding of the value system inherent in the calculation, as well as from differing views as to values that should be applied to each age at death.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&list_uids=2083312&cmd

[4-ABBA]

Re: Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Recession:

1) Based on 1918 "severity",

2) Consumer demand to shrink by 3 months during pandemic,

3) Uses national attack rate of 30% and CFR of 2.5%,

4) Assumes a one year loss of productivity from those that die,

5) Assumes a 3 week loss of productivity from those that recover,

6) Makes some assumptions about various industries and their ability to economically function in a pandemic. For instance the arts and entertainment industry would suffer an 80% decrease in demand, but the government sector would not suffer any decrease.

Some of these assumptions are faulty. For instance, they estimate a zero percent change in demand for real estate.

Florida would be hit very hard due to the projected 80% drop in demand for "accomodations". The Florida legislature should consider buying tamiflu offered by the federal government buying program.

http://healthyamericans.org/reports/...uRecession.pdf

I was going to respond to your original post, but was so flustered by the begining set of the study's assumptions that I decided I better chew on my hat instead.

[Niko]

Re: Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

Some of these assumptions are faulty.


http://healthyamericans.org/reports/...uRecession.pdf

Some???

[scottmcpherson]

Re: Pan/Flu and US Recession - Pew Study

Let me come to the Trust's defense a little bit. They can't really exceed the Government's estimates, as the Federal worst-case scenario becomes the baseline everyone looks at. They have to work within that context although I feel confident Levi would exceed them if he felt it would produce the desired result.

Their materials are first-rate and they are on the same side we are. Now we have a new, very defensible study that paints a very bleak economic picture and sends a strong message to public and private sectors both -- PREPARE!!!

I used it in a speech to Florida-based electronics manufacturers here (TALLY)yesterday afternoon with great effect. None of the companies had begun their pandemic plans. I predict all will after hearing my remarks and those of the Trust. Plus, it is a thick report and makes a great prop!