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Prev Med. 2013 Apr 26. pii: S0091-7435(13)00120-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.04.011. [Epub ahead of print]
Influenza H3N2 Variant Viruses with Pandemic Potential: Preventing Catastrophe in Remote and Isolated Canadian Communities.
Laskowski M, Duvurri VR, Buckeridge DL, Wu G, Wu J, Moghadas SM.
Source
Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v).
METHODS:
We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature.
RESULTS:
Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size.
CONCLUSIONS:
Demographics variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.
Copyright ? 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.
PMID:
23628518
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Influenza H3N2 Variant Viruses with Pandemic Potential: Preventing Catastrophe in Remote and Isolated Canadian Communities.
Laskowski M, Duvurri VR, Buckeridge DL, Wu G, Wu J, Moghadas SM.
Source
Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v).
METHODS:
We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature.
RESULTS:
Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size.
CONCLUSIONS:
Demographics variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.
Copyright ? 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.
PMID:
23628518
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
