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  • Nigeria: 130 Farms Positive - WHO

    http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0206/301094.html

    Deadly Bird Flu Found in Nigeria



    - LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) - The deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected on a large commercial chicken farm in Nigeria - the first reported outbreak in Africa, the World Organization for Animal Health said Wednesday. The outbreak appears to be restricted to birds, and no human infections have been reported, the Paris-based organization said.

    Nigeria said the outbreak was on a farm in Jaji, a village in the northern state of Kaduna. Agriculture (website</B> - news</B>) Minister Adamu Bello told reporters in Abuja that the deadly strain of the virus was detected in samples taken Jan. 16 from birds on the farm.


    "We are dealing with a new continent," said Alex Thiermann, an expert for the World Organization for Animal Health, known as the OIE, told The Associated Press.

    Bird flu began ravaging poultry stocks across Asia in 2003, forcing the slaughter of more than 100 million birds and jumping to humans. The World Health Organization has confirmed 88 deaths from bird flu out of a total of 165 cases of human infection. Almost all the cases have been in Asia, but the disease recently has been detected in Europe and the Middle East.

    Though all the people who contracted the disease so far are believed to have been infected through contact with sick birds, experts are concerned the disease could mutate into a form easily spread from human to human, potentially triggering a global pandemic.

    Experts have long been concerned about Africa's ability to deal with a bird flu outbreak. Thiermann noted that some African countries have "very weak" veterinary systems.

    Thiermann said all 46,000 birds on the Nigerian farm have been killed and their bodies disposed of, and Nigerian authorities have banned the movement of birds and people from the farm. Officials also are investigating whether birds were transferred to other farms in the past 21 days, and they, too, are being quarantined, he said.

    "We feel that they are doing everything they can and they certainly need help," he said.

    Additional protective clothing was being moved Wednesday from Senegal to Nigeria, he said.

    Experts had suspected that migrating wild birds could spread the disease to Africa, said Thiermann, noting that Nigeria is on a "major flyway."

    A laboratory in Padua, Italy, identified the H5N1 strain in the Nigerian birds, OIE said in a statement. It added further tests were being carried out to determine how closely the Nigerian strain matched the H5N1 strain detected elsewhere in the world.

    The Italian Health Ministry said the bird flu strain is very similar to those found in Siberia and Mongolia.

    The OIE said it was working with the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization to "coordinate a common response to this event."

    A team of experts to assess and provide technical advice will leave for Nigeria toward the end of this week, said Thiermann, who is a special adviser to the OIE's director.

    Health officials had feared a deadly bird flu virus could enter impoverished, loosely governed African regions, where many people raise chickens at home for personal consumption.

    Nigerian officials said Wednesday that initial tests on chickens that mysteriously died in Kano, a state neighboring Kaduna, showed no signs of bird flu. Salihu Jibrin, head of the state's livestock department said at least 60,000 birds have died in Kano state in recent weeks. Tests were ongoing.

    Nigerian authorities nevertheless urged farmers to monitor their flocks and report strange ailments to authorities. Kano set up a committee of veterinary surgeons to visit farms and watch out for evidence of a bird flu outbreak after some poultry farms reported large-scale bird deaths last week.

    Large-scale poultry farms aside, many Nigerian families live in close quarters with chickens and other fowl, which are an important food source. The birds generally are kept with other domestic animals at night but are allowed to roam freely during the day.

    Controlling the spread of the virus could be particularly difficult in Africa, where central governments often exert little control in far-flung rural areas most likely to have people keeping fowl in their homes.

    ---

    Associated Press reporter John Leicester in Paris contributed to this report.
    Last edited by Extra; February 22, 2006, 08:53 PM.

  • #2
    H5N1 kills 40,000 birds on Nigerian farm

    Avian flu found in Africa, has killed 40,000 birds on Nigerian farm

    BY SHASHANK BENGALI

    Knight Ridder Newspapers

    http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/du...d/13822778.htm

    NAIROBI, Kenya - A deadly strain of bird flu has been discovered on a poultry farm in northern Nigeria, health officials said Wednesday, marking the virus's first known appearance in Africa.

    A "highly pathogenic" form of the H5N1 virus has killed 40,000 birds in the rural Nigerian state of Kaduna, according to the World Organization for Animal Health, a United Nations agency. No humans have been infected, the agency said.

    The announcement confirmed predictions that the virus, which has turned up in the Middle East and Eastern Europe in recent months, would land in Africa eventually, the region that experts fear might be the most vulnerable to a bird flu pandemic.

    Millions of Africans live in close proximity to animals, and the continent's health systems lack the capacity to control an outbreak. Nigeria is particularly at risk because of its large commercial poultry industry. Millions of Nigerians raise birds in their backyards, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Bird flu rarely infects humans, but close contact with sick birds increases the chances of people catching it. Health experts are concerned that the virus will mutate into a strain that passes easily between people, sparking a global pandemic.

    The H5N1 virus has killed at least 88 of the 165 people known to have been infected with it. Nearly all those cases have been in East Asia, though deaths have been recorded recently in Turkey and northern Iraq.

    The U.N. agency said Nigerian authorities had killed and disposed of the infected birds and had quarantined the area. The agency said it would send experts to the region to provide assistance.

    "If the situation in Nigeria gets out of control, it will have a devastating impact on the poultry population in the region, it will seriously damage the livelihoods of millions of people and it will increase the exposure of humans to the virus," Samuel Jutzi, the organization's director of animal production and health, said in a statement.

    Late Wednesday, Nigeria's tiny neighbor Benin announced a ban on all imports of poultry and poultry products from Nigeria.

    The virus was discovered by a laboratory in Italy in samples taken Jan. 16 from birds on the Nigerian farm, which housed chickens, ostriches and geese, the U.N. agency said. It said scientists still were analyzing how closely the Nigerian strain matched those from other known outbreaks.

    Nigerian authorities also were investigating the deaths of about 60,000 birds in the neighboring state of Kano. Preliminary tests have ruled out bird flu, but authorities said they were conducting more.

    World health officials began sounding warnings about Africa's risk of bird flu in October, saying that migrating birds harboring the virus were likely to arrive in Africa during the winter. A U.N.-sponsored conference last month in Beijing raised $2 billion in pledges to help poor countries in Africa and Southeast Asia beef up their veterinary health and monitoring systems.

    Comment


    • #3
      Nigeria has Africa's first H5N1 bird flu outbreak

      Nigeria has Africa's first H5N1 bird flu outbreak

      http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/con...0806avflu.html

      Feb 8, 2006 (CIDRAP News)

      ? The H5N1 virus has materialized deep in Africa, killing about 40,000 poultry on a commercial farm in northern Nigeria, according to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

      Tests at an OIE reference laboratory in Padova, Italy, yesterday confirmed the presence of H5N1 as the culprit in an outbreak that began nearly a month ago, on Jan 10, the OIE report said.

      The virus was found in samples drawn Jan 16 from a farm in Jaji, in the northern state of Kaduna, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The Italian Health Ministry said the strain confirmed there is similar to strains found in Siberia and Mongolia in 2005, the AP said.

      The Jaji farm is the only confirmed outbreak site so far, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a statement today. "Investigations are urgently needed to determine whether the outbreak, which began almost a month ago, has spread from the farm to affect household flocks," the agency said.

      "Poultry deaths in the adjacent province of Kano have been reported, but the cause has not yet been determined," the WHO added.

      Although published reports conflict, the AP quoted Salihu Jibrin, head of the Kano state's livestock department, as saying that at least 60,000 birds have died there in recent weeks. Testing was being conducted, but officials told the AP today that no signs of avian flu had been found.

      Another source, South Africa's Independent Online, reported yesterday that poultry began dying in unusually high numbers last weekend at the Sovat farm in Danbare village in Kano.

      The OIE is sending a team to Jaji in Kaduna state to assist in government quarantine efforts, Bloomberg News reported today.
      The arrival of H5N1 in Nigeria realizes one of the worst fears of experts, who have long warned that the spread of the virus into Africa could greatly complicate containment efforts. Backyard poultry live in close contact with people in many parts of Africa.

      "In Nigeria, as in other parts of Africa, most village households maintain free-ranging flocks of poultry as a source of income and food," the WHO said. "Close human contact with poultry is extensive."

      The primary public health need is to reduce the risk of human infections by preventing contact with diseased or dead household poultry, the WHO said. If the virus has spread to household flocks, people will need to be warned to avoid risky behavior, such as slaughtering sick poultry.

      The WHO said no clear information about the source of the Nigerian outbreak was available, but the country lies along a route for birds migrating from central Asia.

      Full sequence information about the outbreak virus is expected later this week, the WHO said. The information should help authorities assess the risk to human health and may shed light on the source of the outbreak.

      Authorities have expressed concerns about paying for and coordinating outreach, education, and other responses to avian flu in resource-strapped African countries, many of which are already battling hunger,HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases.

      Nigeria, which has 124 million people, has an average healthy life expectancy at birth of only 41 years, according to 2003 data from the WHO.

      See also:
      Feb 8 WHO statement on outbreak in Nigeria
      http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_08/en/index.html
      OIE report on Nigerian outbreak
      http://www.oie.int/Messages/060208NGA.htm
      WHO profile of Nigeria
      http://www.who.int/countries/nga/en/

      Comment


      • #4
        Africa's first birdflu case (Channel4 UK)

        Africa's first birdflu case


        A Nigerian man sells chickens on the streets of Lagos (Reuters)

        Published: 8 Feb 2006
        By: Julian Rush
        http://www.channel4.com/news/special...ge.jsp?id=1704

        Scientists fear Africa maybe the perfect environment for bird disease to transform to a human version.

        >>Watch the report

        The deadly H5N1 Bird flu virus - which has killed 88 people worldwide - has been confirmed in Africa for the first time.

        It's believed the outbreak started a month ago on a commercial farm in Nigeria - forty thousand chickens have already died.

        The disease spread in northern Nigeria - an infected chicken from Kaduna was first sent for testing in January - it apparently came from nearby Kano.

        The first African cases have prompted serious fears that the virus will now mutate and be transmissible between humans. Our science correspondent Julian Rush reports.
        Last edited by Manuel_Z; February 8, 2006, 05:47 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: H5N1 kills 40,000 birds on Nigerian farm

          NIGERIA: First confirmed cases of killer bird flu in Africa

          08 Feb 2006 18:36:33 GMT

          Source: IRIN
          http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/news...5250c9ff24.htm

          ABUJA, 8 February (IRIN) - Tens of thousands of chickens have died of the killer bird flu virus in northern Nigeria, the first confirmed cases of H5N1 in Africa, the International Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Wednesday.

          Tests revealed that 40,000 birds had died of the H5N1 virus at a poultry farm in a village in the northern state of Kaduna, Maria Zampaglione of the Paris-based OIE told IRIN by telephone.

          "An outbreak has been detected," Zampaglione said. "A local poultry farm keeping 46,000 birds was affected, of which 42,000 were infected and 40,000 of those, died."

          Though Nigerian authorities have only confirmed bird flu in Kaduna State, neighbouring Kano State has also reported high numbers of poultry deaths.

          The infected Kaduna birds were kept in battery cages in Jaji village, and so far no human cases of bird flu have been reported in Nigeria.

          Bird flu was first diagnosed in Asia in 2003, prompting a massive slaughter of commercial poultry before fatal cases began appearing in humans. So far most of the human deaths have been in Asia, but recently the H5N1 virus has killed in Iraq and Turkey.

          West Africa lies on the migratory path of birds that may already be affected with avian influenza. And the region is littered with ecologically important reserves where birds flock to seek warmth during the northern hemisphere winter.

          Late last month, as migratory birds fly to Africa, experts from 18 West African countries gathered in the Malian capital Bamako to draw up an action plan to deal with the threat of bird flu, putting US $120 million into the pot for surveillance of commercial and wild birds.

          Experts are fearful of an outbreak in Africa, because of the lack of veterinary services and a poor state capacity to deal with such outbreaks. Poultry meanwhile is an important and cheap source of protein for many people in Africa, where chickens typically roam freely around compounds in towns and villages.

          The OIE, which confirmed the Nigeria outbreak, together with the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), promised an immediate and coordinated response in a statement issued on Wednesday.
          Nigerian authorities have already imposed a quarantine, restricted animal movement inside the country, and begun to disinfect the affected farm, said the OIE statement.

          Nigeria is West Africa's most populous nation, with an estimated population of 110 million people. It is also a regional centre for trade and commerce with some of the region's largest ports and markets.
          "If the situation in Nigeria gets out of control, it will have a devastating impact on the poultry population in the region," warned Samuel Jutzi, Director of FAO's Animal Production and Health Division, in a Wednesday press release, "it will seriously damage the livelihoods of millions of people and it will increase the exposure of humans to the virus."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Bird Flu confirmed in Nigeria

            Here the Video link to Channel 4 UK news report on BF Africa

            Comment


            • #7
              Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

              Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria "spreading like wildfire"

              KADUNA, Nigeria (AFP) - As Nigeria scrambled to deal with Africa's first confirmed case of deadly bird flu, a farmer's representative said thousands of poultry had died of disease further north.

              Identified earlier this week as "fowl cholera", the disease was spreading rapidly through farms in Kano State, killing tens of thousands of chickens, Auwalu Haruna, secretary of the Kano State poultry farmers' association, said.

              Nigeria announced Wednesday that Africa's first confirmed case of the H5N1 strain of bird flu -- which can be fatal to humans -- had been found in Sambawa Farm in Kaduna State, 300 kilometres (185 miles) north of Abuja.

              The disease in Kano "is spreading like wildfire," Haruna told AFP.

              "We have 20,000 new infections reported today, bringing the figure for infected birds to 80,000. What worsens the situation is the movement of infected poultry, in a frantic effort to minimise losses," he said.

              Haruna and several market stall holders told AFP that once chickens are infected farmers are killing them and rapidly dumping them on the market in an effort to beat any future quarantine and make a quick profit.

              "The announcement by the federal government of bird flu at Sambawa Farm shocked us, but we are just waiting for confirmation from the veterinary institute in Vom for our birds," Haruna said.

              Prices of chickens in Kano have dropped by two thirds since thousands of birds began dying of the mystery infection.

              International experts from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation were expected to arrive in Nigeria on Thursday following the news of the bird flu outbreak.

              Nigeria's Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello promised Wednesday that a massive effort to quarantine farms and cull sick birds would be rapidly put into place to contain the outbreak, but there was no sign of that on the ground.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                Spreading H5N1 in Nigeria on updated map

                http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2006_AfricaF.html

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                  Nigerian bird flu outbreak spreads

                  http://www.africasia.com/services/ne...6.sstitf9j.php

                  Africa's first outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu has spread to at least four farms, Nigerian officials said Thursday, as the continent braced itself for a possible epidemic.
                  Nigerian agriculture ministry spokesman Tope Ajakaiye said tests on chicken carcasses had identified the H5N1 type of avian influenza, which can kill humans, in northern Nigerian sites more than 200 kilometres (125 miles) apart.
                  "Four farms have been cordoned off and quarantined; one in Kaduna, two near Kano and one in Plateau State," he told AFP.
                  Previously, officials had said that the disease had only been identified at Sambawa Farm near Kaduna, and Thursday's announcement will increase fears that bird flu may be poised to spread rapidly around the country.
                  At Sambawa farm itself, 300 kilometres (185 miles) north of Abuja, 20 police officers were deployed to block access to a site where 45,000 chickens are now known to have died from the highly infectious virus.
                  Kaduna State agriculture commissioner Lawal Yakawada told AFP that a team from Nigeria's National Veterinary Research Institute would arrive later in the day "to ensure that all the other chickens are killed, burned and buried".
                  Agriculture ministry officials in the capital Abuja said experts from the Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Health Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health were expected in Nigeria within 48 hours.
                  Ajaikaye also said that the United States had pledged 20 million dollars (16.7 million euros) to help Nigeria fight the outbreak.
                  Experts from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would come from their Kenya base and set up a laboratory in Nigeria, he said. They are to bring 2,000 protective suits for health and veterinary workers, he added.
                  Kaduna State and neighbouring Kano State have broadcast radio spots and sent education teams to farming areas to warn of the danger of bird flu.
                  Since the H5N1 strain of bird flu was first detected in Hong Kong in 1997, it has spread across south Asia into southeastern Europe and has been blamed for the deaths of 88 people who came into contact with sick birds.
                  Experts fear Africa, with its underfunded health services and populations weakened by AIDS and malnutrition, could now be facing a new epidemic, which would devastate poultry farming and encourage the virus to develop.
                  In the worst case scenario, if H5N1 mutates into a form which would be transmissible between humans, it could kill tens of millions of people.
                  A South African veterinary institute said Thursday it is to conduct tests on bird samples from Kenya, Malawi and Sudan to help track the possible spread of bird flu.
                  "We have been asked by the Food and Agricultural Organisation and the African Union to be a support laboratory for the African continent," said Celia Abolnik, senior researcher at Pretoria's Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute.
                  "We will be testing samples collected for surveillance on the African continent," she told AFP, adding that the samples should arrive in South Africa for testing in the next two weeks.
                  Experts have advised Nigeria and any country which subsequently identifies a bird flu outbreak to limit the movement of poultry, quarantine infected farms and destroy sick birds.
                  Nigeria has promised two billion naira (15-million-dollar/13-million-euro) to do just that and to compensate farmers for culled livestock, but health teams appeared to be slow to be getting into place Thursday.
                  Auwalu Haruna, secretary of the Kano State poultry farmers' association warned that farmers and traders were slaughtering sick birds and rushing them to market for cheap sale "in a frantic effort to minimise losses."
                  Meanwhile Kenya joined South Africa, Benin and Mauritania in banning all poultry imports from Nigeria and ordered stepped up surveillance measures aimed at preventing the spread of bird flu.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                    It seems that the battle on H5N1 spreading throughout the poultry population in Africa is lost. If it could not be contained in Asia it has no hope of being controlled in Africa. It would seem that efforts should be made to minimize the risk of human infection by stopping the sale of sick birds, perhaps closing markets, and eliminating backyard flocks. The West will have to step up to the table with some significant food aid as one way or another Africa is set to take a major hit to its very limited protein sources.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      2 more Nigerian States have H5N1

                      GR: What I would like to know is if this H5N1 has S227N.

                      Nigeria Says Deadly Bird Flu Spreading

                      By BASHIR ADIGUN
                      Associated Press Writer

                      February 9, 2006, 11:21 AM EST

                      ABUJA, Nigeria -- The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has been found in two more Nigerian states, the Agriculture Ministry said Thursday, a day after the country reported the first known outbreak of the virus in Africa.

                      The strain has been confirmed at two farms in Kano state and one in adjoining Plateau state, said Tope Ajakaiye, an Agriculture Ministry spokesman. Africa's first documented case was reported Wednesday in the northern state of Kaduna. No human infections have been reported in the country.

                      Nigeria ordered the quarantine and killing of any fowl suspected of carrying bird flu in hopes of halting its spread, officials said.

                      "The federal government is doing everything to contain the disease within the three centers that have been located," Ajakaiye said in a statement.

                      Bird farms across northern Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation with 130 million people, are now under quarantine, and a special assessment team traveled around the region Thursday, said Junaidu Maina, director of Nigeria's livestock department. He did not say to how many of Nigeria's 36 states were under the quarantine order.

                      Nigeria's Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello on Wednesday confirmed findings by the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health, known as the OIE, of an H5N1 outbreak on a commercial poultry farm in Kaduna.

                      The farm had a total of 46,000 chicken, geese and ostriches. About 40,000 of them died of bird flu and the other 6,000 were destroyed, according to OIE.

                      International experts from the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Health Organization and the OIE were to travel Friday to Nigeria to help, said Alex Thiermann, an OIE expert.

                      Bird flu began ravaging poultry across Asia in 2003, forcing the slaughter of more than 100 million birds. The virus jumped to humans, and the World Health Organization has confirmed 88 deaths from bird flu out of a total of 166 cases of human infection. Almost all the cases have been in Asia, but the disease recently has been detected in Europe and the Middle East.

                      Though all the people who contracted the disease so far are believed to have been infected through contact with sick birds, experts are concerned the disease could mutate into a form easily spread from human to human, potentially triggering a global pandemic.

                      Indonesia said Thursday that two women from the same town have contracted the virus.

                      China said Wednesday that a 26-year-old woman had bird flu -- the 11th known case in that country.

                      Sub-Saharan Africa, with about 600 million of the world's poorest people, is particularly ill-equipped to deal with a major health crisis. With weak and impoverished government institutions in regions where many people keep chickens for badly needed food, experts say any mass killings of the animals -- often a first step in controlling bird flu -- will be difficult to pull off.

                      The World Health Organization said Nigeria has a poultry population of about 140 million and that the country's overtaxed veterinary services needed international help, while calling on other African countries to act quickly against any suspected outbreaks.
                      Breaking News, data & opinions in business, sports, entertainment, travel, lifestyle, plus much more. Newsday.com is the leading news source for Long Island & NYC.
                      Last edited by Guest; February 9, 2006, 12:04 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                        it has no hope of being controlled in Africa
                        Controlled, no, but I wonder if there's any chance (grantedly remote) that it could get so bad so fast that it might actually burn itself out?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Worse Version Of Bird Flu Now In Africa

                          Worse Version Of Bird Flu Now In Africa
                          Save It Email It Print It
                          (AP) PARIS A "highly pathogenic" strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus has been found in poultry stocks in Nigeria - the first reported case of the disease in Africa, the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health said Wednesday.

                          Nigeria reported the outbreak in Jaji, a village in the northern Kaduna state, according to the organization known by the acronym OIE. OIE spokeswoman Maria Zampaglione said the outbreak was the first reported case of H5N1 in Africa.

                          Nigerian authorities officially notified the OIE on Wednesday about the outbreak, the agency said in a statement. The outbreak affected commercial, battery-cage poultry.

                          A laboratory in Padova, Italy, identified "a highly pathogenic H5N1 and has further analyzed its genetic composition. Investigations are being carried out in order to define the degree of genetic homology with the currently known H5N1 strains," said the statement.

                          Nigerian authorities have introduced quarantine measures and controls on the movement of animals and disinfected the infected farm, said the OIE.
                          Worse Version Of Bird Flu Now In Africa

                          It said it is working with the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization to coordinate its response to the outbreak.

                          "A team of experts will be sent to the affected area in order to assess the situation and provide technical advice," it said.

                          According to the World Health Organization, about 160 human cases of the virus have been reported worldwide, and at least 85 people have died. Almost all of those who died were in Asia, and most are believed to have come into contact with infected birds. The disease has also been found in humans in Turkey and Iraq, and in birds in Europe.

                          Experts fear the strain could mutate into a form easily transmissible from human to human and spark a worldwide pandemic
                          A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes. Mark Twain

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                            Originally posted by Susan
                            Controlled, no, but I wonder if there's any chance (grantedly remote) that it could get so bad so fast that it might actually burn itself out?
                            It will. But when and at what cost. What are the chances of it burning itself out before mutating to efficient H2H. The recent articles on the history of H5N1 in south China show that it can become endemic in the bird population and that birds will become asymptomatic carriers. The question is will it make the jump and when...many opinions but no correct answers to date imho. The issue is what to do about the H5N1 in the poultry population in Nigeria (Africa). Massive culling seems unlikely. Massive vaccinating is likely not practical or affordable. Likely there will be quarantining and restricting movement hoping that it will burn itself out in the areas that it erupts while trying to stop the spread.

                            Of course this is just speculation on my part but I don't see much else possible given the geo-economics of the area.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Bird disease in flu-hit Nigeria &quot;spreading like wildfire&quot;

                              The sad news is that many thought that the virus would and had burned itself out in China, and Some areas of SEAsia. Now we see in news reports that again the virus is popping up. Is this the secound wave as many have thought? We know that it is limited H2H. Close prox to birds and/or individuals that have prox to these individuals. How much farther has it gone down the road of recombining? As much as we all would like this monster to burn out... imo dreadfully no. It will only use it's own sweet time to make itself more quickly and easliy transfurable to humans. Now that it has gained purchase in Africa we will just have to watch, wait, and become more aware. IMO
                              A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes. Mark Twain

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