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2012-13 Selected Flu Indicator Charts - Through Week 52
2012-13 Selected Flu Indicator Charts - Through Week 52
Here are some ILI charts from Week 49, showing some pretty striking trends, especially when compared with levels observed over the past two to four seasons:
Alabama
Kansas
Missouri
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Attached Files
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Links to all of the USA states influenza surveillance reports and data for Week 49 can be found at this CDC link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
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Here are a few more. It's difficult to post links because some are screen captures that I have to resize in Paint. All are from State Health Dept. websites.
I must say that since I started following FluTrackers in the spring of 2009, I haven't seen so many ILI charts show sharp increases in the same 2 week period. I fear that we will start to see a sharp increase in hospitalizations nationally by the end of December.
Indiana
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
The information is specific to Georgia and Tennessee. Interesting comparison considering both are experiencing high ILI based on Google flu trends, but hospitalization rate is, thus far, different considerably.
Thanks for the link - it's fascinating that Google Trends does follow the other indicators very closely. Trends on Google probably show up a few weeks earlier than hospitalizations. I find that Google Trends are a very early indicator. Hospitalizations and fatalies are trailing indicators. Sadly, we will likely see spikes in fatalities in January and February.
The information is specific to Georgia and Tennessee. Interesting comparison considering both are experiencing high ILI based on Google flu trends, but hospitalization rate is, thus far, different considerably.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Not seeing any of this in California, as of yet! We are seeing much RSV, but not Influenza.
ILI can be from many things other than Influenza? Google Flu Trends has not even updated since the 11th of December! I do not know if they are a good barometer either .
I will put our link on which I should have done so that you can see the comparison!
I believe that the MIdwest is seeing more ILI's due to the drought conditions and weather patterns.
Whilst there isnt any hard data I can quote giving the percentage of flu sufferers who go on to develop secondary problems, in general, it is well recognised (i.e there are a lot of studies) that a large proportion of hospitalisations from flu are as a result of secondary sequelae i.e pneumonia and exacerbation of CV problems from reduced lung function. On the basis of these assumptions, it should be expected that there would be a 7 - 14 day lag time between flu trends data and hospitalisation data, if we assume that onset of flu like symptoms occurs first i.e symptomatic with flu for approximately 3 - 5 days with secondary infections developing thereafter. |It would take a few days of bacterial infection (in many cases) before patients became sufficiently ill to warrant hospitalistion - although there would always be exceptions.
Google Flu Trends data is now in for the period up to and including the 16th December, and is worth a look to compare and contrast to the graphs above. Sorry JimO - I dont know how to embed these...
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For those unfamiliar with this data, Flu Trends is simply a measure of online searches for flu and flu related terms e.g. flu symptoms, flu treatments etc. It does not provide any indication of severity ( hospitalisation data and GP consultations give a better indication of this). It is more likely to reflect the numbers of individuals who are symptomatic and needing to take medications for symptomatic relief of cold, flu or other respiratory viruses e.g. paracetomol.
Simply click on a state to see the trends for an individual state - the link above takes you to an overview of the US.
Also of note that flu trends data will include all ILIs - and it wont necessarily all be flu, but would include coughs, colds and other respiratory viruses. That said, the SE states of the US would appear to be suffering a higher incidence of influenza like illnesses right now than during the peak of the 2009 pandemic. Areas under the curve look greater than the entire 2009 - 2010 season in these south eastern states.
Thanks Vibrant. Here is the Google Trends National chart. I'll be posting state ILI charts for Week 50 soon. Based on the trajectory of the data for this year compared with others, it's going to be a really rough flu season.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
It seems to be the same story all over, with the South and Midwest a week or two ahead of the rest of the country. The season seems to be shaping up to be the worst overall flu season in a decade. It is still to be seen if the H3N2 that is dominant in most places will be as deadly as the 2009pdmH1N1 in 2009-10. More to follow.
Alabama
Colorado
Indiana
Kansas
Maine
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
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