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EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 5057 suspected cases since 03/2006

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  • EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control" / 5057 suspected cases since 03/2006

    Hat-tip to pugmom for finding this article! (Note that the article is a few days old.)

    Testing on suspected cases done AFTER Tamiflu treatment is started?! I hope not....


    Google-translated from Arabic:

    Egypt: Bird flu still out of control!
    June 9, 2007

    After the death of Dietary victim No. 15

    Investigation-Ange penguins

    Once again returned fears of avian flu after the girl moved habits surgeon beacon from the list of injured included 35 cases accepted to the list of victims who arrived after the 15 deaths. Mayyada is also the second case of child victims after the death of 15-year-old girl on April 4 last year.

    The discovery also serious injury came late, has entered Dietary pathogenesis of Qena hospital last Thursday suffering from a high temperature and pneumonia following exposure to birds suspected of being infected with bird flu disease, and the condition referred to the critical point, Luxor International Hospital were placed on the respirator industry however, she died yesterday at dawn Saturday.

    Death habits after illness bird flu re-opening the file of this killer virus raises fears of the vulnerability of children has become a victim of the lack of awareness by parents and their rejection by the inspection teams of veterinary mission where refuse entry to their homes or deny the upbringing of birds in the house, birds or hide inside living rooms so one of Aikthv presence, and refuse to fortify and vaccinated .. wrongs residents paid for now sons and their grandsons .. This prompts us to ask: When will respond Aviarists home with the efforts of the resistance? Why Aisareeton reporting on suspicion of injury to a family member exhibited symptoms of avian flu?

    Says Dr. Nasr Hamed chairman of the General Authority for Veterinary Services at the Ministry of Agriculture, said that there is an integrated plan to fight the disease involving 1200 veterinarian who vaccinated chickens against bird flu disease, have been provided with all the means and tools and vaccines needed for the vaccination, the Council of Ministers also adopted a hundred million pounds to the Ministry of Agriculture for this the purpose of financing the process of vaccinating the birds household and private farms in addition to working awareness against the dangers of this disease where veterinarian moves to the homes and vaccinate all domestic fowl birds inside, we have so far vaccinated about 900 million chickens ..

    But we face many difficulties in doing our work, especially in rural areas where we found some people hide chickens and of the weak awareness of the problem of why there must be an awareness of the people through the media, and even houses of worship to publicize the role of veterinarian in this area because it plays an important role in immunization. We must help parents and allow him to enter their homes to preserve the public health because this disease has moved from birds to humans and animals must be up to the itinerary of the disease to eliminate it completely. This will happen only allowing doctor veterinary vaccine for all indoor birds, but if found infected birds from the right do killing them but executing all birds in the surrounding area Qatar one kilometer and perhaps people refuse entry essentially even Aikthv Vivkaddou cases of infected birds that raise it is a source of income for them as well as material provided food for their families.

    But after the appearance of a village center habits critics Qena Governorate has moved teams fight for the village yesterday was the first execution of all birds found in this village has been cleared in full and village roads surrounding and there Aadinma 488 chickens and efforts are continuing to pursue the disease is not in Qena Governorate alone, but in all governorates.

    And cautions Dr. Naheed Ghneim deputy dean of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine of Higher Studies and Professor of common diseases among humans and animals to a harvest of children easier disease and avian influenza is the result of direct contact between the child and these birds, especially in rural areas, because adults may take a kind of cautious when dealing with the bird unlike young, who Ayoun gravity addition to the lack of sufficient to have immunity against the virus.

    Asserts we can protect ourselves from this disease cancel Education household final vaccinated birds or fowl, and adds that the conditions for a sound education to be rearing birds in parks separately and that each type away from the others, because ducks example retains the virus do not appear in inside the symptoms of the disease and helps to spread, and must these barns to be covered and away from the line of migratory birds and other domestic birds.

    As the housekeeper must deal with it is wearing a mask and is keen to change her clothes immediately after graduating from the hangar birds, as well as the need for continuous cleaning of the barns and immunization Permanent Teorha, as must the media to continue in the process of sensitization and Atre for intermittent, and the problem arises suddenly because the threat is still around.

    In the end talked Health Ministry official source who wished to remain anonymous, said: "The ministry has done symposia health education on the nature of the disease and methods of prevention through five thousand health units nationwide, and we have all the necessary medicines to hospitals and Viral Sadr alongside the publication of a definition of the disease and when the the suspects and evidence to pursue cases in which the disease was detected frequently in various places, the source pointed out the possibility of the emergence of new cases and deaths in the next phase.

    Dr Al Nasr Mr. undersecretary of the Ministry of Health and head of the preventive affairs ministry: There is a plan being implemented is divided into two parts, part of which the Ministries of Agriculture and Interior, and the second part played by the Ministry of Health under the supervision of Dr. Hatem Gabali, Minister of Health, where the monitor, especially if patients found that there Navch birds in the house, and then followed the case of a person had a high temperature here in the presence of suspect cases of avian flu has reached the number suspected of being infected with the disease in 3285 people are from the disease entered the hospital during the past year and so far have been taking samples from persons were analyzed in labs the Ministry of Health has been taking samples from the dead birds have been analyzed in the lab veterinary. All of this is after giving the patient Tamiflu tablets or drink [ohlord, I hope THAT is not right and that the journalist got that wrong or that something has been lost in translation here...], according to the situation and if we found through analysis that the negative samples suspect it complements regular treatment and not so far shown positive cases from all of these only 35 the situation including the situation habits.

    He added that training for the ministry trained doctors, nurses, technicians, labs, and work to educate villagers, where this task 13 thousand rural pilot was educated them healthy for educating family members against the dangers of the disease and how to avoid the occurrence and incidence.

    Dr. Nasr says that Mr. world map of the disease is the presence of 310 cases of which 189 died and for Egypt ranked third in the incidence and mortality in the seventh, with the number of deceased 41% of the number of people infected since the first infection Indonesia and India [India?] first in the number of deaths.

    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

  • #2
    Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

    ...the presence of suspect cases of avian flu has reached the number suspected of being infected with the disease in 3285 people are from the disease entered the hospital during the past year....
    The last official total number of suspected cases in Egypt we got was on April 3 (the time before that, which was the first time we heard such a figure, was on Feb 11). On both of those occasions, the total number given was the total number since the beginning of the bf outbreak in Egypt in Feb/March 2006. I'm going to assume the same is the case for this most recent total, even thought the reporter has written "during the past year".

    The first total figure of sus cases given on Feb 11 was 2292.

    The last total figure of sus cases given on Apr 03 was 2862.

    As of June 09 we now have a figure of 3285.

    Feb 11 - Apr 03 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
    Apr 03 - June 09 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

      the presence of suspect cases of avian flu has reached the number suspected of being infected with the disease in 3285 people are from the disease entered the hospital during the past year and so far have been taking samples from persons were analyzed in labs the Ministry of Health has been taking samples from the dead birds have been analyzed in the lab veterinary. All of this is after giving the patient Tamiflu tablets or drink [ohlord, I hope THAT is not right and that the journalist got that wrong or that something has been lost in translation here...],
      Theresa42's concern is that humans infected with H5N1 often test negative if the samples are collected after the antiviral Tamiflu has been administered to the patient. If the reporter's statement is true, there could be more than 35 H5N1 infected individuals in Egypt. Assuming that all individuals that tested "negative" were actually negative, then the clinical attack rate for this select subset of the Egyptian population is about 1% (35/3285).

      Follow-up antibody studies are necessary and should be conducted on the individuals that exhibited influenza-like symptoms to determine if any of the "negative" individuals actually were infected with H5N1.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

        Thanks, Al!

        I'm hoping that it's something that got lost in translation. I know virtually nothing about Arabic grammar or syntax -- but I'm hoping that the machine-translator got that sentence garbled and it should have read: After all of this [testing, etc.], is giving the patient Tamiflu tablets or drink....

        I hope that's what it's meant to say. If anyone speaks/reads Arabic, here is the paragraph/phrase in question (thanks!):
        واشار الدكتور نصر السيد وكيل أول وزارة الصحة ورئيس قطاع الشئون الوقائية بالوزارة إلي أن هناك خطة يجري تنفيذها وهي مقسمة إلي جزءين تقوم بجزء منها وزارتا الزراعة والداخلية‏,‏ والجزء الثاني تقوم به وزارة الصحة تحت إشراف الدكتور حاتم الجبلي وزير الصحة‏,‏ حيث تقوم برصد المرضي خاصة إذا وجدت أن هناك طيورا نافقة في منزل ما‏,‏ وتبعها بعد ذلك حالة لشخص ارتفعت درجة حرارته هنا نشتبه في وجود اصابة بمرض إنفلونزا الطيور وقد بلغ عدد المشتبه في اصابتهم بالمرض‏3285‏ شخصا بالمرض وهم من دخلوا المستشفي خلال العام الماضي وحتي الآن حيث تم أخذ عينات من الأشخاص تم تحليلها في معامل وزارة الصحة وتم أخذ عينات من الطيور النافقة تم تحليلها في المعمل البيطري وكل هذا يتم بعد إعطاء المريض تاميفلو شراب أو أقراص وذلك وفقا للحالة وإذا وجدنا من خلال التحليل أن عينات المشتبه به سلبية فإنه يكمل علاجه العادي وحتي الآن لم تظهر حالات إيجابية من كل هؤلاء سوي‏35‏ حالة بما فيها حالة ميادة‏.
        ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

          Google-translated from Arabic:

          Ministry of Health: Suspected cases of avian flu disease around 3338
          6/18/2007

          Cairo - The Ministry of Health and Population that the total cases of suspected human cases of avian flu hit since the emergence of the disease in Egypt in March last year [2006] about 3338 confirmed a case of suspected infection in 36 cases only the latest situation of the girl child have to Tgian aged four years of Qena currently reserved Hospital Manshiet Bakry Cairo to receive treatment.

          A statement by the Ministry of Health issued on Monday that for injuries among birds, the positioning positive hit since the emergence of the disease and even today, injuring 870 farms and 400 sites between [of] domestic birds.

          ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

            Originally posted by Theresa42
            The last official total number of suspected cases in Egypt we got was on April 3 (the time before that, which was the first time we heard such a figure, was on Feb 11). On both of those occasions, the total number given was the total number since the beginning of the bf outbreak in Egypt in Feb/March 2006. I'm going to assume the same is the case for this most recent total, even thought the reporter has written "during the past year".

            The first total figure of sus cases given on Feb 11 was 2292.

            The last total figure of sus cases given on Apr 03 was 2862.

            As of June 09 we now have a figure of 3285.

            Feb 11 - Apr 03 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
            Apr 03 - June 09 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
            Total figure of sus cases given today, June 18 = ca. 3338

            ca. 53 sus cases in the last 9 days(?).
            ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: EGYPT - "Bird flu still out of control"

              Originally posted by Theresa42
              Google-translated from Arabic:

              Ministry of Health: Suspected cases of avian flu disease around 3338
              6/18/2007

              Cairo - The Ministry of Health and Population that the total cases of suspected human cases of avian flu hit since the emergence of the disease in Egypt in March last year [2006] about 3338 confirmed a case of suspected infection in 36 cases only the latest situation of the girl child have to Tgian aged four years of Qena currently reserved Hospital Manshiet Bakry Cairo to receive treatment.

              (...)

              http://www.masrawy.com/News/2007/Egy...stery_flu.aspx
              Another report...

              Google-translated from Arabic:

              Hatem Gabali [Minister of Health]:
              Three thousand and 338 [3338] suspected case of avian influenza since the emergence of the disease
              The analysis confirms that the virus "fixed" [unchanged] did not modified

              June 19, 2007

              Announced. Hatim al-Jabali, Minister of Health and population that the total cases of suspected human cases of avian flu since the emergence of the disease in Egypt so far amounted to three thousand and 338 cases [3338] including 36 cases of confirmed H5N1 infection.

              The minister said that another case has emerged in Qena Governorate have a girl on Tgian [Dina Ali Taghyan] currently reserved Manshiet Bakry Hospital [in Cairo].

              He noted that the laboratory tests conducted for persons infected or suspects, as well as analysis of infected birds, and all tests confirm that the virus had not modified after moving from another person.

              Qena - Moneim Mansour: Maj. Gen. Magdi Ayoub Qena governor that were cashed million and 500 thousand doses of a vaccine against avian influenza disease in the framework of a plan to vaccinate 2 million to preserve bird villages by the end of next August.

              Assiut [Asyut] - Mahmoud Wagdi: According to investigations conducted by the committees formed by Major General Nabil Al-Assiut Governor, the epicenter of the avian influenza that has emerged in the village of Beni Yahya Qosseya Center in a private farms through the birds were bought from one of the companies operating in the production of chicks in Cairo. The governor said he had been executed 4500 bird. Samples were also contacts of these birds negative.

              http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa...l/detail06.asp [<< not a permalink]
              ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/200

                Two things occur to me after reading this thread. The first is they are testing everyone who is remotely suspected and are eliminating most cases as positive for H5N1. They then as a matter of course prescribe flu medication despite the negative finding. The second thought is they are probably correct in their assumption. After reading the report yesterday clearly stating there were virtually no cases of mild H5N1 in a study of some of Thailands population (see link below), it would be odd to find a very high subclinical rate in Egypt.

                Last edited by Shannon Bennett; June 20, 2007, 12:05 PM.
                Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                Thank you,
                Shannon Bennett

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/200

                  Originally posted by Shannon View Post
                  Two things occur to me after reading this thread. The first is they are testing everyone who is remotely suspected and are eliminating most cases as positive for H5N1. They then as a matter of course prescribe flu medication despite the negative finding. The second thought is they are probably correct in their assumption. After reading the report yesterday clearly stating there were virtually no cases of mild H5N1 in a study of some of Thailands population (see link below), it would be odd to find a very high subclinical rate in Egypt.

                  http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=27467
                  The Thai study was nonsense. They used a cut-off of 40 for the titer, which they said really was a titer of 80 in the CDC's hands. Samples were collected over a year after exposure, and a positive control had a titer that fell from 1280 to 80 in one year, so the cut-off was within a factor of two of a STRONG CONFIRMED positive.

                  This was spoon feeding reporters, who swallowed the nonsense hook, line, and sinker.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/200

                    Originally posted by niman View Post
                    The Thai study was nonsense. They used a cut-off of 40 for the titer, which they said really was a titer of 80 in the CDC's hands. Samples were collected over a year after exposure, and a positive control had a titer that fell from 1280 to 80 in one year, so the cut-off was within a factor of two of a STRONG CONFIRMED positive.
                    I was wondering about those titer levels ... thanks for answering my question before I even managed to get it formulated in my head, Doc!

                    Also, I thought the fact that the majority of people sampled were male might have been (was probably!) a problem. What about the women in Thailand? Aren't they also taking care of the 'backyard poultry' like almost everywhere else in the world...?
                    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/200

                      Yet one more reason to rejoice in the kind of people we have here at FluTrackers. How many would be able to read the report and realize the the testing procedure was poor. Thanks Niman for the insight.
                      Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                      Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                      Thank you,
                      Shannon Bennett

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/'06

                        Happened across some more human suspected case figures in an article in a French medical journal from February of this year (hat-tip, lili61!). It gives the total number of suspected cases in Egypt for 2006, Jan 2007 and Feb 2007:


                        So, to sum up:

                        Total figure of human suspected cases in 2006 = 1991

                        Total figure of human suspected cases in Jan 2007 = 207

                        Total figure of human suspected cases in Feb 2007 = 147

                        Total figure of human suspected cases as of Feb 11, 2007 = 2292.

                        Total figure of human suspected cases as of Apr 03, 2007 = 2862.

                        Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 09, 2007 = 3285.

                        Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338

                        Feb 11, 2007 - Apr 03, 2007 (ca. 7 weeks) = 570 sus cases
                        Apr 03, 2007 - Jun 09, 2007 (ca. 9.5 weeks) = 423 sus cases
                        Jun 09, 2007 - Jun 18, 2007 = ca. 53 sus cases
                        ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3338 total suspected cases since 03/200

                          From previous reports, total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338.

                          This report says that a total of 3039 have been put "in isolation under suspicion of carrying the virus."
                          Hat-tip, Solitaire!

                          Egyptian health authorities deny reports about new case of bird flu
                          Health 8/2/2007 7:20:00 PM

                          (...)

                          "Ever since the outbreak of the disease in Egypt at the beginning of last year, some 3,039 people were put in isolation under suspicion of carrying the virus," the statement said....

                          http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesP...56&Language=en
                          Last edited by Theresa42; August 2, 2007, 11:02 PM.
                          ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            201 sus cases since mid-June

                            Google-translated from Arabic:

                            [Ministry of] Health denies the existence of casualties Avian Borg Al-Arab
                            8/2/2007

                            (...)

                            The statement pointed out that the case was isolated in 3539 on suspicion of being infected with avian influenza disease so far, since the emergence of the disease in Egypt early last year, has confirmed 38 cases infection died, including 15 cases and recovered the rest of the 23 state thanks to the medical service provided in hospitals and the Ministry of Health and Population Due to the cooperation citizens and initiative to the nearest hospital to take medical advice.

                            http://www.masrawy.com/News/2007/Egy...2/birdflu.aspx
                            Something seems to have gotten 'lost in translation' in that KUNA report (post #13 above) -- that should be 3,539 suspected cases since March '06 -- not 3,039.

                            So, that's 201 suspected cases in the 6 1/2 weeks from (roughly) mid-June until (roughly) the end of July/beginning of Aug. Obviously, we haven't heard reports about all of them.

                            Total figure of human suspected cases as of June 18, 2007 = ca. 3338.

                            Total figure of human suspected cases as of Aug 02, 2007 = 3539.
                            ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: EGYPT - &quot;Bird flu still out of control&quot; / 3539 total suspected cases since 03/200

                              So, that's 201 suspected cases in the 6 1/2 weeks from (roughly) mid-June until (roughly) the end of July/beginning of Aug. Obviously, we haven't heard reports about all of them.
                              I just did a count and we've picked up news reports on only 32 suspected cases since mid-June (June 18) -- 34 if you count the 2 cases that were confirmed as having H5N1 since mid-June.

                              That's not a very good record. Last time I checked, we were picking up ca. 1 in every 4 suspected cases -- the past month-and-a-half it's been more like 1 in every 6. And, it hasn't been from a lack of checking the Egyptian news reports (apart from me, there's a couple of people -- pugmom & UK-Bird -- over at FW checking the Arab press pretty regularly).

                              For some reason, suspected bf cases are not being reported so much in the Egyptian press these days.
                              ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                              Comment

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