Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

PNAS: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • PNAS: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    Published online before print November 26, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1208772109 PNAS November 26, 2012

    Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    Jeffrey Shamana,1 and
    Alicia Karspeckb

    + Author Affiliations

    aDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032; and
    bClimate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305

    Edited* by Aaron A. King, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, and approved October 25, 2012 (received for review May 23, 2012)

    Abstract

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003?2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.



  • #2
    Re: PNAS: Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    Source: http://www.latimes.com/news/science/...,4059029.story

    Model predicts flu outbreaks seven weeks out using Google search data
    By Jon Bardin
    November 26, 2012, 2:46 p.m.

    A new statistical model, built on search data from Google and principles from weather modeling, can predict flu outbreaks up to seven weeks in advance.

    The results, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, signify a transition in the study of infectious disease from modeling past outbreaks and events to predicting future ones...

    Comment

    Working...
    X